AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris
A rather low-profile special election in Ohio on Tuesday that nonetheless had major implications for the national abortion debate ended in objective disaster for Ohio Republicans and another state-level defeat for the pro-life movement. But the real tragedy for conservatives will be if they don’t learn several important lessons from this otherwise discouraging outcome.
What Happened?
By a margin of 57 percent to 43 percent, voters in Ohio overwhelmingly rejected a ballot initiative known as Issue 1 that would have raised the threshold to pass an amendment to the state constitution from 50 percent to 60 percent.
In Ohio, as in many other states, the bar to amend the state constitution is remarkably low compared to that required to amend the U.S. Constitution. In order to place an amendment on the statewide ballot, petitioners must gather signatures from 44 of Ohio’s 88 counties, with the total number of signatures being equal to at least 10 percent of the total votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. From there, a simple majority vote makes the amendment the law of the land.
Republicans in the Ohio General Assembly called the special election earlier this year after a well-funded group of pro-abortion organizations succeeded in getting an amendment on the ballot this November that protects a virtually unlimited right to abortion in the state. If Issue 1 had passed, the abortion amendment would have needed 60 percent of the vote to become law.
Currently, abortion is legal in Ohio up through the point of fetal viability, generally about 22 weeks.
Why Did Issue 1 Fail?
While there are always a multitude of factors that decide an election outcome, two main problems with Issue 1 stand out as potential reasons for its failure: structural flaws in the ballot initiative itself, and poor messaging strategy on the part of its Republican proponents.
Convincing voters to make a change to a seemingly less democratic process was always going to be a difficult task. Moreover, GOP leaders in the state initially denied that Issue 1 had anything to do with abortion – a line even the most credulous voter could see right through.
This gave off the unavoidable impression (one encouraged by well-funded liberal groups) that Ohio Republicans were trying to unfairly change the rules at the last minute in order to thwart the democratic will of the people. That notion undoubtedly motivated “No” votes from large numbers of Democrat and Independent voters and likely some Republicans as well who saw the question as more a matter of preserving the principle of “majority rules” rather than a pro-life issue.
To be sure, there is a valid and compelling argument to be made about why writing and amending state constitutions via a simple majority vote is a bad idea. For starters, it allows deep-pocketed special interests to mobilize a relatively small number of voters in low-turnout elections and effectively bypass the legislative process to enact laws that are often far out of sync with where the state is politically – which is exactly what is happening in Ohio right now.
But that rather complex argument is far more difficult to make in a way that breaks through to the general public than the comparably simple arguments the left was able to advance.
This leads to the next problem for Republicans, which is that they failed to message to voters on what Issue 1 was actually about. While the left hammered home that a “No” vote was a vote for abortion rights and “protecting democracy,” the right was far more vague in what a “Yes” vote meant.
Take, for instance, a tweet from the Ohio Republican Party on Election Day which declared that a “Yes” vote on Issue 1 would “protect Ohio values, preserve the people’s power, defend Ohio’s constitution.” While the mention of “Ohio values” was clearly a nod to the implications for the abortion issue, that type of veiled reference is hardly enough to inspire pro-life voters to head to the polls. And on the surface, raising the threshold required to pass an amendment from 50 percent to 60 percent seems like the opposite of “preserving the people’s power.”
Another billboard that showed up throughout Ohio in the weeks leading up to Election Day proclaimed that a “Yes” vote was “pro-gun, pro-parents rights, and pro-small business.” Again, the display contained plenty of conservative buzzwords, but very little connection to the actual substance of Issue 1.
Across the board, there was no consistent explanation for why a “Yes” vote aligned with conservative values in a state that has become increasingly red in recent cycles.
Trying to dance around the abortion issue was also clearly a mistake, as the net result was pro-abortion voters knew exactly why they should vote against Issue 1, but pro-life voters were not motivated to turn out to vote in favor of it. Republicans were likely understandably weary of leaning too hard into the abortion angle after defeats in other states like Kansas and Michigan, but as a result they ended up completely lacking a unifying message.
As is so often the case in politics, the side that told a simple story and had more conviction won.
What’s Next?
While the defeat of Issue 1 was undoubtedly a major setback for the pro-life movement, the fight is not over yet. Conservatives in the state can still mobilize to vote down the actual abortion amendment on November 7.
Step one in that effort will be developing a clearer and more concise messaging strategy on why the amendment is so dangerous and extreme.
