Newsline

Newsline , Society

How Big a Wave?

Posted on Friday, April 8, 2022
|
by AMAC Newsline
|
378 Comments
|
Print

AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman

house of rep

There have been some recent op-eds suggesting that the national midterm elections, now only 7 months away, will not be a red tsunami in U.S. House elections as some have predicted. The arguments fall into two general categories. First, there are those pundits who calculate that the GOP has already picked up several competitive seats in 2020, and thus is limited in the number of pick-ups it can hope for in 2022. They contend that predictors of GOP gains of more than 25-30 seats are way too optimistic. The second group are mostly Republican strategists who do not necessarily believe in a lesser number of gains, but who want to lower public expectations so that the actual results cannot be portrayed as a disappointment.

Any prediction of results about 200 days before November is, of course, speculative, and there is no guarantee that a red wave is certain. But the current political environment, if it persists, surely will not bring good news for Democrats when the votes are tallied after election day.

Those who are skeptical about a GOP House landslide (net Republican gains of 35 seats or more) have a logical mathematical argument; i.e., it would take massive voter shifts in many districts currently represented by Democrats to defeat the incumbents.

Many observers also believe that President Biden’s current very low poll numbers will soon rise, and that he and his party will likewise soon abandon their radical and unpopular agenda — thus making Democrats more competitive in November. But this same expectation also existed 3 months ago, and clearly did not happen. While it is true that most undecided voters usually make up their minds about candidates only a few weeks before voting, a nationalized election (as 2022 is turning out to be, especially after continual bad economic news, i.e. inflation, high energy prices, unsettled stocks, supply chain woes) motivates turnout against a party in power much earlier — which we already see in various state caucuses and party conventions, including, for example, usually “blue” Minnesota, where Republicans are turning out heavily, and Democrats (DFLers) are not.

National GOP House strategists have now targeted more than 70 Democratic incumbents’ seats in 2022. Democrats have targeted a notably fewer number of Republican seats — and many of those might not turn out to be very competitive if there is little to motivate liberal voters to go the polls.

As the Virginia 2021 off-year elections demonstrated, a critical number of those who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 will go into the booth and vote Republican to express their strong unhappiness with the Democratic leadership in Washington — and in their own state. If anything, that dissatisfaction is more intense today, and it is national in its dimensions, even appearing in traditionally strong blue states on both coasts.

Already, two usually “safe” Democratic U.S. Senate seats, in Vermont and Connecticut, are becoming competitive with potentially formidable GOP challengers. Another new factor is the growing number of GOP women, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians running for Congress this cycle.

The intensity and range of current U.S. voter dissatisfaction are the political factors in 2022 that the skeptical number crunchers are underestimating. Yes, if the Democrats dramatically shift course, and the economic news improves, the outcome of the midterms might only see modest gains for Republicans. But the elections are now on the political horizon, and fast approaching — and there’s no sign from the Democratic leadership in the nation’s capital that policy changes are forthcoming.

A GOP pick-up, then, of 40-75 U.S. House seats is not out of the question. This is not yet a prediction, but it could soon be one.

Share this article:
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
378 Comments
Most Voted
Newest Oldest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Old Swabby
Old Swabby
2 years ago

It doesn’t matter how big a red wave/tsunami. Without a fair & honest election, it’s a pointless argument. Personally, I don’t think there will ever be another fair & honest election in this country again. For that matter, ANY country. Further, I think the NWO is already knocking at the door and the globalists are reaching for the doorknob to let them in.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

If we cant secure elections whats the point, rerun 2020??

PaulE
PaulE
2 years ago

Absent from the discussion are two factors:

1) The Democrats are intentionally flooding the country with millions of illegal aliens and relocating them to key battleground states around the country. Democrats are NOT stupid, at least not the ones running the show. They understand the importance of “stuffing the ballot box” by changing the voter demographic in key districts / states to alter the anticipated vote outcomes. Yes, we’re talking about voter fraud or cheating, which is a staple of SOP for Democrats. This article conveniently omits any mention of it, as if it is either non-existent or inconsequential. It’s not of course, as we’re living with the results today.

