China Sees Opportunity in Ukraine War

AMAC Exclusive – By Ben Solis

As Russia is increasingly consumed by the war in Ukraine, Beijing has suddenly found itself in a strategically advantageous position in Central Asia. After decades of treading carefully so as not to cross Moscow, China is now taking full advantage of Russia’s preoccupation with military operations to seize rich natural resource deposits, further displacing Russia as the region’s preeminent power.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia sought to exercise influence over the former Soviet republics, thus creating a “buffer zone” between Russia and the West. But as China continued its rise to economic superpower status in the 1990s and early 2000s, it too began to look to Central Asia as it sought new markets for its goods and new sources of natural resources.

What might have been a natural source of tension instead turned to cooperation as the relationship between Washington and Beijing soured in recent years, driving Beijing and Moscow closer together. Although China and Russia do not have a formal alliance, they have conducted multiple military drills together and cooperated on major economic projects. China was one of the few countries that refused to call Putin’s attack on Ukraine an “invasion” last year.

China had good reason to reserve criticism of Russia’s unconscionable attack. By remaining one of the only countries that would still do business with Russia, Beijing could further extend its reach into Russia’s historical zone of influence while still improving relations with Moscow – the proverbial win-win.

Nowhere has this alarming development been more evident than in Afghanistan, which has been in turmoil since the disastrous U.S. exit in 2021. Chinese officials had boldly and frequently met with Taliban leaders since the U.S. evacuation, viewing the power vacuum as a tremendous opportunity in the resource-rich country. Just days after the last U.S. military plane left Kabul, the Chinese Foreign Ministry desired to deepen “friendly and cooperative” relations with the Taliban.

Russia had traditionally exerted some degree of influence in Afghanistan following its own ill-fated incursion there from 1979 to 1989. Various reports throughout the U.S. military involvement in the country suggested that Russia provided the Taliban with weapons and intel, hoping to frustrate American interests.

But Russia has allowed and even welcomed Chinese companies to extend their influence in Afghanistan, which has untapped oil resources worth an estimated $1 trillion. Last March, the Chinese Foreign Minister paid a surprise visit to Kabul accompanied by a Russian envoy who mostly shadowed the Chinese delegation – making clear that China has taken a leading role in the country.

One significant advantage China has is that it ignores security concerns and has no qualms about working with terrorists. There were dozens of terrorist attacks on Chinese citizens and projects last year. Some of these were reportedly in retribution for China’s persecution of Uyghur Muslims inside China.

But nothing could dissuade Beijing, which last month orchestrated a 25-year contract for the Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company that would bring $150 million per year in Chinese investments for oil extraction in the Amu River basin. The Taliban’s first international deal with a Chinese petroleum company, the deal covers 4,500 square kilometers in the northern part of the country.

Neither the Taliban nor China published the entire contract, but the available details reveal the stunning level of capitulation to Beijing: the Taliban will only control a 20 percent share in the project, while Beijing will own the other 80 percent. Wang Yu, China’s ambassador to Afghanistan, unsurprisingly called the agreement “lucrative” and said, “the project has created a model for China-Afghanistan cooperation.”

According to Ahmed Shah Katwazai, Afghanistan’s former diplomat to the U.S., China also has a license to excavate rare earth minerals, including lanthanum, cerium, and neodymium, indispensable for its satellite, space, and cell phone industry.

China has also embarked on similar one-sided deals with other nations in Central Asia as Russia has been forced to devote all its resources to the Ukraine war.

Turkmenistan, for example, is now bound to China with multiple long-term development projects as part of Beijing’s “Belt-and-Road” initiative. Chinese-funded projects are now pumping billions of cubic meters of liquid natural gas to China, while Turkmenistan itself sees virtually none of the profits. Since 2009, a contract between the government of Turkmenistan and Chinese companies has delivered 300 billion cubic meters of natural gas, accounting for a full 10 percent of the Chinese natural gas market. Gas from Turkmenistan powers industry and homes in 27 Chinese provinces, but the people of Turkmenistan see virtually no benefit.

Like many countries coerced into Belt-and-Road contracts, however, Turkmenistan is trapped in a hopeless debt pit repaying Chinese loans. Because the Turkmen economy relies on Chinese natural gas imports, the country is essentially at the whim of the Chinese Communist Party, creating a virtual puppet state.

China is now looking to establish projects like this throughout the region. Beijing has, for instance, announced that the China National Petroleum Corporation would fund the construction of a new pipeline through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan to China. All of these countries undoubtedly also will be stuck paying back the loans for these projects for decades, keeping their economies dependent on China.

Another project outlined by an official Chinese report details plans for Turkmenistan to “resolutely” join Kazakhstan to build an alternative export route for China to Europe, bypassing Russia. The Taliban have reportedly also entered into this endeavor. Moscow, still reliant on China’s ambivalence to their invasion of Ukraine, is powerless to stop it.

In light of these lopsided contracts, one political scientist has compared China’s trade relationships to a worker who does his job for a bowl of stew or rice. As Luca Anceschi, a professor of Eurasian Studies at the University of Glasgow, commented, while the cost for Westerners is exceptionally high, it is satisfactory for these economically depressed countries.

In trading Russia for China, Central Asia substitutes one tyrant for another. Western leaders should be on high alert, with Russia already growing more aggressive and China extending its reach further around the globe.

Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.