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SHOCK POLL: Schumer, Hochul in Trouble in New York

Posted on Tuesday, November 1, 2022
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by Shane Harris
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76 Comments
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AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris

One week out from Election Day, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and incumbent Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul are embattled in unexpectedly competitive races in New York, according to a new poll from the Trafalgar Group. The results of the poll suggest that Republicans’ “Red Wave” could be even larger than previously hoped, perhaps delivering victories in even the most unlikely of places.

The survey of 1,198 likely voters conducted from October 27-31 shows Republican Lee Zeldin in a statistical tie with Hochul, leading 48.4 percent to 47.6 percent with 4 percent undecided. Zeldin, who would be the first Republican elected governor in New York since 2002, trailed Hochul by nearly 20 points in the RealClearPolitics average at the end of August, but now appears to have closed the gap.

While Republicans are silently hopeful about Zeldin’s chances, perhaps the more shocking result from the poll is that just 50.6 percent of respondents said they intended to vote for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Republican challenger Joe Pinion is still down around 10 points (40 percent), but a sizable group of voters saying they intend to vote for a third-party candidate (5.1 percent) or are undecided (4.3 percent) means that Schumer’s race could be far closer than anyone in the media or Democratic establishment expected heading into the final weeks of the fall campaign. Though Schumer is still likely to keep his seat, that Democrat incumbents are struggling in the Empire State should set off alarm bells for the entire party.

“It’s not a normal thing to see the sitting majority leader just barely over 50 percent in a reliably blue state,” Robert Cahaly, CEO of the Trafalgar Group, told AMAC Newsline. “Imagine what would be said about Mitch McConnell if he was majority leader and barely winning Kentucky. If the red wave is as big as some have suggested it might be, Schumer might even possibly have to fight for a plurality win.”

Other conservative pundits are also beginning to pick up on the same Democrat struggles measured in the Trafalgar poll. On Monday, former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer told Fox News host Sean Hannity that he now sees a path for Republicans to pick up six Senate seats. “A week ago I would’ve told you I don’t see it happening,” he said. “Now I can tell you, I think there’s about a 25 percent chance that the wave is big enough Republicans are going to end up with 56 seats.” Fleischer also pointed to 2014, when Republicans expected modest gains but ended up netting nine Senate seats, as an example of how well things could go for the GOP next week.

Several local factors are undoubtedly at play in the New York races, primarily the tumultuous exit of former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Hochul has yet to erase the stench of her association with Cuomo as his lieutenant governor, and she has alienated New Yorkers on both sides of the political aisle through audacious power grabs in just over a year in office. Republicans, Independents, and even some Democrats turning out to vote for Zeldin will also be likely to vote against Schumer.

But there also appears to be broader national factors influencing the New York races that translate to contests throughout the country – namely, voter backlash to radical Democrat policies.

At least one conservative group, Frontiers of Freedom Action (FFA), has been insisting for months that even races in deep blue states like New York are in play due to Democrats’ descent into far-left extremism over the past two years. As AMAC Newsline reported in August, FFA began running a TV ad blitz in upstate New York against Schumer, labeling him President Joe Biden’s “chief enabler” in a striking two-minute spot that outlines numerous radical policies advanced by Schumer in the Senate. Along with Schumer, FFA targeted neighboring blue-state Senator Richard Blumenthal, who has himself been struggling in the polls, calling on Republicans to expand the Senate map.

Similar ads funded by FFA have also been running in key swing states, including New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada, garnering a significant amount of media attention for their depth and clarity of content. One conservative news outlet called the format the “greatest political ad of all time,” while an Arizona paper credited the ad with “reviving” Republican Blake Masters’ campaign against incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly.

