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House Majority Hangs in Balance of 2024 Special Elections

Posted on Tuesday, January 30, 2024
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by Aaron Flanigan
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AMAC Exclusive – By Aaron Flanigan

democrats vs republicans for special election

A new report from the Daily Caller says that Democrats are spending almost three times more money than Republicans in the special election for the seat that GOP Rep. George Santos left vacant. The special election is on February 13, only a few weeks away. This news is another worrying sign that Republicans are not paying enough attention to special elections that could give Democrats a House majority before the November general election even happens.

The GOP has long neglected to invest the effort, money, and resources needed to win in important special elections—often all but giving up and letting the Democrat Party machine overpower conservatives with more spending, more organizing, and ultimately more votes.

This year, rectifying that problem has become even more urgent as the Republican House majority is on the line in special elections—and there is little room for error. House Republicans already held the 5th-smallest majority in U.S. history when they took the gavel in January 2023 at just nine seats. But now, as The New York Times reported on January 16, health issues and the resignations of several GOP members have left Speaker Mike Johnson in serious danger of not being able to cobble together an absolute majority, and created the possibility that Democrats could even reclaim control of the House before next January.

Perhaps the most imperative special election for Republicans this year falls on February 13, when voters from New York’s 3rd congressional district will vote to fill the seat of former Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress last December by a vote of the House of Representatives.

In November 2022, Santos won the seat by a margin of 7.6 points, with 53.8 percent of the vote. However, the district also voted for Biden over Trump in 2020—making the February race a major bellwether that could make or break Republicans’ slim majority.

“New York is the absolute epicenter of the fight for the House majority,” a Democrat strategist said of the looming February showdown. “It will very likely be determined in New York.”

In the special election, Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip, an Israeli-American Nassau County legislator, will square off against former Democrat Congressman Tom Suozzi, who served in Congress from 2017 to 2023 before losing his seat to Santos.

While in Congress, Suozzi established himself as a far-left radical who voted in support of legislation like the so-called “For the People Act,” which would have resulted in a complete federal takeover of the election process, the extreme anti-religious liberty “Equality Act,” and all of Joe Biden’s massive spending packages. The prospect of his return to the U.S. Capitol—especially at a time when the House majority is up for grabs—should be of grave concern to every New York conservative. The GOP has no excuse to stand by and allow the seat to fall into Democrat hands.

Another crucial special election, this one slated for May 21, will determine who will fill the seat previously occupied by former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, which he held from 2007 up until his retirement at the end of 2023 in California’s 20th congressional district. Though McCarthy’s district is considered to be safely red, GOP leadership should by no means take it for granted. Following the district’s primary race in March, conservative leaders should do everything in their power to ensure McCarthy’s seat is not forfeited to a California leftist through neglect or underinvestment.

The other two special elections scheduled for this year will likely be far less competitive. On June 11, voters in Ohio’s 6th congressional district—a conservative safe haven—will vote to replace the seat of retiring Republican Rep. Bill Johnson. Later in the year, New York’s solidly blue 26th congressional district will also select the successor to Democrat Rep. Brian Higgins, who is set to retire this winter.

Nonetheless, the GOP should treat every special election this year with the seriousness it unquestionably deserves. For the last several years, Democrats have seismically outperformed Republicans in vital special elections—including in red and purple districts and states that have historically swung for Trump and other Republicans.

According to an article from ABC News in August 2023, “analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean—or the relative liberal or conservative history—of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties, too.” Last year in particular, conservatives were hardest hit in states like Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Ohio in special elections.

If the Republican Party establishment hopes to regain the confidence of its voters, it must make every effort to win these special elections. Key conservative legislation, as well as the Biden impeachment inquiry and other Republican priorities, hang in the balance.

Although it would be entirely in character for GOP leadership to indifferently surrender its majority just months away from a vital presidential election, this time, passivity is not an option—and party leaders should understand that voters will be paying attention.

Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.

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walt
walt
3 months ago

WE NEED A NEW RNC CHAIRPERSON NOW!

Donna
Donna
3 months ago

Pray that our Father in heaven will raise up godly candidates to fill the seats in congress.