Specifically, opponents of the amendment should expose how dishonest the text of the amendment is. While the amendment first proclaims, “abortion may be prohibited after fetal viability” – a provision that would seemingly leave the current law untouched – it then reads, “in no case may such an abortion be prohibited if in the professional judgement of the pregnant patient’s treating physician it is necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.”
Again, this sounds reasonable. But the extraordinarily broad language of “life or health” leaves the door open for radical pro-abortion doctors to perform elective abortions at any stage of pregnancy by simply claiming that killing the baby is necessary to protect the mother’s mental health – something which is disturbingly common in other states that already allow late-term abortions.
As the Editorial Board for National Review has explained, the proposed abortion amendment would also effectively invalidate Ohio’s Hyde Amendment, forcing taxpayers to fund abortions.
These are important arguments for conservatives throughout the country to grapple with because many similar battles are on the horizon. While the Dobbs decision was the greatest victory in a generation for pro-lifers, it also unleashed a wave of pro-abortion radicalism from which no state, no matter how conservative, is immune.
The left has realized that by pouring money into statewide ballot initiatives and using intentionally misleading language that seems on the surface to be quite moderate, they can in many cases make abortion laws even more extreme than they were before Dobbs. Ohio is case in point of this strategy and how effective it can be in blue and red states alike.
The fact that Republicans were afraid to lean into the abortion aspect of the Issue 1 debate is also another reminder that, as much as Dobbs was the triumphant conclusion of one battle, it was the beginning of a perhaps even more difficult challenge – creating a culture of life.
For 50 years, legal precedent, the education system, and the liberalization of every major American institution have masked the ugly reality of abortion and successfully framed it as an issue of women’s bodily autonomy rather than protecting innocent human life. Conservatives should recognize this, while at the same time understanding that apologizing or hiding from what they believe in is no way to change hearts and minds.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @ShaneHarris513.
Ending an existing life is MURDER, plain and simple!
Lord help those think ASSume abortion is not murder. Can you imagine kneeling before God Almighty on judgement day and saying–‘ It wasn’t a child-IT was a fetus”.
Be Pro Life
Rally people
Link to Pro Life groups
Stand United
The winning argument should be, if there is a heartbeat, there is life, do you have the right to end a life without consent?
Abortion is despicable and repugnant. It is more often than not, the taking of a completely innocent life in exchange merely for the mother’s convenience.
But unfortunately, this is a state’s rights issue and the US Constitution at the federal level does not address abortion without applying fabricated pretzel logic. As we see in Ohio, just because SCOTUS has returned the issue (rightfully) to the states, it does NOT mean the war on innocent life is over. We must heed the lesson here and pro-actively bolster our states RIGHT NOW. No one else will do it *for* us. You can either engage and do what you can to help or surrender your state to the left. Your choice.
Here’s my take on this issue. From what I’ve seen and read since the Supreme Court nullified Roe V. Wade and return the issue of abortion back to the states, where it constitutionally belongs, it is clear most Republican politicians can’t articulate the simple fact that abortion didn’t go away. For most women in the United States, abortion is pretty much the same as it was under Roe V. Wade’s guidelines. All that happened is the individual states have control over controlling whether those guidelines are slightly less or more restrictive going forward. That’s it. No one is banning abortions, unlike the hysterical MSM and Democrats are yelling non-stop.
In places like New York and California, Democrats think you should be allowed to have an abortion right up to the moment of birth in the delivery room. New York thinks abortion, opr more correctly euthanasia, should be allowed even after the birth. It that sane? No, but if that is what the majority of voters in that Democrat controlled state want, they now have the ability to codify that into state law. In some Republican run states, the majority of voters think the cut-off date for abortions should be something less than the 16 weeks that were standard under Roe V. Wade. So the majority of voters get to revise the terms for getting an abortion in those states. Again, this is what federalism under the Constitution is all about. Anything not delegated to the power of the federal government is defaulted back to either the state or individual under the Constitution. This should NOT be a hard for your typical Republican politician to articulate. Sadly however, it seems many are NOT up to the task. That says something about the quality of people elected to office, as communication skills should be given. No one is physically preventing anyone from traveling to another state to get an abortion, if that woman wants one outside of rules adopted by the state she lives in. This should be simple to convey.
I hope it will prove difficult/impossible for the progressives to pass unchallenged abortion on demand (by even 50+%).
