AMAC Exclusive – By Aaron Flanigan
With just under one year to go until the highly anticipated 2024 presidential election, the only certainty is uncertainty. Here are five factors that could upend the 2024 race by next Election Day.
Joe Biden’s Age
Few issues have dominated the 2024 presidential election quite like Joe Biden’s age. As the oldest president in American history with a well-established record of physical and verbal gaffes, there is serious doubt about whether Biden will in fact be at the top of his party’s ticket come next November—or whether party leaders will eventually be forced to replace him with a younger face like Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom.
If Democrats are forced to boot Biden from the ticket, it could hamper their eventual nominee’s odds of retaining the White House.
One Democrat congressman, Dean Phillips of Minnesota, has recognized these risks and has launched a primary campaign against Biden. “My inability to attract other candidates, to inspire the president to recognize that it is time, compels me to serve my country because it appears that President Joe Biden is going to lose the next election,” Phillips said at his October campaign launch.
But whether Phillips’s warnings will ultimately prove true—and whether his fellow Democrats will heed them in time—remains to be seen.
Third-Party Candidates
From Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s independent campaign to Cornel West’s longshot White House bid to the threat of yet another third-party ticket from centrist group No Labels, there is no shortage of independent and third-party campaigns this cycle. How they might affect the final outcome of next year’s general election is anyone’s guess.
As the Associated Press recently reported, “There’s little concern that the independent or third-party candidates would actually win the presidency, but they could siphon support from the ultimate Democratic and Republican nominees.” The report continued: “A heightened sense of concern is spreading especially among Democratic officials, who see the outsiders as a dangerous wildcard that harkens back to 2016, when Green Party nominee Jill Stein may have enabled Trump’s razor-thin victory by winning a small portion of the vote.”
Polling has offered few solid indications about whether Kennedy’s presence in the race benefits Donald Trump or Joe Biden more. Following West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin’s announcement that he will not seek reelection next fall, speculation has mounted that he will run on the centrist No Labels ticket. Though conventional wisdom suggests that Trump or another Republican candidate would likely benefit more from Manchin’s presence in the race, it remains too early to be certain.
Biden’s Lawfare Against Donald Trump
In the not-so-distant past, the prospect of a presidential administration weaponizing the Department of Justice (DOJ) and federal law enforcement agencies against the president’s chief political opponent would have been seen as patently un-American and a shockingly authoritarian power grab.
But that is undoubtedly exactly what the country has seen by the Biden administration against Donald Trump. Over the last several months, the Biden DOJ and state-level prosecutors have launched an unprecedented series of politically motivated indictments of Donald Trump – attacks that have grown in intensity as Trump has expanded his polling edge over Biden.
Whether any of the left’s indictments against Trump will ultimately result in a conviction from a far-left jury remains to be seen. But thus far, they have primarily served as major political boosters for Trump, rallying conservative voters to his side in unprecedented numbers.
As the first vote of primary season approaches, the former president will almost certainly continue to face baseless legal warfare from the left.
Conflicts Overseas
Thanks in large part to the Biden administration’s weakness on the world stage, war is now raging not only in Ukraine, but also in the Middle East—laying the groundwork for a tumultuous 2024 that could have massive implications for the 2024 presidential race.
These ongoing foreign conflicts have already been a major source of disagreement within the Republican primary field, with populist candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy calling for less American aid to Ukraine while neoconservative favorites like Nikki Haley have pushed for a more interventionist role both in Ukraine and in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s handling of the conflict in Israel could put him in a politically precarious position. As Austin Sarat observed in The Hill, Biden’s public support for Israel’s right to defend itself “is costing him support from members of the liberal wing of the Democratic Party and elsewhere.” Yet, Sarat continues, “if he is less supportive of Israel, or even tempers his commitments by pointing out the need to safeguard the lives of Palestinian people, he could lose large segments of America’s Jewish population and other political moderates.”
How these overseas conflicts might ultimately affect Biden’s reelection bid remains in question—but they will almost certainly continue to be significant factors as Election Day nears.
Biden Corruption
In recent weeks, investigations by House Republicans have revealed that Joe Biden received personal checks from his brother and sister-in-law that were paid with money they laundered from Communist China. Moreover, Americans have learned over the last several months that the Bidens received millions of dollars in alleged bribes from foreign countries, that the FBI knowingly covered up Biden’s bribery scheme with a Ukrainian energy company, and that Attorney General Merrick Garland has likely interfered with the DOJ’s investigations into the Biden family, among other groundbreaking revelations.
