With early voting already underway in some states and starting soon in dozens more, the 2024 election has officially begun. In the all-important race for control of the U.S. Senate, Republicans appear to have a clear edge – but Democrats still have hope that they can retain control of the chamber or at least limit GOP gains.
Coming into this cycle, Republicans had what appeared to be one of the most favorable maps in years. While the GOP is defending just 11 seats, Democrats are defending an astonishing 23.
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 edge in the Senate, meaning that a net loss of even one seat puts them at a 50-50 tie. In this scenario, control of the Senate would be determined by whichever ticket wins the White House by virtue of the vice president’s role as President of the Senate.
Of Republicans’ 11 seats, eight are rated as “Solid GOP,” while one (Josh Hawley in Missouri) is rated “Likely GOP” by Real Clear Politics (RCP). Ted Cruz’s seat in Texas is rated as “Leans GOP,” while Rick Scott’s seat in Florida is rated as a toss-up.
According to the latest RCP polling, Cruz is leading Democrat opponent Colin Allred by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent. Scott, meanwhile, leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 46.3 percent to 42 percent. Both Allred and Mucarsel-Powell are current Democrat members of the U.S. House.
Republicans should not take anything for granted with 50 days to go until Election Day, particularly in light of disappointing returns during the 2022 Midterms. But history suggests that the GOP has reason to be optimistic that Cruz and Scott can hang on to their seats.
At this point in 2018, Cruz had an almost identical lead over progressive darling Beto O’Rourke. Despite O’Rourke spending $80 million to Cruz’s $38.9 million, Cruz won by about three points. Allred has so far failed to generate the same national hype as O’Rourke, and is only slightly ahead of Cruz in fundraising.
Scott faced what appeared to be an even more dire situation in Florida six years ago, polling neck and neck with three-term incumbent Bill Nelson. Scott trailed by 2.6 points in the final polls but eked out a victory by just over 10,000 votes. This year, it is Scott that has the incumbency advantage, and the state as a whole has trended Republican in recent cycles.
Moreover, Democrat Party leaders seem to recognize that winning Texas or Florida is still a long shot. Just this week, Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Gary Peters of Michigan said that, despite his belief that Texas and Florida are “in play,” the party will not be devoting more resources to those races.
If Democrats cannot pull off the unexpected and win in Florida or Texas, they will need to successfully defend all 23 of their seats to retain their majority – a prospect that appears grim given the situation in West Virginia.
With the retirement of Democrat Joe Manchin, West Virginia, a state that voted for Donald Trump by nearly 30 points in 2020, has become an almost certain Republican pickup. The latest poll in that race, out last month, has Republican nominee Jim Justice leading Democrat nominee Glenn Elliott by 34 points.
Of Democrats’ 22 other seats, RCP rates 11 as “Solid D.” Bob Menendez’s seat in New Jersey and Tim Kaine’s seat in Virginia, meanwhile, are “Likely D.”
Three more races – Maryland’s open seat, Jackie Rosen’s seat in Nevada, and Martin Heinrich’s seat in New Mexico – are rated as “Lean D.” While Republicans certainly still have a fighting chance in these states, particularly Larry Hogan’s bid in Maryland, Democrats have the edge with less than six weeks to go.
That leaves six seats currently held by Democrats that appear to be toss-ups – Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Montana.
As things stand now, then, Republicans appear very likely have at least one pickup in West Virginia, ensuring a 50-50 split if they hold Florida and Texas. Whether the GOP has outright control without needing to win the White House will likely come down to the outcome in these six states.
Of those, Republicans’ best chance for another pickup – and the majority-making 51st seat – appears to be in Montana, where three-term incumbent Jon Tester is trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy by 5.2 points in the latest RCP average. Sheehy has steadily expanded his lead throughout the course of the year and appears to now have the momentum in the race.
In all of the five remaining races, Democrats currently have a polling lead in the RCP averages. Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake by 4.5 points in Arizona, Elissa Slotkin leads Mike Rogers by five points in Michigan, incumbent Sherrod Brown leads Bernie Moreno by 3.6 points in Ohio, incumbent Bob Casey leads Dave McCormick by 3.5 points in Pennsylvania, and incumbent Tammy Baldwin leads Eric Hovde by 5.2 points in Wisconsin.
The Republican candidate could still win in any (or all) of these states. But it does appear that Republicans have some ground to make up here.
Notably, of the five toss-up races where Democrats lead, Ohio is the only state where former President Donald Trump won in 2020. But Trump won all five of these states in 2016 – bringing with him Republican Senators from all but Michigan, which did not have any seats up for re-election that year.
Trump could again prove to be the “X factor” in 2024. If he has a performance on par with 2016, Republicans could be on their way to a 53-55 seat majority – or perhaps even more if they can win more longshot races like those in Maryland and Nevada. If the results more closely mirror 2020, however, the GOP is more likely to have to make do with 51 seats.
Regardless, Republicans appear to be in a solid position to reclaim the majority next January. Now it is just up to GOP candidates and leadership to keep pressing forward and working to aggressively expand the map to ensure that majority is as large as it can possibly be.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.