The most important evidence I have that abortion is wrong if faced honestly: people who have attempted suicide and failed report that after they took what they thought was the fatal leap, they instantly regretted it.
Suicide and abortion are closely related.
Seems to me that abortion is the only and very effective weapon the left has left They are using it non stop wielding it around every step they make Where is medical community on it This is insane It’s 2023 not 1903 All the young girls affected by it and no one teaching them they are not a piece of common trash
This was an state constitutional issue and the left pounced on it and made it an abortion issue. Why is it that killing babies so resonates with the majority? The country going down the drain they see no danger.
Make it simple, but even more important, understandable.
The bad guys outspent the pro-life supporters 5 to 1. More Soros-style money going into the race meant the good guys started behind.
As an Ohio resident, I’d add that lies and exaggerations from the vote No crowd didn’t help the Yes vote either. Ads such as telling the people that voting yes would cause you to loose your voting rights. And implying that every citizen led initiative to change a law would now take 60%, while in reality, initiatives to change the Ohio Revised Code (laws) had no impact by Issue 1 as this was ONLY changing the processes for constitutional changes.
Whenever the lefty Commie D leadership (especially from the bamboozled indoctrinated) says their new fresh hell is introduced that will “protect democracy” the actual informed understand it will actually trample our Constitutional rights! The TRAITORS despise that We the People have rights and stuff! The powerful few (and their comrades) traitors currently with all the power/control are trashing our rights while amassing wealth…with little to no pushback or consequences for their myriad anti-American nefarious insane actions.
Republicans need to concentrate on 1. the economy 2. crime 3. education and 4. the border. That will be a winning strategy.
Where in the world was the Republican/conservative messaging? I live in Ohio and saw the left’s TV ads 10 times to 1 of the Republicans. The Ohio republicans better get their act together right now and hammer home the correct message with very effective ads, billboards, etc. right up to the November election.
Thank you! This was enlightening. I do not know why Republicans are so weak and scared. We know what is RIGHT, yet refuse to defend it in case someone whose values we do not espouse is rubbed the wrong way. It’s frustrating. This is why Republicans get accused of being the party of controlled opposition, or the uni-party. It’s why conservatives like me are proud to be conservative, but not proud to be Republican. It’s shameful.
I fear that the liberals are winning.
When will conservatives become as vocal?
Too many of us remain complacent and that will be our downfall.
If you look at the demographics of where the no votes were coming from it’s obvious that the liberal run large metropolitan cities carried the day. It seems like large cities spread the mental illness of liberalism where ever they are in the country. Nobody likes being told “NO” and liberalism allows them to do as they please in spite of the consequences of destroying the moral and fiber of the cities they inhabit.
I worked the polls for this election. Issue 1was overwhelmingly passed in our county. When I checked results of most other counties, I found the same results. It was the big cities and college communities that failed it. A few strongholds. We saw a huge turnout at our polls—like we would normally have for a presidential election. Our area was well-informed on what was involved, but I agree, the wording was confusing. We must do better. Lord have mercy and give us wisdom.
There is certainly a group of people with different attitudes and beliefs commenting here than there was in the Wall Street Journal this morning. It is sad that so many people believe that abortion should be encoded in a state’s constitution. Perhaps conservatives in Ohio can mobilize and put an abortion ban into the state’s constitution using the simple majority method that the failure of this bill allows.
The liberal democrats are a party of Corruption, Hate, Ignorance and Stupidity and we all know that by the way they Govern the Country. My opinion is that regardless how hard the Pro-life Republicans fight to end Abortion, I believe it’s a no-win fight because the liberals’ supporters are Ignorant, poorly educated or brainwashed and will do what they want anyway as will the liberals in DC. We tried to end abortion, but it’ll never happen because the evil right now rules the roost in DC so my suggestion to Republicans is to put this to rest for the time being and let them do what they are going to do anyway. We know what’s right and what’s wrong so just concentrate on keeping ourselves on the proper course because the only one that can Judge them anyway is our Creator, God almighty whom they will have to stand before and explain themselves to.
“..poor messaging on the part of Republicans..” is a CONSISTENT problem with the GOP and that failure comes directly to the leadership of the Party, i,e., Ronna McDaniel, chairwoman of the Republican National Committee. Her failure-after-failure is the reason I no longer contribute to the Party, but instead use my financial backing to support an occasional single candidate’s run for office. She’s was, is, and continues to be a TOTAL disaster. The fact that she got enough support from who knows whom (probably Mitt Romney-type RINO’s) to get re-elected as the head of the GOP Nat’l Committee says a lot about the Party and her/their intention to see a total collapse of the Party. At my age it won’t make much difference but I cry for my kids and grandkids. They have a tough road ahead.
