AMAC Exclusive
With a Recall Election coming up on September 14, it appears Gavin Newsom is on the edge of defeat. What several months ago was a double digit lead in favor of Newsom has become a double digit shortfall, with the latest shock poll showing that 51% of Californians favor recalling the Governor, while only 40% want to keep him in place.
The poll, which was conducted by Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune on August 2-4 and surveyed 1,000 Californians, showed a marked shift in public opinion on Newsom from just a few months ago. In May, the same poll found that only 36% favored Newsom’s recall, while 47% opposed it.
The demographic breakdown of respondents paints an even more dire image for Newsom. 47% of Hispanics in the Survey USA poll said they support recalling Newsom, while only 41% say they would keep him. As California has the largest Hispanic population in the country, their lack of support for keeping him in office bodes ill for Newsom. 50% of self-described Independents also supported the recall, according to the poll. Even 23% of Democrats, including 13% of those who describe themselves as “Liberal” and a full 25% of those who describe themselves as “Very Liberal” said they would vote to recall the governor.
Other polls, like one conducted by UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times, found that most Californians oppose recalling Newsom. But those results may be misleading – when those same polls are weighed for the likelihood someone would vote, it was a dead heat—which makes the Survey USA/San Diego Union Tribune poll even more concerning for Newsom. The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows a 2-point gap in favor of recalling Newsom.
But who exactly would replace Newsom if in fact he was recalled? As of now, the Survey USA poll shows that Democrat YouTuber Kevin Paffrath would win the bid to replace Newsom, with 27% of respondents saying they would vote for him. Close behind him was conservative African American radio host Larry Elder, with support from 23% of respondents. Businessman John Cox, who has previously run for Governor, was the only other candidate with double-digit support at 10%.
Most polls, however, have shown that Larry Elder—a self-described Libertarian—is ahead. As AMAC Newsline previously detailed, Elder brings an impressive array of qualifications to the table, not the least of which is his demonstrated ability to communicate clearly and effectively to mass audiences. Should Elder secure the governorship, he would be the first non-Democrat governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2011.
Given this recent polling data, it stands to reason Newsom—a well-established Democrat in one of the most heavily Democrat states in the country—could realistically be replaced on September 14. If that happens—or even if it’s close—the reasons why are obvious and plentiful.
During Newsom’s tenure as governor, California has seen one of the most corrupt and wasteful periods in the state’s history. In January, for example, the California Employment Development Department, which Newsom oversees, admitted that it had paid out as much as $31 billion in unemployment funds to scammers. Newsom’s spending plans for the state haven’t been much better. In 2019, he proposed expanding state-funded healthcare to illegal immigrants until the age of 26, costing taxpayers millions. This year’s budget included an astronomical $12 billion to house the homeless and $600 payments to individuals, regardless of immigration status. A neutral analyst of the policy’s impact called it “shortsighted and inadvisable.” On top of all that, Newsom has awarded no-bid contracts to various supporters of his campaign.
Worst of all have been Newsom’s COVID policies, which include the most draconian lockdowns in the entire country, none of which led to measurably better outcomes on case numbers or deaths. To add insult to injury, Newsom has been caught in multiple “do as I say, not as I do” moments, most infamously when the governor was spotted with lobbyists dining in one of Napa’s most exclusive restaurants, The French Laundry, while he was shutting down the rest of the state and urging Californians to remain at home. While Californians couldn’t send their children to school, Newsom’s kids received in-person instruction.
All of Newsom’s disastrous policies have amounted to the slow death of the so-called “California Dream.” Homeless tents litter city streets and public parks. The state has seen historic rises in crime. Thieves in places like San Francisco now openly rob stores in broad daylight. Deadly drugs like fentanyl are taking a record number of lives in places like San Diego. Law-abiding Californians in many cases can’t even escape the rampant crime in cities because of the nation’s highest housing costs. The cost of living has skyrocketed , meaning a middle-class lifestyle is increasingly falling out of reach for many Californians. Newsom has tried his best to blame anyone but himself for the condition of his state, but voters don’t appear to be buying it.
In short, Gavin Newsom represents everything that has gone wrong with California. And that’s why the odds he’ll be recalled on September 14 are as high as they’ve ever been.
They elected this dictator, you think they finally figured it out! This is what all dictator’s do, his hopes of running for President will be dashed! Don’t you think that was his plan? We will be hoping that his days are really numbered!!
Let’s wait and see. He who counts the votes wins.
I guess the liberals in California got what they deserve
Why is it that EVERY White country is FORCED to accept unlimited third-world immigration, assimilation, and why is it that ONLY White countries are FORCED to become multicultural?
Nobody asks that of any non-White country.
Multiculturalism is just a code word for White Genocide.
Go Larry go from a native CA who moved many years ago.
Looks like the two most prominent liberal governors in the bluest of states are out very soon? Both hypocrites (as are all the democrats) and hopefully this is the beginning of the end for all of them. Just look at our former liberal president and his giant birthday bash attended by all the elites(total hypocrisy, so obvious it’s only about them .do as I say not what I do.
While Newsom may lose the vote, depending on how the Democrat party in control of the state decides to actually count the votes (boxes of mail-in ballots amazingly appearing in key voting districts), it’s a big leap to expect a lot of “woke” Californians, who just LOVE an endless stream of “free stuff” paid for by “somebody else” to suddenly become fiscal or constitutional conservatives and vote for anyone other than another Democrat promising essentially the same garbage as Newsom.
Right now I would say at best it’s slightly better than a 50 percent probability that Newsom actually goes. As for whether he gets replaced by someone like Larry Edler, which would be a serious step up if California was serious about getting their house in order, that’s a coin toss. It all boils down to whether the people want to just replace the face they see as Governor or whether they want real change that the state urgently needs.
