Mutiny of the Middle?

The political center in American politics is a large but often elusive voter bloc, frequently decisive in elections as it adapts itself to the constantly changing social and economic environment.

To understand how this political center fits into the overall structure of American politics, it is helpful to return to middle-school science class, and specifically to look at how the magnetic north and south poles respond to the Earth’s volatile geological change.

There are two sets of poles on Earth. The geographic ones are abstract mathematical points that do not change. The real geologic poles, often a notable distance from the abstract ones, are determined by the earth’s magnetic forces, which are constantly changing, and therefore are themselves changing their location. Over long intervals, the two poles even flip, and the south pole becomes the north pole. Humans have survived these very rare flips, but if one occurred now, modern civilization could be upended.

Some political strategists would have us believe that, like geographic poles, voters are merely abstractions that will remain fixed, unchanging. But the reality is that, like the Earth’s geologic poles, voters can behave in unanticipated ways.

The 2024 presidential election appears to be one of those occasions when the traditional electoral model is being taken to its far edges, and this is creating a rare moment when, seeing only unacceptable choices, the usually invisible sector of the middle electorate mutinies against the political establishments which have frustrated them.

This theme has often been explored in drama, film and literature. But two historic events, the Kiel Mutiny (imperial Germany, 1918) and the Potemkin Mutiny (czarist Russia, 1905) actually led to far-reaching political consequences.

As of this writing, it seems that the nomination contests of the two major parties are over, barely after they have begun. Incumbent President Joe Biden, despite his age, physical frailty, and persistent low voter favorability, has been imposed on the party of Democrats. An incumbent running for re-election rarely has serious opposition within his or her own party, but rarely, if ever, has someone like Joe Biden come for re-election to the voters with so many negatives. Poll after poll among Democrats shows they want another candidate; and poll after poll shows Biden losing the general election to any major Republican opponent — especially now to the likely GOP nominee, former President Donald Trump.

Trump himself enjoys continued strong support among the new base of the Republican Party, but he is bitterly opposed by a notable number of the old GOP base who find him distasteful and politically unacceptable. When the 2024 campaign began, there was some possibility that a new, younger conservative figure, most notably Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, would lead the 2024 GOP ticket.

Using legal tactics, however, Democrats were determined to keep Trump off the 2024 ballot, or failing that, to use criminal proceedings to wound him so deeply with voters that he could not win in the general election, even against Joe Biden.

The result of this unprecedented campaign, however, was to revive Trump’s support with his base and among many voters who had not supported him previously, who saw the string of criminal indictments and a national legal effort to keep him off several state ballots as dangerously hyper-partisan and a threat to the rule of law.

This is the kind of political environment which has historically created much interest in third party presidential tickets.

The few Democrats who actually spoke up and acted against Biden’s renomination have been successfully suppressed by the liberal party establishment, but could easily pose a threat to the presidential ticket in 2024 running as third party candidates. Most notable of these are Robert Kennedy, Jr., and Congressman Dean Phillips.

West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin might have had some appeal, but he has announced he won’t run for president in 2024. Green Party and socialist-style parties are already on many state ballots.

On the conservative side, there will be Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates. Most notable of third-party efforts, the new No Labels Party, is already on several state ballots, and its leaders say they will have a prominent Democrat and a prominent Republican on their ticket.

Even if centrist or middle voters do not express themselves with a third-party vote, he or she has several other significant choices to attempt a mutiny in the 2024 presidential election. Perhaps the most significant of these is simply staying home or choosing not to vote for president while making choices down-ballot.

Many voters are already hostile to party propaganda, and skeptical of most establishment media. So-called fake news and AI have created doubt about social media and the internet in general. With the formal part of the 2024 campaign barely begun, American politics, especially for the middle or centrist voter, are in unprecedented disarray.

Mr. Trump’s trials are ahead, as are more inevitable examples of Mr. Biden’s aging and physical frailty. A very large number of American voters wanted other choices, and prevented from having them, are likely to stage an historic political mutiny in 2024, the forms of which are still unknown, and the consequences of which we cannot yet truly anticipate.