Republicans’ Job on Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” Is Only Just Beginning

Following a vigorous legislative push from congressional Republicans, President Donald Trump signed his “One Big, Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) into law over the Fourth of July weekend. But while the legislative battle may be over, the public relations battle is only just beginning – and Republicans have their work cut out for them.

The OBBB delivers on many of Trump’s key campaign promises, including eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay, extending the provisions of his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, making a historic investment in border security, and kicking illegal aliens off Medicaid. But as much as most Americans may benefit from the law, it will be a pyrrhic victory if the shameless Democrat scaremongering now underway misleads the public and undermines Republicans’ chances of holding the House and Senate next November.

Liberal groups clearly recognize the importance of this moment, while conservative groups comparatively appear to be resting on their laurels. According to Punchbowl News, citing data from AdImpact out this week, Democratic groups spent nearly $1 million on ads bashing the OBBB from July 4 to July 11 – nearly double the $600,000 Republican groups spent defending it.

“The numbers reveal the issue facing Republicans as they try to convince the American public that the One Big Beautiful Bill is a good thing for them,” Punchbowl reports. “Democrats have gotten the word out early and often across the airwaves that the package will cost jobs while ripping health care and nutritional benefits away from millions of Americans.”

That analysis is, of course, just as biased as the Democrat ads Punchbowl is referencing. But that doesn’t negate the reality that public polling shows the bill is deeply underwater with the public. Separate polls from Quinnipiac, Fox, and the Kaiser Family Foundation all found that a majority of Americans opposed the bill. Additional polls from The Washington Post/Ipsos and Pew found a plurality in opposition.

Those polls were all taken before the final bill passed. But they nonetheless paint an alarming picture of the challenge facing the GOP in selling this legislation as the enormous win that it is.

There is reason for optimism, however, hidden beneath these dire topline numbers. In the Post/Ipsos poll, for instance, 73 percent of respondents favored extending the tax cuts for those with incomes under $100,000 or $200,000 for couples. Sixty-five percent supported eliminating the tax on tips. Seventy-two percent supported increasing the child tax credit, while a plurality also supported instituting work requirements for able-bodied adults on Medicaid.

Another survey from GOP pollster Fabrizio, Lee & Associates of voters in key battleground districts found that 61 percent of respondents supported making the 2017 tax cuts permanent when they found out that they would “save the average American up to $2,800 per year.” Sixty-eight percent also supported measures to “immediately end [Medicaid] coverage of people who are ineligible.”

This disconnect suggests that the major provisions in the OBBB are broadly popular; it’s just the liberal framing of the legislation that is driving down its approval. That’s good news for Republicans, because they can’t change the legislation now, but they can change the American people’s understanding of what it does. They can educate voters and empower them with the truth about how the bill will improve their lives.

The midterms may still seem far off, but the task of winning the public relations battle over the OBBB is as urgent as any other facing the GOP. (Efforts like AMAC’s own reporting on the OBBB are a good place to start.) Republican candidates are already running against history next year. Since World War II, the president’s party has picked up seats in the House just twice and has lost on average about 28 seats. Given the GOP’s current 220-212 majority (there are three vacancies), Republicans will need to strongly outperform the trend to have any hope of retaining control of the chamber.

More recent history on how parties performed following the passage of major legislation is equally stark. Barack Obama’s famous 2010 midterm “shellacking,” where House Democrats lost 63 seats, was precipitated by the passage of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). In 2022, Democrats lost control of the House again following passage of Biden’s thoroughly misnamed Inflation Reduction Act.

The one advantage Republicans have here is that their legislation is likely to actually produce positive results. Obamacare sent premiums skyrocketing and kicked people off insurance that they liked, despite Obama’s explicit promise that it would not do so. The Inflation Reduction Act did the opposite of what its title suggested and sent inflation soaring even higher.

The record of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was much better, as the country saw historic gains in real wages and an explosion of economic productivity. Still, Republicans lost 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms (they did, however, pick up two Senate seats).

Republicans should learn from this history and understand that the most important battle over the OBBB began when President Trump signed it. The only way the law will ever meet its full potential is if the American people understand the truth about how transformative it is and recognize the lies they are being fed by its opponents.

Shane Harris is the Editor in Chief of AMAC Newsline. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.