2) While it is likely the GOP will gain a simple majority in the House, and even possibly the Senate if the GOP puts a little effort into winning the midterms, what really matters is whether the GOP will be able to achieve a veto proof majority in both chambers of Congress. A simple majority in both chambers will simply mean stalemate in terms of stopping any new, destructive legislation being originated by Democrats in the House (unless RINOs in the House “walk across the aisle” and enable them to succeed). A simple majority will do NOTHING in terms of being able to reverse the damage of the last 15 months, as whatever GOP legislation gets passed and goes to the White House will simply be vetoed by Biden. You need a GOP veto proof majority in both chambers of Congress to eliminate that ability of Biden and actually be able to achieve something positive aside from legislative gridlock.

Gregory Russell
Gregory Russell
2 years ago

Personally, I pray that EVERY single demon-crat will be voted OUT, and our land can be healed and cleansed. That the Second Amendment will be recognized as it was intended, that our borders will be enforced and cockroaches ousted, and that we will once again take up the leadership position across the globe that is befitting of the most formidable military the world has ever seen. We need moral leadership, that will put God first, and everything else will fall into place!

STEPHEN GORDON
STEPHEN GORDON
2 years ago

AND WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THEY WON’T RIGG IT LIKE THEY DID 2020. THEY GOT AWAY WITH IT EVEN THOUGH THEY TO CHEAT HUGELY TO BEAT TRUMP. MOST DEMOCRATS AND SOME RINOS SHOULD BE ARRESTED, CHARGED, CONVITED AND HUNG FOR HIGH TREASON!!!

The Wizard
The Wizard
2 years ago

They will not change the lunatic course they are following because the “climate Cossacks “ will not relent and will not allow them to drill and pump. They would rather buy from dictators and world thugs who use the money for harming the US.
The crux of the matter is this- THEY DON’T CARE! It’s more important to destroy our economy and the oil industry than use any of our own resources to save any of us.

Gregory Russell
Gregory Russell
2 years ago

I posted a comment, and yet again, AMAC is censoring my comments. It is tagged as “Awaiting for approval”. And then AMAC has the audacity to ask for contributions so; “Our 501 (C)(4) advances initiatives on Capitol Hill, in the state legislatures, and at the local level to protect American values, free speech, the exercise of religion, equality of opportunity, sanctity of life, and the rule of law.”
Yoy cannot protect free speech, when YOU are restraining and censoring it. Personally, I am getting a refund for my dues and dumping this fake outfit. They are NOT a conservative organization.

Sean Richman
Sean Richman
2 years ago

AMERICA needs conservatives and very soon before we as a country go”belly up”.Look at our country now and then the way it was under President Trump.Like him or not we were far better off with him in charge than we are now with government corruption totally out of control.With the democRATS and fake Republicans in charge nobody but them are doing better.Vote them out and make their cheating a criminal offence with prison time.

Zue
Zue
2 years ago

Voter fraud will get worse, even with Voter ID because nothing on any ID indicates you are a citizen. States issue drivers license based on residency. Until citizenship can be proved by a ID illegals will be voting because they get a drivers license or state ID. Some citizens have trouble getting the REAL ID because their birth certificate do not have a “seal” on them. Early voting and mass Mail in voting as well as votes being received and counted days after the election closes allow for fraud. Democrats will change there promises and programs now to give voters what they want and they go back to their radical woke climate change age da after the election. To many people have not learned how to process and reason what they read or hear.

Luke
Luke
2 years ago

“To many people have not learned how to process and reason what they read or hear.” I might add that they won’t bother to even try to understand either. But, the elephant in the room remains: election fraud. They WILL cheat and they WILL walk away from it unfettered. Just like in 2020. The coup isn’t over yet.

I have relatives with masters’ degrees who still hate Donald Trump, his wife, his kids, his dog, his chauffer and his car. Think about that: masters degrees. And, they remain victims of TDS. The same intense hatred Nancy Pelosi has for everyone who disagrees with her is front and center in these people’s minds. She’s might’s well be a radical Muslim

Myrna Wade
Myrna Wade
2 years ago

This is correct: the Democrats should shift from unpopular positions but have shown/said numerous times that they do not plan to shift at all. An informed electorate will change the balance of power but that is if people listen and read and think. That is asking so much.