As James Comer, Chairman of the House Oversight Committee, observed, “Bank records don’t lie, and coupled with witness testimony, they reveal that Joe Biden abused his public office for his family’s financial gain.”
Though the media has largely failed to accurately cover Biden’s growing mountain of pay-to-play schemes, the GOP investigation could turn up even more damning evidence that is impossible to ignore and would seriously influence the outcome of the 2024 race.
These factors and many more are paving the way for a historically chaotic election next year. With less than 12 months until Election Day, voters can rest assured that 2024 will be politically unforgettable.
Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.
It is not Just JOE BIDEN it is the DEMOCRAT PARTY PERIOD! This is the OBAMA third TERM.
Thank a DEMOCRAT today and every day and don’t forget to thank your RINO friends too!
With the exception of Trump there is not one person willing to grab the bull by the horns and wrestle it to the ground which is needed to deal with the mess we are in domestically and internationally
The ELITES the WEF and the UN are pushing for a new world order and O with the DNC are working on making Amerika a third world country. This was so evident with the meeting ole Joe had with Xi in SF. After all they first compromised ole Joe with bribes by Xi and by indicting Trump on made up charges. Jan 6 was a dem plan set up by SOTH. O is still pulling all the strings. One day the truth will come out how O manipulated the election in 2020 only by that time nobody living now will experience it. Far too many people still don’t see what is happening in our country.
Bidens age hasn’t anything to do with it- he’s always been the bottom of the class! His senility just makes it worse! But that’s a nice picture in the article… I see Larry and Curly but no Moebama?
You can’t say the far left crat party isn’t run by non American valued elected officials. The mere fact that not one of them has condemned Biden’s inept disaster open border policy proves that. The crat party has sat back and allowed the absorption of every weirdo group to come out of the wood work. They give them ALL credibility as well. Sex club drag queens singing to children, allowing boys, girls, men and women to switch genders, allowing elected foreigners to spew anti American trash. Crippling the economy and spending like there’s a bottomless bank of money. Lousy policies EVERYWHERE as well. It’s unbelievable that there’s a substantial amount of people saying, “yea,..give me more of that” !!!!
Fuhrer biden is a treasonous, hate mongering, morally depraved, sick, twisted, fascist pig!
Where on earth is justice? Why is Biden not in trouble for all his criminal acts? And Trump has been charged again and again for doing nothing wrong…
Nothing proves the fraudulence of the election of 2020 more than the consequences of the policies which have been allowed or implemented since Biden took office on January 20,2021. Who, in his right mind, would have voted for those?
You missed something that could be considered a subset of #3 “Lawfare”. You are making the assumption that a) that the election will take place in 2024. I could easily see the Left declaring some sort of “emergency” to “postpone” the vote. Or there is something we have seen before, b) that the election will be just flat stolen again. Either would be done with the support of the Media and of the GOPe which prefers a Democrat dictatorship to a return to an American Republic under the Constitution and the equal rule of law.
The Democrat/Socialist Party with their radical and divisive “Equity”, “Gender” and “Climate Change” agenda & platform are now facing the harsh reality that the majority of voters is fed up with this garbage. Weaponizing the DOJ, which is joke in itself, to keep Donald Trump from running again for President has only benefitted Trump. This country only grew to become the most powerful country in the world due to “Pluralism” or uniting many people for the benefit of the country.
Our law enforcement agencies,liberal judges, and media have clearly aided and abetted the democrat party and Just like the Russian election hoax, these new charges are baseless and without facts, just made up sound bytes from the Trump haters and democrats who will do anything to take trump out of the running.NO ONE in this country could properly defend themselves against such a boatload of accusations. And thats just what these are, accusations. The accusations started before Trump even took office and how many have been proven? NONE
Historically, this level of 3rd party candidate impact on Presidential elections generally means the two major parties have drifted too far to the extremes — i.e. their tents are no longer big enough. Whichever party corrects more back toward the middle will win. If neither do then it will depend which side the 3rd parties take a bigger bite out of — or it could go to the House (where Republicans have a distinct advantage).
