AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris
One week out from Election Day, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and incumbent Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul are embattled in unexpectedly competitive races in New York, according to a new poll from the Trafalgar Group. The results of the poll suggest that Republicans’ “Red Wave” could be even larger than previously hoped, perhaps delivering victories in even the most unlikely of places.
The survey of 1,198 likely voters conducted from October 27-31 shows Republican Lee Zeldin in a statistical tie with Hochul, leading 48.4 percent to 47.6 percent with 4 percent undecided. Zeldin, who would be the first Republican elected governor in New York since 2002, trailed Hochul by nearly 20 points in the RealClearPolitics average at the end of August, but now appears to have closed the gap.
While Republicans are silently hopeful about Zeldin’s chances, perhaps the more shocking result from the poll is that just 50.6 percent of respondents said they intended to vote for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Republican challenger Joe Pinion is still down around 10 points (40 percent), but a sizable group of voters saying they intend to vote for a third-party candidate (5.1 percent) or are undecided (4.3 percent) means that Schumer’s race could be far closer than anyone in the media or Democratic establishment expected heading into the final weeks of the fall campaign. Though Schumer is still likely to keep his seat, that Democrat incumbents are struggling in the Empire State should set off alarm bells for the entire party.
“It’s not a normal thing to see the sitting majority leader just barely over 50 percent in a reliably blue state,” Robert Cahaly, CEO of the Trafalgar Group, told AMAC Newsline. “Imagine what would be said about Mitch McConnell if he was majority leader and barely winning Kentucky. If the red wave is as big as some have suggested it might be, Schumer might even possibly have to fight for a plurality win.”
Other conservative pundits are also beginning to pick up on the same Democrat struggles measured in the Trafalgar poll. On Monday, former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer told Fox News host Sean Hannity that he now sees a path for Republicans to pick up six Senate seats. “A week ago I would’ve told you I don’t see it happening,” he said. “Now I can tell you, I think there’s about a 25 percent chance that the wave is big enough Republicans are going to end up with 56 seats.” Fleischer also pointed to 2014, when Republicans expected modest gains but ended up netting nine Senate seats, as an example of how well things could go for the GOP next week.
Several local factors are undoubtedly at play in the New York races, primarily the tumultuous exit of former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Hochul has yet to erase the stench of her association with Cuomo as his lieutenant governor, and she has alienated New Yorkers on both sides of the political aisle through audacious power grabs in just over a year in office. Republicans, Independents, and even some Democrats turning out to vote for Zeldin will also be likely to vote against Schumer.
But there also appears to be broader national factors influencing the New York races that translate to contests throughout the country – namely, voter backlash to radical Democrat policies.
At least one conservative group, Frontiers of Freedom Action (FFA), has been insisting for months that even races in deep blue states like New York are in play due to Democrats’ descent into far-left extremism over the past two years. As AMAC Newsline reported in August, FFA began running a TV ad blitz in upstate New York against Schumer, labeling him President Joe Biden’s “chief enabler” in a striking two-minute spot that outlines numerous radical policies advanced by Schumer in the Senate. Along with Schumer, FFA targeted neighboring blue-state Senator Richard Blumenthal, who has himself been struggling in the polls, calling on Republicans to expand the Senate map.
Similar ads funded by FFA have also been running in key swing states, including New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada, garnering a significant amount of media attention for their depth and clarity of content. One conservative news outlet called the format the “greatest political ad of all time,” while an Arizona paper credited the ad with “reviving” Republican Blake Masters’ campaign against incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly.
FFA Chairman George Landrith told AMAC Newsline that the Trafalgar poll results confirm what his group has predicted from the start about Democrats’ vulnerability on their far-left legislative record. “The lesson here is that there is still time to help Joe Pinion, who is a great candidate. Republicans need to expand the map,” he said. “We’ve been saying since we first began running these ads in August against Schumer that the critical point was the corrupt bargain every Democratic senator made with the progressive left. They would vote left wing as long they didn’t have to face a primary challenge. And no one was a bigger example of this than Schumer, who feared a challenge from [Rep. Alexandria] Ocasio-Cortez in New York. So Schumer and all the Democratic incumbents made a corrupt bargain that for many of them became a suicide pact.”
If New York is indeed in play, Republicans may be poised to outperform even the most optimistic of expectations. With one week to go and many early votes already cast, the GOP would be wise to continue hammering home the need for checks on Democrats’ radical policies and abuses of power, a message which has weakened even the most powerful left-wing figures.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_.