AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman
There have been some recent op-eds suggesting that the national midterm elections, now only 7 months away, will not be a red tsunami in U.S. House elections as some have predicted. The arguments fall into two general categories. First, there are those pundits who calculate that the GOP has already picked up several competitive seats in 2020, and thus is limited in the number of pick-ups it can hope for in 2022. They contend that predictors of GOP gains of more than 25-30 seats are way too optimistic. The second group are mostly Republican strategists who do not necessarily believe in a lesser number of gains, but who want to lower public expectations so that the actual results cannot be portrayed as a disappointment.
Any prediction of results about 200 days before November is, of course, speculative, and there is no guarantee that a red wave is certain. But the current political environment, if it persists, surely will not bring good news for Democrats when the votes are tallied after election day.
Those who are skeptical about a GOP House landslide (net Republican gains of 35 seats or more) have a logical mathematical argument; i.e., it would take massive voter shifts in many districts currently represented by Democrats to defeat the incumbents.
Many observers also believe that President Biden’s current very low poll numbers will soon rise, and that he and his party will likewise soon abandon their radical and unpopular agenda — thus making Democrats more competitive in November. But this same expectation also existed 3 months ago, and clearly did not happen. While it is true that most undecided voters usually make up their minds about candidates only a few weeks before voting, a nationalized election (as 2022 is turning out to be, especially after continual bad economic news, i.e. inflation, high energy prices, unsettled stocks, supply chain woes) motivates turnout against a party in power much earlier — which we already see in various state caucuses and party conventions, including, for example, usually “blue” Minnesota, where Republicans are turning out heavily, and Democrats (DFLers) are not.
National GOP House strategists have now targeted more than 70 Democratic incumbents’ seats in 2022. Democrats have targeted a notably fewer number of Republican seats — and many of those might not turn out to be very competitive if there is little to motivate liberal voters to go the polls.
As the Virginia 2021 off-year elections demonstrated, a critical number of those who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 will go into the booth and vote Republican to express their strong unhappiness with the Democratic leadership in Washington — and in their own state. If anything, that dissatisfaction is more intense today, and it is national in its dimensions, even appearing in traditionally strong blue states on both coasts.
Already, two usually “safe” Democratic U.S. Senate seats, in Vermont and Connecticut, are becoming competitive with potentially formidable GOP challengers. Another new factor is the growing number of GOP women, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians running for Congress this cycle.
The intensity and range of current U.S. voter dissatisfaction are the political factors in 2022 that the skeptical number crunchers are underestimating. Yes, if the Democrats dramatically shift course, and the economic news improves, the outcome of the midterms might only see modest gains for Republicans. But the elections are now on the political horizon, and fast approaching — and there’s no sign from the Democratic leadership in the nation’s capital that policy changes are forthcoming.
A GOP pick-up, then, of 40-75 U.S. House seats is not out of the question. This is not yet a prediction, but it could soon be one.