Uh…no. Im in ohio. The author fails to note the ‘heartbeat bill’ the Rs passed which is being held up in court. It bans most abortions after six weeks. It is effectively a ban considering many women may not yet realize they’re pregnant and if they do it leaves only days to consider their position. I suppose our governor and legislature didnt quite have the guts to go all in. Heres the problem- 25% of voters want no restrictions. 25% want it banned completely. That leaves around 50% who want it available’just in case’. The Rs have precious little time to ‘evolve’ on this central issue. If they dont, we will see the 25% of radicals getting their way. The November amendment will pass easily. Late term elective abortions will result.
Well, as usual with side bar news headlines on some email news sites, I can’t find an article I read a couple of days ago about voting machine issues. Seems the poll workers in some locations were unfamiliar with the equipment or how it works and a number of voters had to place heir marked ballots in some orange bags to be tallied later.
Sound familiar?
Creating a culture of life cannot be done by vote or amendment. It will take a generation or two. Also, I can see the difficulty of convincing people that a too easily amended constitution puts it at the whim of the controlling party. Difficult, indeed.
These comments are amazing. Poll after poll, vote after vote shows that roughly 60% of the country believes in a woman’s right to make her own reproductive choices. I can’t understand why that’s so difficult to understand. This battle is over and done. How about we improve sex education and make contraceptives more readily available so unwanted pregnancies are rare? Just a thought
Once again, the Republican Party fails. How many failures does it take before the GOP Chairwoman (RINO) is removed from her post. She has done nothing but hurt the party since she took command.
Culture of Death: 1
Innocent Life: 0
Come on, Ohioans! You are BETTER than this!!!
In Ohio 12 counties out of 88 voted this down all large city Democratic strong holds.
Good luck to conservatives to pursue pro life goals.
“pro-life” is a dishonest misnomer for a group that is decidedly anti-life. Pro-metabolism, maybe, but anti-life, anti-rights, anti-liberty, anti-American. Or simply evil.
While the religious right concentrates on winning an unwinnable battle against abortion, they are ignoring the REAL WAR: freedom, western civilization, and free markets. They are losing that war for ALL of America, and All the West, and All humanity. No one believes you can run for office while aiming to outlaw same-sex marriage or homosexual practices, no matter how fervently you believe they violate religion or science (i.e.species must propagate, else they die). Yet the entire GOP apparently thinks you can win on abortion. You can’t. Please. Preach against abortion privately. But publicly, leave Dobbs to the voters.
Republicans appear stupid because they want simultaneously to fiddle with abortion rights AND win elections. The two do not go hand in hand. If conservatives want to be in a position to legislate, they have to win. Abortion pulls the rug out from under the GOP every time. Insanity is doing the same things repeatedly and expecting different results. Leave this issue along and win elections.
If you don’t think we the people should be able to make whatever laws we want by majority vote, then don’t act like you still believe in democracy. The argument that outside interest groups could run ads to change the people’s opinion is irrelevant. That’s called free speech. Take away our right to amend the constitution directly, and we have to work through elected representatives. You think they’re not easy for outside interest groups to buy and sell?
I wanted to edit what I wrote to include one more thought. As I wrote, the republicans are far out of touch with the electorate and are foisting their unpopular views on us all. This was emphasized by a single sentence headline in the columbus dispatch:
“Ohioans overwhelmingly support gun safety measures, but lawmakers not likely to act”And there you have it. The story details that 90% want background checks. Politicians won’t act on this, again likely because it threatens the politicians own financial goals. dispatch.com/story/news/state/2023/07/26/new-poll-finds-gap-between-ohioans-and-lawmakers-on-gun-issues/70409971007/
Your analysis is interesting, but off target. (I am an Ohio Physician, who, until Trump, typically voted republican).
First – Issue one reeked of political game playing of the worst kind. The republicans pushed a ban on August elections just last year because (they said) August elections were subject to low voter turnout which meant that special interests could push, and get approved, issues that were out of touch with the actual opinions of the electorate.
