Noncitizens number in the hundreds of thousands in each of the seven most fiercely contested battleground states expected to decide the Nov. 5 presidential election, and research suggests more than 1 million of them could vote nationally if past voting patterns continue.
Of the seven battleground states, Georgia has the largest number of adult noncitizens at 787,588, according to numbers assembled by the Center for Immigration Studies.
North Carolina follows with 726,079 noncitizens, according to data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau in the first quarter of 2024 and analyzed by CIS at the request of The Daily Signal.
The third highest number of noncitizens in a battleground state is Arizona, with 611,717 ages 18 or older.
The Center for Immigration Studies, a think tank, advocates enforcement of federal border and immigration laws.
Pennsylvania has 516,123 voting-age noncitizens, according to CIS, and Michigan has 271,138. Nevada is next with 258,736 and Wisconsin, with 129,600, has the smallest number of noncitizens among the seven swing states, CIS says.
“In some states even if only a modest portion of noncitizens voted, it could possibly flip the state, as some states are likely to be decided by less than 30,000 votes,” Steven Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, told The Daily Signal. “Of course, that does not mean it has actually happened or will happen.”
“Noncitizens” is an umbrella term that includes both legal but unnaturalized residents as well as illegal immigrants.
What isn’t knowable is how many of these individuals are registered to vote or would vote in the Nov. 5 election.
However, a recent study by the Only Citizens Vote Coalition determined that if noncitizens vote at the same rate in 2024 as in 2008, about 1.5 million could cast ballots for president and other offices. This finding is consistent with separate research by Just Facts, a research institute that estimates between 1 million and 2.7 million noncitizens likely would vote.
Both studies attempted to update numbers from one in an academic journal by professors from Old Dominion University and George Mason University, which determined that about 6.4% of noncitizens voted.
Although Democrats and left-leaning media outlets have disputed the findings of that 2014 academic research, in recent years several blue and red states have reported numerous cases in which noncitizens registered to vote and went on to vote.
Just Facts, basing its research on the most recent data, determined that 10% to 27% of noncitizens are illegally registered to vote in the United States. Just Facts estimates that 5% to 13% of noncitizens will vote in this year’s election.
The study, released in March, cites Census Bureau data finding that over 19 million noncitizens live in the United States.
“My study is not extrapolating. It uses the newest data to ascertain the newest numbers,” James Agresti, president of Just Facts, told The Daily Signal.
The study from Just Facts also concludes:
Given the estimates above and the fact that more than 20 million noncitizen adults live in the U.S., roughly 1 million to 2.7 million of them will illegally vote in 2024 unless stronger election integrity measures are implemented. This could easily overturn the will of the American people in close major elections.
So do the 2008 numbers for noncitizen voting apply to 2024? Maybe, says Jesse Richman, an associate professor of political science at Old Dominion University who was the lead author of the heavily cited study. But it’s not a certainty, he warns.
“There are variations and different sources of information on noncitizen voting rates,” Richman told The Daily Signal. “Those sources provide a range of different numbers. Many are lower figures. Keep in mind, there are substantial uncertainties about the magnitude of the problem.”
He noted that each side of the political spectrum tends to estimate the extent of the problem differently.
“Democrats lean too far in dismissing noncitizen voting as a nonissue,” Richman said. “Republicans sometimes lean too far into characterizing it as the monster that ate democracy.”
Among the seven battleground states, The Heritage Foundation’s Election Integrity Scorecard ranks Georgia—with the most voting-age noncitizens—as the best state for citizenship verification in voter registration. It earns the maximum of four points for that category. Georgia is second place overall on Heritage’s scorecard.
Arizona comes in third place for best verification of citizenship, with three out of four points. Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin each got zero points for citizenship verification.
Ken Cuccinelli, national chairman of the Election Transparency Initiative, says he has doubts that noncitizen votes will surpass 1 million. Even so, he says, these votes would be enough to tilt an election outcome.
“I would be shocked if the number is that high. Still, a congressional seat in Iowa was decided by six votes in 2020. A presidential election in a state can be moved by 10,000 to 20,000 votes,” Cuccinelli told The Daily Signal. “The Biden administration’s open border combined with Bidenbucks will make the problem worse.”
The term “Bidenbucks” refers to President Joe Biden’s executive order in 2021 requiring federal agencies to work with nonprofit organizations to crank up voter registration and participation.
“I don’t know the effect that Executive Order 14019 will have because the administration has stonewalled everything,” Cuccinelli said, referring to Biden’s order. “I usually count on the incompetence of the federal government when it works outside its mission scope not to have much impact.”