Unfortunately Conservatives only make up about one-third of the electorate — you can’t win solely on Conservative votes. We have to appeal to those in the “middle”, and that means compromising. *NOT* compromising with the Left, never, but we do have to compromise with the “middle”. Just enough compromise to win elections and no more. That’s a tight line to walk but we must do it as the alternative is far far worse.
The Constitution is loaded with compromises and because of the structure of gov’t it lays out, it demands compromise of whoever is to govern. It’s that simple. You’re not going to get over 50% of the vote if you don’t lay out a vision that is to the liking of over 50% of the population — that involves compromise.
The other part of the equation is getting better at explaining our values and communicating our vision — our politicians are horrible at that (with a lot of “help” from the biased media). If the populace believes bad “facts” then they will vote badly. If the populace only sees the over-simplified version of things without understanding the long term consequences and follow-on effects, the nuances, then the populace will vote badly. It’s on us to see that the population has the information they need to make good decisions and vote accordingly.
We need to do both, compromise and to communicate better. Hopefully, the better we do the second, the less we have to do the first, but we must prioritize winning elections. It’s far easier to show people than to tell people. If we are in power, we can show them how our policies work better, when out of power all you can do is talk and talk is cheap.
No former president has ever been more unfairly attacked than Trump. But my fear is that he will talk about this fact ad nauseam rather than giving the message of hope that we need—how will all the messy problems the democrats created will be solved? I hope and pray that he will listen to those who urge him to stay positive and focused on the future! He can sue the pants off everyone who falsely accused him when he leaves office.
What amazes me (not really) is how some of the Lefties can’t figure out why others of their ilk are anti-Semitic and spreading LIES. These first ones (like Dershowitz) spread lies for years about other topics. Did they not expect that to rub off on others? How about the totally FALSE narrative of “poor” Geoge Floyd and his BLM “supporters?”
BEJING BIDEN IS AN ILLEGITIMATE INCOHERENT INCOMPETENT BOOB
Good let the Dems consume the Chaos they seed day 1
Said it before, the only conceivable way the dnc can win is by cheating…again.
fjb
I hope Javier Milei’s point of view will be translated and made available to the American public. A candidate who offers a reprieve from statism and freedom in its place should be elected if the public knows what is at stake.
It has been a continual campaign of chaos since the stolen election
The democrats are the Chaos of any campaign.
It’s certainly a poop show. My problems with Biden are too numerous to list. I don’t even know Phillips. I don’t trust Kennedy or Manchin. The other potential democrats are just noise makers. That leaves Trump. He is my choice but I worry that his temper and somewhat vindictive nature will get the better of him. Don’t need a ramped up war involving nuke exchange.
It will be interesting to watch. But sometimes I wonder how many more free elections we will have.
Everyone talks Biden and Trump? What if the Dems plan is wait till Aug, 2024 and Biden steps down. All his delegates and super- delegates go to— Michelle Obama and VP Gavin Newsom at Chicago conventions? Trump and VP Pompeo ? No-Labels is Romney and VP Manchin? Independent Kennedy and VP Judge Napolitano ? Then you have Jill Stein– Cornel West– Chase Oliver With a field like this a president could win with only 40% of the vote. And we could see a 4 TH and 5 TH Obama term with all the same players we have now. I would like to see a poll on this. This is my fear because we would have a Democrat Socialized country.
This is an annoying article.
I know you must be calm and try not to sound too partisan. But this O’Biden administration is destroying our country and it isn’t his age, but his infirmity in health and his terrible handling of all things political that brings the danger. Our “information age” brings more lies than knowledge. Dangerous people are allowed in at the border and this is stealing our country’s ethos.
I dislike intensely these “objective” analyses of who is running, who are up and down in polls, and who are spoilers. We have to get serious and fix the messes – turn back to our roots and win elections.
Harris, Newsome, R. Kennedy, Jr., Manchin, all not conservatives, all would continue the destruction, and I don’t want AMAC giving them attention.
This is no time to be objective or calm. I don’t feel calm. These fake indictments of Trump are stealing our liberty and making me very, very much less calm.
What is going on in universities and on the streets is bad. Where are the parents of these noisemakers? How many came here illegally?
Trump 2024 and stop voting for Democrats until they display love of country and our Constitution again.
Mark Levin is right.
WHY has no-one launched a campaign to Legitimize our Election process?
