A massive political problem confronts the Biden White House. It relates to energy. Here is the problem in a nutshell. It is serious, for all of us, and points to just one solution.
Russia has invaded Ukraine, creating global fear that – without meaningful sanctions on Russia – a new norm will be set, permitting violent conquest of neighbor states, perhaps followed by China.
To stop that new norm from seeding, short of engaging in a hot war, Western sanctions must be imposed. They must be serious, have teeth, hurt Russia enough that this invasion is viewed as a massive mistake, operationally crippled, concept of invasions delegitimized, and eventually onslaught reversed.
How do you do that? The only meaningful sanctions on Russia, an economy built around oil, must relate to oil. So, while Biden and Western leaders have not so far targeted the oil sector, they must.
To avoid the downstream effects of appeasement – which led to WWII – the West must unify and impose sanctions on Russia’s oil sector. This seems almost inevitable, if the message is to stick.
This must occur despite Europe’s reliance on Russian oil and gas, despite Biden’s climate change preoccupation, and despite his reckless decision to strip America of energy independence in 2021.
The problem is that, if European countries decide to go along and sanction Russia by boycotting oil and gas, this will require some other part of the globe to backfill their oil and gas needs, because some of those countries rely up to 70 percent on Russian energy, and together they rely on Russia for just under half their energy needs. See, e.g., https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/business/economy/russia-europe-sanctions-gas-oil.html; https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-sanctions-russia-not-likely-disrupt-energy-markets-state-dept-official-2022-02-22/.
How then do we help Europe go along, punishing Russian leadership and illegality in a meaningful way? We must find a source of oil and gas that could be brought to life fast, to export to European allies what they need now, and to tap into production that is currently untapped. See, e.g., https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-25/as-the-ukraine-crisis-mounts-can-the-u-s-claim-energy-independence.
What is that source? The United States of America, to be direct. We can do what Trump initiated and what prior presidents have advocated, ramp up our fossil fuel production, finish and open the Keystone pipeline, restart fracking, permit drilling, begin massive exports to our allies, to save them – and in that process save the integrity of oil sector sanctions on Russia.
Can the Biden Administration and US private sector do this? Yes. Will we do this? That remains to be seen. So far, no serious sanctions on Russia’s oil sector from Biden exist, even though they should. So far, fear of higher oil and gas prices, and climate change impacts, seem to be wagging the dog.
Truth is, self-reliance, energy independence, using the God-given oil and gas we have to help sustain allies, save lives, support human rights, restore law, punish Russia, and create US jobs seems just common sense.
Let us hope that restarting US energy production – solves Biden’s massive problem. Ramping it up to help allies and secure global peace – is the next step Biden and others take. It should be. But if one thing is clear at this point, common sense in the Biden white house is uncommon. Let us hope this is the exception that proves the rule.