Westhus
Westhus
2 years ago

In this and any other election, conservatives cannot assume anything. Unless states have fully corrected the election integrity issues that characterized the 2020 debacle, there are persistent issues with the vote. Gov. Kemp in GA blocked a measure this week to strengthen the vote in the Peachtree state. With millions of illegals flooding the southern border already, providing the Left with potential new voters to deploy during the election cycle, those states that haven’t adequately secured their election systems cannot be counted on for anything but providing the Left with unfair advantages. Conservatives must vote and get others out to vote to stop the evil Left!!

Hal
Hal
2 years ago

It’s not a matter of which political party can continue to dominate its “power” in governance. The political parties are power pools of people who have managed to convince a majority of supporters that provide them with funds and power-influence for their personal gain. For most politicos, it is about personal welfare. And they vigorously are against term limits because it limits their ability to maintain and increase their personal/family wealth and power. The Biden family is an iconic example of this based in Delunaware. There ambition is virtually 100% personal welfare while seemingly to have governance welfare as a second consideration. TERM LIMITS is a needed and necessary change to the Constitution to at least put a halter on this self-morality-political flaw. This seems to be cynical …. but sadly not so much, as it has come to in recent eras of government of this great N ation

Casey C Matt
Casey C Matt
2 years ago

It is lunacy to talk of a red wave…….such talk can only serve to depress conservative turnout as many will feel “why bother, the Dems are gonna get killed in the election anyway”. Also never underestimate the evil nature of the left. Watch for a Biden departure for health reasons followed by a compliant media making a martyr out of the corrupt old drooler when he’s gone. Also watch for surreal amounts of blatant voter fraud…….there have been little if any consequences for the huge amount of fraud that has been proven to have occurred in 2020…….it will be worse this time I assure you.

Hal
Hal
2 years ago

Put simply: In order to maintain the intended function of this Nation’s Constitutional Democracy: (1) A reliable virtually uncheatable voting system much be created; (2) Term limits must be put on ALL elective and appointive positions in Federal government (includes SC Judges; FBI top administrators. CIA, Cabinet heads, etc.); (3) Illegal entry of foreigners must be stopped by whatever means possible .. jail time in the USA should not be more than brief phase of incarceration with prompt eviction/deportation to point of entry or to home country being last and promptly administered action.

Judy K.
Judy K.
2 years ago

My reaction to this article is what most others in this thread are saying; until voter fraud is a serious concern for those acting in charge in our government, the amount of fraud will get worse. I know this because I live in a blue state in which our legislature voted for vote by mail. I myself, along with my husband are going to take our ballots to our nearest Election Precinct. I’m going to be stressing that as much as I can to others in blue states to do the same. I realize their are some who need to mail their ballots, but there aren’t too many who need to do that. In the larger mostly Commicrat cities in our state, they’ll probably have their precincts closed, which won’t help the more outlying conservative counties. But we have to do what we can do. Money is always the big game in these elections, and I think that’s a problem too because the candidate who raised the most money becomes the RNC’s choice as the sole ticket winner on the ballot. Qualifications and moral integrity is what really matters. I read where a niece of Mitt Romney’s is the RNC Chair person, and that doesn’t help us either. I’m just praying to God for our country to have a Spiritual Revival and that God will be reverenced, worshipped, and glorified as our Lord once again. Seems like a dream wish at this juncture, but all things are possible with God.

Phyl
Phyl
2 years ago

I hope the red wave is comparable to the Drowning of the Egyptians in the Red Sea when the Israelites escaped from Egypt.

Hal
Hal
2 years ago

Red Tsunami??? No, but significant. The DemocRats have and will continue to prep for rigging out of sheer panic and realization that Biden, his family, and his cohorts are now recognized as criminals as well as being inept at governance. I have no doubt the DemocRats are laying out and ambitious strategy and plan concerned it is extremely unlikely that they can rig it like close to the last POTUS election. It’s too risky that they might lose some cooperation from their Media shills if caught doing it again.