In 2024, the number of noncitizens totals 25.7 million, according to the Center for Immigration Studies, and of those 23.2 million are voting age. That’s up from a reported total of 21.6 million noncitizens in 2008.
Under current law, 17 jurisdictions across California, Maryland, Vermont, and the District of Columbia allow noncitizen voting for local elections only—such as for mayor, city council, or school board.
The 2014 study from professors at Old Dominion and George Mason universities looked at both the 2008 and 2010 elections and determined that noncitizen voting in 2008 tilted North Carolina in favor of Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain in the presidential race. A different result in North Carolina would not have affected the ultimate outcome of the presidential election, however.
The study also found that noncitizen voting tilted the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota in favor of Democrat Al Franken over the Republican incumbent, Norm Coleman.
Nationally, more than 81% of noncitizens voted for Obama.
The Daily Signal previously reported that the Boston Election Department removed 70 noncitizens from the city’s voter rolls and that 22 had voted in the city, according to information obtained by a watchdog group, the Public Interest Legal Foundation.
Last May, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, a Republican, ordered 137 noncitizens removed from the voter rolls.
The previous May, the Virginia Department of Elections removed 1,481 noncitizens from the rolls; 335 noncitizens voted in Virginia elections over the previous four years.
In North Carolina, an audit found that 1,454 registrants didn’t appear to be naturalized before Election Day 2014 and would have to be challenged at the polls. Out of those, 89 appeared at polling places, 24 were challenged, and 11 of those challenges were sustained or justified.
In Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, the voter registrations of 139 illegal immigrants were canceled through self-reporting since 2006. Of those, 27% cast at least one vote.
Fred Lucas is chief news correspondent and manager of the Investigative Reporting Project for The Daily Signal.
Reprinted with permission from The Daily Signal – By Fred Lucas
The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of AMAC or AMAC Action.
Well, let’s see now. Biden supposedly won by 44,000 votes spread across the critical swing states in 2020 to get the necessary Electoral College votes after we all got to see live the types of activities that went on in the middle of the night. The swing states are the same swing states today as they were back in 2020.
Now while the author is using numbers from the Center for Immigration Studies, which tend to track well below the more accurate BLS data, the general count is good enough to prove a point here. What would happen if say 5 or 10 percent of newly imported 10 to 20 million illegal aliens, most of which are adult males, can be registered to vote Democrat? Mmmm. This isn’t hard folks. I trust I don’t have to spell it out for you. It’s simple math.
There was a very specific reason the Democrats imported in millions upon millions of the least educated and most easily manipulated type of people from mostly socialist or communist countries around the world. That is to try and ensure guaranteed wins in all future elections. That the American people sat by for 3 1/2 years while these illegals streamed into the country and were distributed all around the country to change voting districts is amazing and sad. However, at this late stage, you can’t undo the damage that has already been done. Now at the 11th hour, we get to read how the Democrats will of course use these illegals to try to steal yet another election.
I watched a report on one of the conservative news networks. The lamestream media will never report that there is a community of ILLEGAL ALIENS outside of Houston where home builders are directly financing their homes, so citizenship need not be proven. That community is quickly growing and I’ll bet that most of these ILLEGALS are registered to vote with the assistance of NGOs. It’s only a matter of time before Texas turns blue, unless Trump wins in November and can actually get the ILLEGALS deported (he’ll face the same legal BS that he did during his first term). A blue Texas means the end of our Republic.
Of course they will vote. The Democrats will see to that.
dems love to cheat because they can’t win HONESTLY……
We are missing the boat if we don’t act fast. Many organizations have already found many dead people who ‘voted’. But what has been missed is checking the super many fake votes for people who were never born and never die bu exist on the Board of Elections official computer file that is supposed to contain only actual people who come to register to vote. What has been accomplished is adding fake people directly on the computer without actual using real live people. In my case where I spell my first name Sidney, now the BOE computer has the name Sydney on the file. The data elements from Sidney are duplicated for Sydney and as such he is claimed to be born on the same date I was and he lives in my home. But he doesn’t exist. His data elements were copied from my record to his. The exception element is the registration number. Just like Social Security number are unique to the individual so are registration number and that make Sydney look like a regular voter. Let explain what has taken place in my opinion. I come from a long working career of computer programming and therefoe recognize things the average person might not recognize. I feel a programmer (probably from the BOE staff) either did this himself or was asked to do by the Dems to add fake votes to the official voter file. It is easy to do this because you bypass the actual person comong to register. The programmer will have the computer check if the record being read from the computer is one of many possibilities. For example, the name Sidney and the the program will add a new voting record with the name Sydney. The other data elements would be taken from the Sidney record and we now have a new record that is fake.