Thinking
Thinking
3 months ago

Until the democrats see what their party, president and candidate are standing for, the dems will always win. Publicize this election in New York. Have neighborhood door knockers to inform the people of the GOP candidate. It has to be a groundswell locally. If we want to save America from the lying inept democrats in the White House and in the House and Senate. We the people have to change it. Waiting for the RNC to act is a losing cause.

George Reeger
George Reeger
3 months ago

It’s a darn shame that money is what is controlling all of our elections. We aren’t voting for who is most honest, who is going to be a public servant instead of lining their own pockets or even what they plan on doing if elected. All the money is spent on tearing apart the opponents. The old adage is money talks and it is speaking volumes in our elections.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
3 months ago

Watch the Uniparty effect outcome
Dump RNC Estd & RNC Chair
MAGA Blood Now
Or LOSE

A Voter
A Voter
3 months ago

This is happening because the majority of so called Republicans are RINOs and want the same thing the communists who call themselves democrats want. We need to elect conservatives not republicans.

stout
stout
3 months ago

Republicans have squandered their majority in the House, and allowed resignations and even got rid of Santos. I have lost all faith in the republican party.

Melinda
Melinda
3 months ago

It’s really too bad that money spent makes a difference, but that’s a reality the GOP shouldn’t ignore.

Papa John
Papa John
3 months ago

The ballots for the Democratic candidate are already filled out waiting to be dumped.

charlie
charlie
3 months ago

Where is the America First supporters? Haly needs to to get off her high horse,
Congress’ silence is definitely a sign they are backing the democrats.

MOSS
MOSS
3 months ago

My hope is this article was generated by LEFTIST; if not, the GOP is facing serious problems.
My belief is this article is a WAKEUP call. Please help.

James K. Keenum
James K. Keenum
3 months ago

Speaker Johnson is a complete total disaster. Rhona McDonald needs to be immediately replaced as head of the Republican Party. Both of these persons are wolves in sheep skins. They are intentionally destroying the slim lead in the 118th Congress. People across this Nation that have any concern for America need to get on their knees and beg God to invoke the latter half of Isaiah 28 upon our Nation. This is our only hope.

Steven
Steven
3 months ago

The RNC is great at complaining but fails when it comes to being proactive at addressing important political elections. We need a real leader as RNC Chairperson who is politically savvy enough to compete with the Democrats. The Republican Party can ill afford to lose any election especially one with an incumbent Republican Representative.

ROBIN
ROBIN
3 months ago

It’s just sad that money is what is controlling all of our elections.

David Sutherland
David Sutherland
3 months ago

Democrats use laundered money from countless schemes in their efforts to coerce elections . Fortunately we are finally on to it! The dominion machines have been quietly changing red votes to blue using algorithms based on projections… we overwhelmed it in 2016, and they didn’t have a backup plan. Now we are on to it, and so they invade the country with so called immigrants that promise to vote democrat!! Here we are !

Jess
Jess
3 months ago

LIVE FREE OR DIE.
They leave no quarter other than to stand and fight. It’s all hands on deck. You’re as strong as your weakest link. No one should be taking the 2024 November elections for granted. Getting out the vote is the paramount. Failure is not an option!

SRW1
SRW1
3 months ago

If the mean level of intelligence of this thread is any indicator, there’s not much chance of us keeping our republic. Pray that America turns toward our Creator soon. SRW

Morbious
Morbious
3 months ago

The Rs will breathe a sigh of relief if they lose the majority. They can then go back to getting rich in office and pleading for campaign contributions. Then they think they cant be blamed for the country going communist.

Larry
Larry
3 months ago

Republican party in imploding.

Sean Rickman
Sean Rickman
3 months ago

We conservatives really have to work very hard to get the Republican/Conservative vote out and”discomboberate”the liberal,leftist democ rats and return the country to the PATRIOTIC AMERICANS.We need to return our country to the country it was years ago where most people got along pretty well.It really was a better country until barry nobamba stirred the pot and alienated so many Patriots.Its obvious that barry and the hoard of democ rats don’t like AMERICA and the way it worked for a very long time.We are a little beyond the crossroads where we can bring the real AMERICA back,maybe it’s already too late.I hope not.I am eighty five years old and realize that it’s too late for my wife and me but i really fear for my children,my grandkids,my great grandkids and beyond.