So, when the pro-abortion constitutional amendment was approved for the November ballot, they violated their own rule, and put this issue on the August ballot, hoping the low voter turn out would allow them to sneak this issue through. They were perfectly aware that abortion rights are favored by the majority in Ohio. They are also aware that abortion rights amendments have passed in every state in which it is been on the ballot. In traditionally conservative states, such as Kansas, the margin is typically around 55 to 45. I would point out that in presidential elections, such a margin would be termed a landslide.
They framed it in terms of protecting against special interests, while neglecting to mention, they themselves were special interests.
They proposal as framed, would have made it practically impossible to amend the constitution ever again, not just with the 60% requirement, but with the 88 county requirement. This would thwart an issue with broad majority support from ever being passed again.
Voters correctly saw this as a cynical, hypocritical, dirty politics ploy to rob us of our control over a legislature which, because of gerrymandering, does not well represent us.
Republican leaders who want to ride the coat-tails of the anti-abortion movement are deceiving themselves. More and more, abortion rights are a non-partisan issue with majority support. I again refer to the experience in the 5 states (out of 5) which have passed abortion rights amendments in the past year. They are in the minority, and only by resorting to dirty politics moves like Issue 1, would they be able to prevail.
They also made a tactical error in trying to alarm people that not passing Issue 1 would result in gun control laws that can’t be passed through the gerrymandered legislature being passed by the actual people. Instead of gaining support, it alerted me that they would be able to continue to force their views on gun control issues on citizens who are not in step with their views. A recent poll showed 90% of Ohioans want mandatory background checks for gun buyers. This, too, is an issue that the Republican leadership is totally out of step with real citizens, yet enforce their fringe views on us, likely to preserve their donations from the special interests they are so intent upon protecting us from.
The Republican leadership is dying by their own sword. Good riddance.
If the pro-abortion amendment is truly “far out of sync with where the state is politically,” as this writer states, then pro-life voters have nothing to worry about. The amendment will be defeated.
first of performance of a ballot measure says nothing about performance in a general election – period !
I have a female friend i have known for years , she checks pretty much all boxes if it comes to being conservative , she is staunchly pro gun rights , she beliefs that LGBTQ stuff has no business in school books and that sex changes on teenagers should be illegal , she is for border security and to crack down on illegal immigration , she opposes student loan forgiveness and voted for trump twice and will do so again , she would never vote for a democrat but yet she beliefs that abortion should be legal and that the government has no business telling a woman what to do ….. this woman lives in dayton OH and she voted against proposition 1 . why ? her reasoning is simple , first of she was concerned that raising the threshold required to pass a constitutional ammendment could backfire in the future as it could prevent republicans in the future of passing ammendments on crucial issues should the makeup of the chamber change , second so she said voting for a ballot measure that secures abortion wont affect any other issues the way voting for a democrat does
Ohioan here, the demographics of my area have drastically changed. Biden has built several huge low income housing projects in this suburb and we have a bunch of California Commie transplants. They love their sacrifices to Molech. If Ohio can’t fight this off in November, I’m getting out of here. The Lord leveled Israel for this sin and the Lord will deal with Ohio too. Republicans here are not really against abortion. We had a law that banned abortion and a liberal, murdering judge stopped it.
I did all I possibly could to promote a YES vote on Issue 1. The discouraging thing I saw was all the publicity to vote NO. There were mailings at least twice a week, frequent ads on TV and countless yard signs all crying NO because it defeats “majority rule”. I’m on the road daily and only spotted 3 signs encouraging a YES vote. Republicans need to understand that “the squeaky wheel gets the oil” and they (we) need to use every form of publicity available (and maybe even create a few new forms).
The fact is the majority of voters hate abortion but accept it within certain limits (before 2nd trimester). If we want to lose everything, keep being stoic! Losing means “abortion anytime, anywhere” so better SOME limits by (temporarily). We need to continue educating and gradually ppl will understand abortion IS murdering an innocent. Don’t try getting there with an “all at once, NOW!” mentality.
There is a lesson here for the Republicans & it is the same reason why Republicans fared poorly in 2022 mid-terms.. It will be interesting to see if Trump decides to change his tune on this subject to try to get more votes.
Millions of dollars from out-of-state abortion groups and supporters makes a BIG difference on a referendum! We must provide funds for pro-family initiatives and talk to our friends and families about them! Do Ohioans REALLY want Hollyweird values?
Abortion should be between a woman and her doctor – In my opinion abortion should be legal. The woman will have to make that decision, not lawyers or lawmakers.