For 46 years, Iran has been ruled by a repressive and malignant theocratic regime. In all that time, its radical jihadist government has intended as its primary goal the destruction of the Jewish state of Israel, the United States, and the Christian-based nations of Western Europe. But now it appears as if the Islamic Republic may be in its final hours.
The immediate impetus of this circumstance has rightfully and appropriately come from a spontaneous uprising from the long-suffering Iranian people themselves. The policies of the totalitarian state under its cruel supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, have left the nation of more than 90 million people fiscally bankrupt and lacking water, food, utilities, and other necessities.
The regime has brutally cracked down on protesters. Although the numbers cannot yet be verified, estimates of civilians killed by the regime vary from 6,000 to more than 30,000. Estimates of those wounded and imprisoned are in the tens of thousands.
U.S., Israeli, and now British land, sea, and air military resources are now in the Middle East close to Iran as a last-chance opportunity for the Islamic Republic regime to surrender its power peaceably and for its leaders to leave the country expires.
U.S. President Donald Trump has warned Iran that “time is running out” to negotiate a deal on its nuclear program as U.S. and allied forces gather in the Persian Gulf.
Despite Khamenei’s threats to retaliate if the allied forces take military action against the regime, it appears clear that Iran’s current abilities are severely overmatched. The regime and both its regular military and the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are already in disarray from weeks of public protests. Its air defenses were destroyed in the Twelve-Day War with Israel last June, and its air force is no match for the combined U.S.-Israeli-British air power resources.
The regime is also still reeling from a targeted U.S. strike last year, which significantly set back the country’s nuclear capabilities. Fears had been growing that Iran could enrich enough uranium to produce a nuclear weapon, a prospect that was unacceptable to the Western alliance. Last June, American bombers attacked three nuclear facilities as part of Operation Midnight Hammer, the first U.S. attack on Iranian territory since a 1988 naval offensive.
The only significant weapons available to the regime are an unknown, but limited, number of ballistic missiles which could be used against Israel and U.S. military targets in the Middle East, as well as Iranian-made suicide drones. However, the U.S. and its allies have a state-of-the-art anti-missile and anti-drone defense capability. Jordan and Saudi Arabia, as they did during the Twelve-Day War, would be able to destroy a great many missiles and drones before they reached their targets. Furthermore, a preemptive missile attack from Iran would provoke a massive and immediate response.
Actual military action against Iran could happen at any time, but it is more likely days away for the U.S. and its allies to put their war plan, including defense of their bases and assets, securely in place. Time is on the U.S. side because, however long it must wait to begin, its adversary does not have the resources to significantly improve its situation through a short delay.
Reportedly, Chinese and Russian planes are flying in with some supplies and equipment, but this is mostly symbolic, as the regime is withering every day from lack of basic food and water – and from international sanctions against the regime.
In the tensions and threats leading up to the present crisis, the regime’s leaders could be tempted to make a fatal tactical error such as launching preemptive attacks against U.S. air bases, ships, or Israeli cities — which would prompt an annihilating response from the U.S. and Israel.
Yogi Berra probably never went to Iran, but his iconic caveat still applies: “It isn’t over until it’s over.” Yet after the unspeakable murder and torture of tens of thousands of Iranian civilians and the Islamic Republic’s countless crimes over the past 46 years, there is no outcome possible other than total defeat.
Herald Boas is a writer for AMAC Newsline.