Biden seems to be failing cognitively. But, the democrats do not care, and apparently neither does Biden’s wife. It is more about retaining political power. Whoever is really running things in Washington is running our country to the ground. Either we have a mountain load of incompetents or they are deliberate intentions to ruin this great country. These people with the help of their crony corrupt media painted Donald Trump as the bad guy, when actually they are the ones doing all the very things they have accused him of. This is what corruption looks like. Over half of our voting population have been lied to and manipulated. And it will happen again and again unless these folks wake up. Just look at all the nonsense that is going on right now. This should convince everyone.
Trump/Noem. The VP pick will be crucial or it will be another 4 and out for the GOP
joe cannot run on his record so he stoops to a hateful rhetoric campaign.
I don’t think that it’s Bribem’s age, it’s more that his mental capacity is obviously failing and he, with his finger on the nuclear trigger, can’t find his way off a stage. If that isn’t frightening, I don’t know what would scare you.
Although there’s observable chaos in the Dem’s 2024 campaign, it’s premature to assume that the Left will not be successful. We are witnessing the greatest level of delusion among American citizens (especially young people) along with the collapse of nearly every institution that was previously held in high esteem. I’m convinced that the Left will choose to bring down the entire system rather than yield to America’s Constitution and its traditional values.
The left, now without covid cover to allow mass cheating, needs to get a better puppet to replace Joe. They seem to be in a panic. Like watching a car crash in slow motion and they can’t do a thing about it. Their only hope is putting Trump in jail. But like the Whos in Whoville (Grinch who stole Christmas) they still celebrated Christmas after the Grinch stole all the decorations and gifts, Republicans will celebrate his re-election even if from a jail cell.
This current administration has rocked the country with inflation, lies and corruption. We felt the first blow when he stabbed the oil industry in the heart with the “Squad’s” plan to remove fossil fuel from our country. The Climate Change drug dealers have convinced the simple minded citizens that we have to bow to their power and snort the message they concocted.
We have to continue discussions about the corruption of this left wing party. They will get away with it as usual if the wrong person gets elected. We also need to be sure the vote count is correct and not planted with illegal ballots.
I wouldn’t underestimate the third party candidates this time. Both Trump and Biden are historically unpopular, and may get more so a year from now. The Israel-Palestinian War is tearing the Democrats apart. The siren song of “moderates” is likely to be played by the media – especially if Biden’s support collapses. The Dem convention in Chicago is likely to be a disaster if the Israel war is still going on, which is almost certain. I could see a third party candidate coming in 2nd or 3rd in electoral votes, throwing the contest to the House. And if the contest may go to the House, the competitive congressional seat for Alaska becomes incredibly important.
Chaos – an essential ingredient for a communist takeover. Like back in 1917 – the soldiers revolted because the Tsars didn’t have a battle plan and they were they ones who suffered. Then as they found themselves with a nation on their hands and no plan – chaos – enter the Marxist – Trotsky and Lenin… and the world has been fighting Communism ever since. Ditto post WW2 China…now its here – and the DNC/CPUSA are pushing the chaos they created with the Nancy-Pencil-neck impeachments and the fake J6 prosecutions.Somebody in the DNC already knows who the Marxist 2024 candidate is. All we are witnessing is the ‘chaos’. Best not to pay attention to any of it.
We already know all of this and frankly with the left and unfortunately too much of the right, they don’t care. They are to stupid and ignorant or have financial ties to the democrat machine that they would elect a farm cow as long as the label democrat was hung around his neck.
We already know all of this and frankly with the left and unfortunately too much of the right, they don’t care. They are to stupid and ignorant or have financial ties to the democrat machine that they would elect a farm cow as long as the label democrat was hung around his neck.
I wish this was published in every newspaper and on news site. This needs to be common knowledge before January.
This article is a joke. The author is too scared to add their own name… Blatantly awful journalism
Biased, misinformed and over-hyped propaganda. Grow up and present your information in a fact-based, objective and unbiased manner and I may come back.
I am no fan of the Democratic Party or the left, but to label the charges brought against former President Trump in the classified records case as “baseless legal warfare” seems overreaching. If only part of the accusations are true, he could have easily compromised our national security and the lives of many undercover operatives. Right, left, or center, this should be one issue whose importance on which we can all agree.