Brian
Brian
2 years ago

Op-eds are in newspapers, most of which are little more than liberal bird cage liners. There are printed by liberals, and read by liberals. Who do you think writes oop-eds for these papers? Hopefully little more than whistling in the dark.

Wayne Peterkin
Wayne Peterkin
2 years ago

I hope there is a ” red wave” in November. I would like every single Democrat and a few RINOs all replaced. But it may not happen if our elections are not honest and the Democrats are doing everything they can to make sure the election is not honest. Second, the more stories like this the less likely a wave will be be. These “red wave” predictions motivate the bad guys to get out their vote, encourage the good guys to stay home because the result is predetermined, and provide even more incentive for insuring a dishonest election like the debacle in 2020. I think reports like this one might hurt our conservative cause rather than help it.  

Stephen
Stephen
2 years ago

Dems have proven they have mastered stealing elections. They don’t care if we know either. As long as liberals are not held accountable for their criminal actions there can be no electoral victories.

johnh
johnh
2 years ago

Comments on this board insinuate that the party that wins election will accept the results & the party that loses will not accept the results. If this rings true, what happens to our future elections? Someone has to accept the results for USA to become One United Nation again.

Jim
Jim
2 years ago

How do the retirements play into this upcoming change?
Are they all targeted by the opposite party? Are they considered Incumbent?

NPR says the House has 31 Democrats and 18 Republicans retiring?

How does the census driven redistricting play in all of this, and how much of that is still uncertain?

Last time, Republicans gained seats in the House despite losing the presidency and a massive wave of retirements.

Fred Rose
Fred Rose
2 years ago

Rigged elections will once again decide who winscandvwhonloses.

Daniel Dobos
Daniel Dobos
2 years ago

How do the commiecrats overcome bidenflation, open borders, the threat of food shortages and higher taxes

Meanwhile no one knows who is running the oval office, but it’s clear it ain’t joey b

Joan
Joan
2 years ago

All well and good until the clock strikes 3 am and the Dems haul in the “lost” ballots.

HocasPocas
HocasPocas
2 years ago

If what happened in the 2020 election isn’t seriously addressed by all citizens of this country, I’m afraid that we will see the same results as we did then and we all know that those results weren’t even close to what the citizens of this country voted for

Andrew P
Andrew P
2 years ago

I am not 100% certain that there even will be a midterm election. The war in Ukraine is escalating, as designed by US policy to undermine and destroy Russia from within. At some point the Russians will use nuclear weapons to change the game. The US President has vast statutory emergency powers during nuclear war. I think the plan is to declare a “nuclear war emergency” and to either enable nationwide by mail or internet voting, or to cancel the election entirely and simply extend expiring terms 2 years.

johnny
johnny
2 years ago

fix the cheating or none nof it matters. trump won in a landslide and got robbed. and the forever useless GOP has learned nothing since.

Steven
Steven
2 years ago

That number is a real possibility and grabbing the Senate is as well as long as the Republicans nominate centrist leaning candidates and not ideologues. Especially on social issues.

Raymond
Raymond
2 years ago

Not that I am being a nay sayer, I am not so sure we are going to pick-up enough seats in the Senate and or the House. The people that, for a lack of better words, rigged the last election have had, and will have plenty of time to look at the weak areas and what didn’t work. Yes, there was no wide spread voter fraud. We have 50 states and only 5 had the exceptional problems. See, no WIDE SPREAD FRAUD. Just 5 swing states. These people want control and are not wanting to lose their power. Just be aware, they won’t give up. America has the best Constitution and Bill of Rights in the World, we just have no one that can and will uphold our Laws and Rights.

