Critically valuable and timeless lessons can be learned from a variety of human activities, even ones that seem as opposite as violent war and peaceful political competition – like the 2024 electoral struggle that is currently underway.
Although on September 1, 1939, Nazi Germany invaded Poland, and thereby provoked World War II, there followed an eight-month period during which few actual hostilities took place between the major warring powers.
War was declared by Britain and France on September 3, and from then until May 10, 1940, very little actual combat occurred other than what took place between the German forces attacking the small Polish army from the west, and their then-ally Soviet Russia attacking from the east. This period became known as “The Phony War.”
British troops did soon land in France to fight with the French army, but these democratic allies, feeling secure from the fabled fortified Maginot Line placed between the French and German borders — which was supposed to be impenetrable — procrastinated, taking no notable offensive land actions against the German Wehrmacht while it finished its offensive against a helpless Poland and divided it with Soviet Russia.
Germany then repositioned its troops and quietly prepared for the next phase of hostilities.
Allied overconfidence was shattered when a German blitzkrieg was suddenly launched on May 10, with the Nazi forces making an end run around the Maginot Line through Belgium and quickly advancing into France, employing speed, surprise, savagery, and military innovation.
In a matter of a few weeks, the much larger French army, along with its British allies, were totally defeated. Only a miraculous escape across the English Channel from Dunkirk saved much of the British army and some French soldiers from annihilation or being taken prisoner — which would have then probably ended the war and made Nazi Germany the permanent master of Europe.
It is difficult to imagine how the heroic Battle of Britain that soon followed could have been won if the escape from Dunkirk had not happened.
The lesson from “The Phony War” was only a recent example of the age-old consequences of hubris, passivity, delay, and overconfidence in competition and combat.
A monumental battle is about to take place in the U.S. In fact, it has already begun. It is not a battle between military soldiers and forces, but between two armies — the political armies of the Democrats and the Republicans as they wage a pivotal electoral war for the U.S. presidency and control of the U.S. Congress.
Curiously, both parties seem to be acting as if they are now protected by some invisible Maginot Line as they position themselves for a replay of the 2020 presidential and national election, with the same personalities and probably much the same strategies.
Foretastes of what can happen when political parties take anything for granted occurred in 2022 when Republicans, believing the opinion polls, assumed they would win back control of the U.S. Senate as well as win the U.S. House by a big margin. It also happened in 2016 when Democrats, believing the opinion polls, assumed they would easily win the presidential election. Each party used their campaign periods to compete as if it were politics as usual while their opposition used new strategies to surprise them.
I suggest we are now in a new “phony war” period at the outset of the 2024 presidential and national campaign — but with both sides assuming it will be politics as usual. The voters, however, seem to be signaling they do not want politics as usual.
If somehow that is so, the Democrats might well win in spite of fielding a weak and unpopular ticket in a difficult economic and social climate — especially if their Republican opponents fail to innovate and bring new constituencies to their side as well as inspire their base to show up to vote.
The lessons of war and political competition are timeless even if the weapons and strategies of combat are constantly changing. Much can still happen in the 2024 cycle. Its prizes, contrary to conventional media opinion, are still very much up for grabs.
The current “phony campaign” period will end at some now-unknown future point, and a winning side — the side that pays most attention to the timeless lessons — will once again prevail.