FFA Chairman George Landrith told AMAC Newsline that the Trafalgar poll results confirm what his group has predicted from the start about Democrats’ vulnerability on their far-left legislative record. “The lesson here is that there is still time to help Joe Pinion, who is a great candidate. Republicans need to expand the map,” he said. “We’ve been saying since we first began running these ads in August against Schumer that the critical point was the corrupt bargain every Democratic senator made with the progressive left. They would vote left wing as long they didn’t have to face a primary challenge. And no one was a bigger example of this than Schumer, who feared a challenge from [Rep. Alexandria] Ocasio-Cortez in New York. So Schumer and all the Democratic incumbents made a corrupt bargain that for many of them became a suicide pact.”

If New York is indeed in play, Republicans may be poised to outperform even the most optimistic of expectations. With one week to go and many early votes already cast, the GOP would be wise to continue hammering home the need for checks on Democrats’ radical policies and abuses of power, a message which has weakened even the most powerful left-wing figures.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_.

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David Millikan
David Millikan
1 year ago

CRYING schumer whining as usual.

Stacey
Stacey
1 year ago

Nice photos of the pair when they were 25 years younger. We should be using current photos.

John D. Beach
John D. Beach
1 year ago

Democrats have put their partisan interests ahead of the representation of the American citizenry and deserve to “be in trouble.” Plainly stated, the policies of the Biden administration are the most, idiotically, destructive of any administration in memory. So mindless they are that you have to ask whether the formulators and implementers of policy have any clue as to what they are doing or why?
Without a logical response, they will pay for their arrogance and ignorance.

legally present
legally present
1 year ago

My question to the LEGAL citizens of New York is this, WHY would you re-elect Schumer to the Senate??? WHAT has he done to make your life better??? Is your gas cheaper, your insurance premium? Your food??? I don’t get it, he’s a freakin idiot and you keep putting the dumb *** back in the Senate for 24 years, and you still want to put him back in there???

Cheryl Wisdom
Cheryl Wisdom
1 year ago

God, have mercy on America and turn New York RED! We ask this in the name of our Lord Jesus Christ. Amen

J. Farley
J. Farley
1 year ago

I would like everybody to not get overconfident about this Election, you must remember the only way this will happen is that you must vote, and even though you might think this election is in the bag it would be wise of you to vote and make it an impressive win, what I mean is run up the score, leave no doubt about who won.
When I ran for public office, I ran as if I was 10 points behind. People I have talked to feel that complacency will set in, and people will say we have it made and there is no need for me to vote and that might be the stupidest thing they could do in this election cycle other than voting for a Democrat.
VOTE LIKE YOUR FREEDOM DEPENDS ON IT, BECAUSE IT DOES!
Save America — Vote Republican

mytake
mytake
1 year ago

Wouldn’t that be the upset of the century and absolutely needed. Schumer is so corrupt it is pathetic. New York needs a candidate who is for the people for a change.
Schumer is not.

Sharon Ormsby
Sharon Ormsby
1 year ago

It ain’t over till the fat lady sings. It would be awesome if they were all kicked out, but we all know Dems cheat. Would truly be awesome if Schumer was kicked out.

Frank
Frank
1 year ago

I’ll believe it when it’s over and these people are officially out. I still believe 2020 was rigged and I believe the midterms will be also.

Mario Capparuccini
Mario Capparuccini
1 year ago

Vote all the Democrats out! Enough inflation, open borders, drug overdoses, Gestapo DOJ & FBI, pro-abortion, pro-gay, pro-drag queen, and pro chopping off penises and breasts from minors. VOTE THEM ALL OUT!!! We are sick and fed up with these evil people.

Marie Langley
Marie Langley
1 year ago

VOTE RED=REMOVE EVERY DEMOCRAT

zoe frost
zoe frost
1 year ago

There is no more “daddy’s” Dem party, it is the Commie Dem party of destruction and debauchery, led by corrupt, greedy, despicable traitors. The expletive DemoNcrats (and yes, complicit RINOs), are intent on destroying our freedoms and opportunities and The American Dream. All for their ‘sit down and shut up’ totalitarian tyranny hell for average Americans. Anyone voting D is voting for the end of our Constitutional Republic, that’s now an undisputable FACT!

patriot
patriot
1 year ago

Vote Republican. A vote for a third party is the same as throwing your vote away. Third party candidates never get enough votes to win, so it is just a wasted vote.
This election is vital to save our freedoms. America must get the democraps out and put freedom loving patriots in office or all those Americans who gave their lives from 1776 til today will be for naught!