Brian McMorris
Brian McMorris
2 years ago

Dem strategists rail on about the GOP “Far Right”. And just what is the “Far Right”? Where is this so-called extremism on the conservative end of the spectrum? There is nothing on the right like a “Progressive” left, promising to destroy American institutions, if not its very history. There are no KKK members in Congress. There really aren’t any “white supremacists” in politics at all, at least not brazenly so. The ideology of the right is to have no ideology other than God (all denominations), family and apple pie. The US Constitution, upon which the country is built and defended, is the bible of the right. Not very radical. It is quite natural for American citizens to drift or run towards this common cause that binds us as a nation and sustains us. Unless Dems give up on their radicalism and return to centrism where policy can calmly be debated, they will become a smaller and smaller slice of American voters.

Chrispt
Chrispt
2 years ago

After voting for the Pedophile-loving Ketanji Brown-Jackson, Masto-Cortez, Mr. Gabby Giffords and Maggie Hassan are finished. Hispanics are abandoning the Pedophile party in droves.

Jeff Warren
Jeff Warren
2 years ago

“If the economy improves….”
You mean if the unemployment rate goes lower than the lowest ever, and the economy creates even more jobs than the already stratospheric 400k jobs/month pace under Biden with impressive wage gains? I’m a 47 year old white guy in the crucial state of Michigan. I make well over 100k/year(yeah, yeah, I know big deal. When a DEM is POTUS EVERYBODY makes over 100k). Joe Biden was my 3rd to last choice(Trump was last; Bernie was 2nd to last). I voted for him knowing he would be possibly the worst POTUS ever. Why would all this slamming him discourage me from voting for DEMs(including “that woman”)?

Ted Weiland
Ted Weiland
2 years ago

So are you dizzy or are you waking up to the fact that you’ve been played like a fiddle?
 
Round and round and round and round again (incessantly) goes the Constitutional Republic’s election merry-go-round, providing both species of Crocodiles (disguised as Donkeys and Elephants) their turn at the helm, to undo whatever was accomplished by the previous administration.
 
And, people, the only direction it travels is round and round and round and round again (incessantly). It never changes and yet, tragically, every two and four years Americans clamor for their alleged voting rights to elect another nincompoop, scoundrel, incompetent, immoral reprobate, or outright criminal to rule over them.
 
230-plus years of the Constitutional Republic’s elections has proven that regardless whether a Donkey or an Elephant gets elected, America has only advanced further down her suicidal trek to the precipice.
 
Time to get off the Constitutional Republic’s biblically egregious election carousel.
 
God has better plan!
 
The best the Constitutional Republic’s election system can ever produce is the lesser of two evils. Sometimes the worst of the worst, and always the evil of two lessers.
 
The Bible’s election system provides the best of the best of two or more biblically qualified candidates, every single time.
 
For more, see blog article “Constitutional Elections: Dining at the ‘Devil’s Table,'” at Bible versus Constitution dot org. Search title on our Blog.
 
For how the Bible’s election system operates, at the same location, see blog article “Salvation by Election.”

Mike
Mike
2 years ago

Unless Biden can figure out how to draw out the Ukraine mess to his advantage, this economic and social climate will yield something NEVER seen before: the Democrats will lose 100+ seats in the House! People vote from their wallets, and the Left’s fascination with “green” energy is strangling American households nationwide!!

Daniel Dobos
Daniel Dobos
2 years ago

As gai boi pete told charlemagne yesterday

Those with dark skin should shut up and appreciate how diaper’s joe is fixing the infrastructure

mark humble
mark humble
2 years ago

I’m 73 and a similar situation existed here in rural Texas in the 70s and 80s. Growing up, there were 6 Republicans in our county of about 20,000 people. I recall their names. In the county’s entire history there’d never been a Republican officeholder. LBJ’s Great Society ran headlong into an outraged public. I don’t know any Democrats and we’ve had 100% Republican officeholders for more than 30 years. Biden’s war on energy, open borders, a steady drumbeat of sexism, racism and, finally questioning small children about their sexual preferences reminds me of those earlier times. Most all the decent people whom I know are pretty quiet. But, they’re very, very angry.

Rich
Rich
2 years ago

Pray that God will intervene and flip this government on it’s face. Anyone that would vote for more of the same is in the evil camp with the socialist/democrats and does not deserve to be called an American.