MadMax24
MadMax24
3 months ago

no coincidence that according to the U.S. Census Bureau, the two wealthiest counties in America, and six of the top ten, surround the Washington, D.C. area.  We are increasingly a nation run top-down by arrogant bureaucrats rewarded by stratospherically high-paying jobs immune from layoff or termination for poor performance.  They govern our lives from on high, immune from democratic checks and balances.  

Laura Bentz
Laura Bentz
3 months ago

How can any decent person vote Democrat? How stupid have we gotten?

George C Dindmorr
George C Dindmorr
3 months ago

All the money being spent, money of crooked billionaires, and communists, aka Soros/gates/buffet, all on the same boat “GREED” @ POWER

Thomas
Thomas
3 months ago

Over the years I have seen so much crap and lies from the Leftists and the Republicans not stepping up to the plate to take back common sense governing.The Rhinos in the Republican party make it that much worse. I voted for Trump because he was a great President and I would love to see him in there again.

jimm
jimm
3 months ago

The House may be in play in 2024, but the REAL gem is the Senate, which has better than 50:50 odds of flipping.

Robert
Robert
3 months ago

It serves them right whenever they they take charge, they do NOTHING productive. The DemonRats don’t waste their opportunity.

Edd
Edd
3 months ago

You need to give the NY GOP credit. The last census took away one electoral vote and the Ds’ gerrymandering the redistricting got them litigated. The GOP ultimately won that litigation, but GOP Congressional primaries had to held separately. To his credit, George Santos was the only candidate for NY3 because no one else bothered to get enough signatures. Santos defeated Zimmerman, one of Hillary’s minion lawyers, because Suozzi vacated NY3 to run for governor, only to lose the D primary to Hochul. Now Suozzi wants his seat back. George Santos had a Congressional voting record that any MAGA and Trump supporter would approve of, unlike the incumbent RINO in NY2. Maybe that’s why they got rid of Santos. In 2022 Long Island flipped 2 red and 2 blue congressional seats to 4 red. Not just Biden in 22, we are still trying to understand how Hochul D beat ex-congressman Zelden R 60-40 in those same districts (dough – minion perhaps?)
With respect to campaigning strategy, southern New Yorkers, with their 12+ hour extended commute and work day, have no time to watch ads on the boob tube or cable. But we do look at our mailbox everyday (have a stack of Mazi Pilip flyers) and stream our internet blogs like Dan Bongino and X22Report. So let the woke spend themselves broke, while Conservatives campaign smarter, not harder.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
3 months ago

There’s a state run early voting election in Nevada where Trump is not on the ballot (but Biden is) and a February 6th caucus where Trump is. State run: Haley is, Caucus: Haley not. Where’s the state GOP in all this? I had to look up on the internet because local news sure as hell wasn’t talking.

gus
gus
3 months ago

Pleeze let’s get the RINOs out, especially dear ole Mitch who at this point is probably senile and doesn’t know what he is saying or doing.

Donald King
Donald King
3 months ago

I’m not so sure the house is all that important any more. Every time they come up with a worthwhile bill for our country, the Rinos in the senate just get in lockstep with the progressives and kill it anyway.

Juanita
Juanita
3 months ago

Republicans are lazy to act in the best interest of their country

They are fast to eat up their own.
In the name of being self righteous.

What they are and act as though they are and came from the democrat party.

They are undercover democrats

Look at the Supreme Court justice
Eme Coney Barrette

How can such smart woman vote to destroy her own coutntry.

Because Eme Coney Barrette is Democra and she is not 3 things

1.- Smart
she must have been under the influence of drugs or under the influence of a Demond to vote the way she vote to keep the border open.

2.- As though she does not love ???? her country.
Eme Coney Barrette voted as though she want to destroy her country.

3.- Conservative
as all pretend to be to cover their destructive aptitud of their own race and country.

when democrats act they act in all their disdain.

It is easy to destroy.
It is hard to built.

Since they always live from the people’s money

Democrats never built
That is why they do not have the care and love for people or things

John Shipway
John Shipway
3 months ago

My bet is that the “Gods Chosen Person” Republican named Pilip will beat the radical lefty Suozzi as Mr Pilip will be funded by a crap ton of money from AIPAC……the same lobbying group that owns the vast majority of our federal government.
So, chill I guess

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