When I invented the portmanteau “Minnewisowa” (Minnesota-Wisconsin-Iowa) in a 2004 op ed in The Washington Times, I did not anticipate the kind of unconventional politics which would erupt in the U.S. only 20 years later.
But my premise that the demographic similarities of these three adjacent midwestern states meant they would vote alike in a presidential election, and thus that they formed a de facto electoral superstate, held up in 2008 and 2012, and almost so in 2016 and 2020.
In the probable rematch of Donald Trump and Joe Biden this November, Minnewisowa now seems likely to vote its 26 electoral votes as a key bloc in the presidential election and serve as a bellwether for the overall outcome.
Because it does not have a super-large urban center, Iowa has remained consistently conservative and increasingly Republican, casting its six electoral votes for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Polls indicate the former president will carry it again, probably by double digits.
Mr. Trump carried Wisconsin by a small margin in 2016, and Mr. Biden carried it by a small margin in 2020. In 2024, Trump has consistently led Biden by a few points in polls, and is expected to win the state by a small margin. Unlike Iowa, Wisconsin has a very large urban metro area that has become increasingly liberal-progressive and offsets the rural and outstate Republican vote. This state also has a very competitive U.S. Senate race this cycle in which incumbent Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin has a small lead within the margin of error over her GOP challenger Eric Hovde.
The surprise in this region in 2024 may be Minnesota, which has voted Democrat in every presidential election since 1972. Mr. Trump almost won this state in 2016, but in the margin in 2020 was not especially close. However, in recent polls, the former president has a narrow lead over Biden. If Trump does win Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes this year, Minnewisowa will cast a combined 26 electoral votes for him, and would likely be a bellwether for a landslide Trump Electoral College victory.
Like Wisconsin, Minnesota has a very large urban center in the twin cities of St. Paul and Minneapolis — which in recent years has voted increasingly to the progressive left. This has more than compensated for a major shift of working-class voters in northeast Minnesota from liberal left to the conservative right.
The key to Donald Trump’s resurgent voter strength in Minnesota is much the same as it is throughout the several battleground states elsewhere in the U.S. – conservative voter enthusiasm to end the current “progressive” policies of the Biden administration, including climate control regulations, wokeism, open borders, higher taxes, and weakening national defense.
The energy motivating Democrats, on the other hand, seems primarily to come from antipathy to Trump and the abortion issue. But, led by Trump, most Republican candidates are working to craft more effective messaging strategies on the latter, since the U.S. Supreme Court has reversed Roe v. Wade and sent the issue back to the individual states.
While the New York criminal trial pleased die-hard anti-Trumpers, the trial and its verdicts may have, in fact, helped Trump politically, and most recently provoked so many contributions to the former president’s campaign that it quickly caught up and exceeded the Biden campaign’s initial huge campaign finance lead.
At a recent Minnesota Lincoln-Reagan dinner, a Trump appearance wiped out in a single night the party’s chronic financial deficit, and electrified a crowd of 1,400 state grass roots Republicans who had suffered years of statewide defeat.
November’s Election Day is still four months away. The first Trump-Biden debate has yet to occur, and at least two of Minnewisowa’s component states are too close to call, but if present trends continue, the midwestern superstate will be a bellwether once more to a major change in America’s political direction.
Barry Casselman is a writer for AMAC Newsline.
Having lived in Wisconsin for well over two complete decades now, I can firmly state that anyone that believes Brandon won in Wisconsin in 2020 is, like the fake current occupier of the White House, a delusional idiot. The reality, when one takes the PROVEN fraud out of the equation is that Trump in a world of reality won the state by double digits.
Yep, it was and will be that bad here.
Election really mean may the best man for the job win We all know it no longer is about that and what’s best for the country but the power Trump is about the job and that scares dems to death Were he one of them there would not be this frenzy
I do not like either of them and find myself so disappointed in this rerun election that I have strongly considered not participating in the presidential section of the ballet here in Wisconsin. I voted for Biden last time, but I would be more apt to support Trump this time anyway. The four years under Biden have not been good regardless of how the media tries to spin his “Accomplishments”. The worst thing about Biden, however, is that when he cannot finish the term, which all signs indicate it is highly unlikely that he can, we get stuck with Kamala Harris who usually seems drunk or stoned when she baby talks down to people.
I worry about mail-in ballots W/O signature verification
I am not at all familiar with Mr. Casselman’s work. but he really needs to give up on the superstate notion. His “premise that the demographic similarities of these three adjacent midwestern states meant they would vote alike in a presidential election” is interesting, I guess, but half the time in recent elections predictions based on it have been wrong. As noted, Iowa has no big urban center. MN and WI have one each, so you’re already in the hole relative to suggesting they are triplets. Now overlay even more demographic dissonance: The urban center in MN is heavily Muslim. The one in WI is heavily Black. Might be time to reconsider the whole premise.
Perhaps the author missed the recent poll showing Trump with an 18 point lead in Iowa? Or the commentary by Meghan McCain stating no way Biden can win Wisconsin if Trump wins Iowa by 18?
How large is the Arab population of Minnesota?
It is becoming increasingly evident that the country will vote its pocketbook this November. That, plus there is an inkling that common sense may just be returning to what and how folks are thinking. Pray God it doe. Pray God that He directs how this election turns out and the right wins with a large majority. Otherwise, there will be a revolution.
Trump will never win MN. MN is more like WI, less like IA which has been conservative forever.
MN has a trifecta Dem governance. The last time a Republican won statewide was two decades ago. The last time a Republican won a statewide election with a majority of voters was the moderate Gov Carlson in the 90s
Biden will win MN and WI. Trump will win IA.
Trump is the only intelligent choice for citizens who want to be treated with respect, who love Faith,Family and God.Our country, communities, and well-being depend on Trump being our President again.
I called this quarter of a dollar coin a “flipcoin” back in 2004. Every election since 2004 I’ve used it to predict the outcome. It was correct in 2008 and 2012, and only narrowly missed in 2016 and 2020. I shall flip it again in 2024. Stay tuned! MN is blue, IA is red, WI is a tossup! But I like your persistence!
The conventional wisdom is Biden will take Wisconsin and Minn. Trump might surprise us by taking Wisconsin by getting a larger than usual share of votes from black men. Doubtful but it might happen
If those three states all vote for the same candidate, Mr Trump is finished. Of course, Mr Trump is finished however those states vote. What counts is GA, PA, MI, WI, and AZ, and all or most of those will be counted for Biden