Gary
Gary
2 years ago

I am very skeptical. We are still 7 months out so the media has not gone into full-blown election disinformation yet. Also, 2020 taught us Stalin was right, “voters do not determine elections, vote counters do”.

Stan d. Upnow
Stan d. Upnow
2 years ago

The idiot Republicans are only good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Stop with the “Red Wave” BS!! STFU and work diligently & quietly to effect victory at the polls. The morons never learn. How many Hillary voters in 2016 stayed home because there was so much banter about her being a shoo-in?

John Brown
John Brown
2 years ago

Democrats killed our energy independence, tripled oil prices raising prices of everything, then dumped trillions in printed worthless funny money to pay off Dem billionaires & public employee unions giving us massive price increases in gas, food, Rents, homes, everything. Worse tripling oil prices funded PUTIN’s war in Ukraine. Biden/Dems paid for Putin to attack Ukraine. It’s their fault kids are being blown up. We also saw the total woke incompetence & unnecessary deaths of our soldiers in Afghan. Come Nov kick every lying incompetent pedo Dem to the gutter. All of them!

WIlliam
WIlliam
2 years ago

“Many observers also believe that President Biden’s current very low poll numbers will soon rise, and that he and his party will likewise soon abandon their radical and unpopular agenda”

I haven’t read anyone who has said that, let alone many. Historical data shows that President’s approval ratings almost never rise significantly after the spring of midterm years. It could well go lower for Biden if the situation on the border worsens significantly, as many expect it will…

Shiv
Shiv
2 years ago

Vermont? Someone really thinks Vermont will elect a Republican senator?

What a hoot. The GOP will certainly lose to Fetterman in PA. After the midterms, Manchin and Sinema will no longer have any power because the Democrats will have more than 50 seats.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
2 years ago

I just hope this “wave” is one of fiscal conservative, socially open-minded TRUE Republicans not the usual poseurs who call themselves one. I remember how suddenly everyone was “Tea Party” when it was fashionable to call yourself that until it meant nothing… so too I’m still wading through the candidates calling themselves “endorsed by Trump”! I want to vote for a FIGHTER not another Mitt Rino. They do NOTHING for me. But the nice thing in any case: they may do nothing for me, but unlike Democrats, they don’t usually do anything TO ME!

Less hate
Less hate
2 years ago

Alot has been revealed that I believe came as a result of DJT supposedly losing
Let’s hope it wasn’t in vain.

Bao
Bao
2 years ago

I think they will take the House, but I don’t think a wave is coming. Personally I’ve never been less motivated to vote. The Republicans had a miracle situation happen in 2016 and they completely blew it. That was a chance for a generational political re-alignment, and they threw it away with the same lukewarm, business-friendly policies that got us into this mess in the first place.

A Republican congress that will do nothing about the out-of-control crime, eroding middle class, busted social safety net, indoctrination in public schools, border chaos, insane immigration laws, and social media censorship just isn’t at all appealing to me. As much of a mess as the Dems are, I have no confidence the Republicans will do any better. I’ll either not be voting, or voting third party in November, and I suggest others do the same. It’s better to just let Dems blow the whole system up than to keep pretending everything is OK.

Stevo
Stevo
2 years ago

It won’t be a big red wave if America doesn’t get rid of Dominion , Smartmatic & other fraudulent – based “election” equipment , that votes by inputted software from the swamp ! Or it will be just like the last election for sure – just biden or another socialist / communist / career organized crime criminal the same as biden !

Barb
Barb
2 years ago

LET’S HOPE A REAL BIG RED WAVE! Let’s make Biden a lame (lamer) duck.

tempus
tempus
2 years ago

I would not count the Democrats; they are masters at stealing elections.

Donald Trump
President Joe Biden departs after speaking at the NAACP Convention, Tuesday, July 16, 2024, in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Mark Laws
Big Bend, Wisconsin, USA - Jan 22 2024: Kamala Harris delivering remarks at a political event

Stay informed! Subscribe to our Daily Newsletter.

"*" indicates required fields

378
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x

Subscribe to AMAC Daily News and Games