Bill
Bill
1 year ago

Just maybe we won’t have to move to Florida then..

Phyl
Phyl
1 year ago

I’m praying both will be soundly defeated. Schumer has been in Congress way too long.

Charles John Radliff
Charles John Radliff
1 year ago

If Schumer is indeed defeated, it couldn’t happen to a nicer snake

MICHAEL TOMAINO
MICHAEL TOMAINO
1 year ago

I truly pray that those crooks are gone soon! They’ve done so much damage to my beautiful state of New York..

nick maggi
nick maggi
1 year ago

would love to say good riddance to both of them! long live the FREE STATE OF FLORIDA, don’t come here if you bring NYC politics and attitude left there 30 years ago

Luke
Luke
1 year ago

Here’s what’ll happen: whoever loses will accuse the winner of voter fraud and the CCP news media will pick it up and hammer it into voters’ minds for the next six years.

Ron
Ron
1 year ago

When we win the Senate, the key thing is not to elect a swamper, Majority Leader. We need someone like Rand Paul, not Mitch McConnell. Mitch McConnell is as bad as Schumer, he betrayed The People and the Country also.

johnh
johnh
1 year ago

Republicans Donald Trump Jr & AZ Kerri Lake did not help the party at all this week….by making jokes about the hammer attack on 82-year old Pelosi at his home. What happened to Republicans standing up to being tough on Crime & not condoning it & being soft on crimes… Please explain ????

Pamela DM
Pamela DM
1 year ago

Why hasn’t the Republican Party given an ounce of publicity to Pinion? Many voters are disgusted by Schumer but absolutely NOTHING has been mentioned, printed or broadcast about Pinion. Not a single photo, interview, quote or ad!!!! It’s a disgrace.

Adonis
Adonis
1 year ago

I vacantly tell, both are on tv in NYS every five minutes. Even unlimited money will not save them from voters anger. Both of these radical tyrants must be fired.

MariaRose
MariaRose
1 year ago

If anything, NYS has to lose its total Blue only, which only caters to those people who contribute nothing to help regular residents and create programs that sound so great on paper but do nothing in reality. For example–every person is entitled to housing–but don’t house them in NIMBY areas–tent cities are good enough unless utilizing empty hotel space looks better, but avoid spending any money on real quality supervisor staffing, just hire those at minimum wage- whatever looks good on paper and creates non-existing administration high pay positions

Carla
Carla
1 year ago

One can only pray at this point and hope that people will see that the democratic party is on a wrong path and it is time for a change.

Dennis M Struk
Dennis M Struk
1 year ago

SEND HOKUM & SCHEMER TO RUSSIA!!!!!

Jocie
Jocie
1 year ago

This is true every Republican United States need to vote vote vote can’t let these guys win anymore look at all what they have done hey that’s cool

Noel Edwards
Noel Edwards
1 year ago

I just think it’s wrong that an entire state can be controlled by 5 or 6 counties, leaving the rest of the state with no voice.

Sid
Sid
1 year ago

Losing these two Nazis would be good for America.

Honey
Honey
1 year ago

I don’t want to celebrate that the race is closer and that could be impressive. A one percent majority for Schumer is still a win for him. I want him to lose.

jocko
jocko
1 year ago

AS PEOPLE ARE READING THIS, THE SUITCASES OF FAKE BALLOTS ARE BEING DELIVERED TO THE POLLING PLACES BY THE CANCEROUS, ANTI-AMERICAN, CHEATING, LYING, liberals, who, ARE THE ENEMY OF OUR NATION

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