Consider the first name William. This can yield 3 fake records, the first using the name Willie, the second Billy and the third Bill, a nickname for William. If the official file has 1 million real records accross the country with the name William then we have created 3 million fake records for William. This how Trump lost, Karie Lake lost etc lost, and this november the Dem will easily win the Presidency, Senate and House and possible lead to a different America we are used too. Even today I can show you my mail from the BOE that I receive, one for Sidney and another for Sydney. What I am telling you is real. Donations of trillions and great polls ratings will not help.
I hope you take me serious. I can tell you what and how steps need to be taken to prove what I am saying and hopefully take the results to the supreme court and keep America as we know it.
I am a member of AMAC and I believe you should contact me to hear my advice to fix the situation. Please respond to this email and give me an appropriate phone numbe r to call and we can quietly get started. It is necessary to keep this quiet so we can do what is needed to prove and fix this. Sid
To Rerun 2020?
So much corruption going on
Tha fact that non- citizens can vote in elections is unimaginable. The Founding Fathers are no doubt rolling over in their graves
Should be entitled “Places You Don’t Want to Move To”…. the first state to secede some day is where I’m moving. Problem is they escape their own messes, move to a neighboring state, and screw that one up too!
These criminal minded Demonicrats are attempting to cheat the entire election system! They are not even Americans anymore because they hate our American values and culture! They are more like George Soros and Son, as domestic terrorists trying to undermine our entire system for complete power over your life! They want to gain all power, steal America’s wealth and send you and your family to a leftist government re-education camp for “training”! I see a civil war coming in the future because most Americans are tired of this BS and will step up to stop it if it comes to that!
“If it be asked, what is the most sacred duty and the greatest source of our security in a Republic? The answer would be, an inviolable respect for the Constitution and laws.” Alexander Hamilton
I agree with Pres Trump to make our people first and cleanup America of illegals who are taking our jobs, creating havoc of crimes, costing us billions to take care of them while our own people are suffering. Americans first, our children in schools first, our seniors first, our Veterans first and most of all NO MORE FENTANYL from China & Mexico to KILL our people. MAGA PLEASE. iT’LL BE GOOD TO SEND HOLLYWEEDERS OUT OF OUR COUNTRY TOO, AS THEY ARE TOXIC TO OUR YOUNG. May God bless America with wisdom & truth.Amen.
Regarding all these illegal aliens. Folks, you do realize there remains a LOT of vacant out of sight land around right? No security cameras monitoring everything……….just wild vacant land.
There are also shovels with which to bury “things”. Things that don’t belong here. Of course one might question going through all the trouble of burying such trash as the ID they carry bears no resemblance to reality. One must also remember that buzzards and coyotes need to eat too.
We don’t need the government to resolve this issue. Time to just get out into nature, empty that pickup bed of our unwanted “things” and soon enough when little Paco Jr’s start coming up missing in droves, the creatures may just decide to slither their way back home.
Gee, I wonder if they decided to for Republican. HA HAHA ????Not!
I’m so sick of this illegal alien BS. Stop playing games with these people and get very serious. Any non-US Citizen caught illegally voting in ANY of our elections should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, have their DNA and all other vital statistics taken and entered into our database, and be made to pay a hefty fine. They, and ALL of their family members, should then be expelled from our Country and NEVER be allowed to return. Anyone with the DNA of that individual should never be allowed in our Country again. If you don’t want to follow our rules and obey our laws, then you don’t need to be here, and we certainly don’t want you here, EVER!
Sorry … but one non citizen voting in an American election … even for dog catcher, must less president it WRONG. It must be stopped … if the sanctity of the vote is to remain.
Tarjeta verde, si? Cuidadania, NO! But not if you have a criminal record or have ever been deported. Rounding up 17-18 million people is impossible. We don’t have enough military or police to do it. There are the millions who came in over the years before Biden’s crap.
I’ve seen our government start wars since the Vietnam era, often lying to the American public, as both Bush Administrations did. So many lies. The way Biden came to power, I’m convinced was a con job. With our political representatives as they are, I believe we are in for a repeat of 2020. How quickly we have fallen, and how deep our fall has been. I have little hope for our country’s future.
The fix is in and we are all F’d. Best prepare emotionally and physically for the worst, no matter who is elected
If federal election laws as stated in the constitution were upheld, this wouldn’t be an issue. Voter ID with proof of citizenship NEEDS to be done, but unfortunately our elected officials are too lame to take action.
Does the law really protect the American people? To my knowledge, illegals are not allowed to vote and how can the far left be higher than the law.