May God Bless Mr ElderHe will be the answer to California.
And the millions of us who have given up and moved away are not even in the calculation.
Hooray Go Elder Go awesome Bust up the One party rule state
Newsome should be replaced. He is a governor in name only. He has let California become a homeless shelter across the state, allowed people to enter stores and leave with merchandise without paying, etc. Something needs to be done about the lawlessness in California and I think Larry Elder is one who can get the job done.
I don’t trust polls so I’ll believe it when I see it. But this may bode well. Even Californians have had it up to here with the far left agenda.
Any Pelosi money going into Newsom’s “dark money” pot?
Despite the removal of the healthcare individual mandate on Obamacare, Gavin Nuisance insisted on retaining it for California. I knew then this governor was an insufferable socialist Leftist. I know how I’ll vote on September 14, and I hope it’ll be goodbye to Governor Nuisance. Larry Elder for governor!
Newsom out? … Don’t bet on it!
I live here in Progressively Communist Democratic California and this Recall Election will be a “mail-in”, that’s right, ask President Trump about “mail-in” ballots? They’ll be mailed-in from every Blue State and from “dead” people in California. Outside of New York’s Cuomo, Newsom is the 2nd worst Governor in the country and on top of it, he’s Pelosi’s nephew! But I’ve got to admit, the weather here makes it almost bearable but just barely so!
Don’t think for a minute that the corrupt POS demonrat machine isn’t already quietly putting into place all the fraudulent mechanisms needed to skew the vote count. Bank on it!
I can hardly wait until September 14th!! Turning the page in our California history to end the corruption, end the policies that benefit special interests & weed out those who have selfishly refused to listen to California voters.
I’ve been a Californian most of my life & have seen the deterioration of this beautiful state. Maybe, just maybe, we will become a “red state” – I keep praying & ask our God to help us change the future course.
With the corruption in the vote tabulation, the propaganda by a complicit Media, and the deep state bureaucrats throughout California, it may not be possible to unseat Newsome, unless the DNC allows it.
We are talking about vanity and ego vs. money and political power.
Politicians like Newsome and Pelosi seem to enjoy both, with the insulation of the DNC.
Could you imagine Larry Elder winning the election? Can you imagine him instituting policies that work? Can you imagine people waking up and realizing Democrats are the source of California’s ills? Nah, me neither.
Newsom should remain in office to continue destroying California so that it can remain as a shining example of how liberalism and socialism will destroy the rest of the country if allowed to fester. That movement will ultimately make the rest of the country look like California if allowed to. Let the fires continue to burn and torch the evil that is California.
Newsome completely short-changes the residents of California on every major issue. From the China virus response to his tax and spend policies, he “sticks it” to the people. He should be soundly defeated in the recall election, but who knows what makes some of the voters think the way that they do. The voters should just list all of the things that are positive in their government since he became governor, and they should list what has been taken from them during the same timeframe. Their problems should be markedly highlighted, and that should drive the way that they vote in the recall. To keep him as governor appears to the absolute worst way to go next month.
Nancy’s Nephew is going down. Maybe he can run a winery. Larry Elder would be the man to take over. However he may run into political headwinds from the legislature. He can be successful if his victory margin is large enough to be interpreted as a mandate. Bye bye Gavin. Auntie probably won’t campaign for you out in the open.
You could pick a name at random out of the phone book and come up with a better Governor. Isn’t it amazing, 40 years ago this guy would have been tarred and feathered and run out of town. Today he still has 50% popularity despite his years of many failed policies as Governor.
It’s difficult to believe that 50% of the people still back a socialist creep like Newsome. But, it is California. They have a history of voting nut jobs into every office. Pelosi, Boxer, Waters. What a bunch of wicked, evil socialist witches. I cannot see Newsome getting thrown out. Somehow, with the corrupt voting and the large percentage of stupid people in California, he will remain. I guess the people will get what they deserve.
Unless you enjoy being treated worse than a prisoner with you liberties and financials being crushed by this tyrant, why would anyone support Newsom?
Look around, everyone is leaving that trash state. How do you not know that all the corruption, fires, homelessness is just retribution by God because of your falling away from God and embracing all that is sinful towards God.
That state will continue to decline till full repentence and action to draw nearer to God is done.
” Your rich, but actually your poor”.
Keep worshipping money, debauchery, illicit sex, blaspheming God.
California, you will be brought down to your knees. So will the rest of this country if they continue to follow that same path.
Thank God for Texas !!
Newsom shouldn’t be the only one to go, as a matter of fact he probably wouldn’t be there in the first place if a the thugs from the democrat party were not in power in California and the rest of the country. He is Piglosi’s nephew, does anybody really believe he got there through hard work, good policies, and honesty! Polls are usually dishonest anyway or shows the result the pollster wants you to see. If polls were honest a few more people should such as Joebama, heels up Harris, Schumer, Piglosi, AOC, Fienstien, you get the idea. But you can’t really completely blame them, I am sure they all cheated, lied, and connived their way into office but the idiots that did vote for them are a big problem and allowed the lie to happen!
I’m praying for Larry Elder to whip Newsome’s backside! We need changes to get us back on track and this election victory is just what America needs now! Prayer is powerful! Keep praying!
Something that we all need to keep in mind is that all these polls can be very deceiving and be made to look like something they are not. For instance saying that 50% of people favor something, 50% of what? What was the make-up of the polled group, and how big was the goup. Polls can be manypulated to indicate what ever one wants for it to indicate. The questions on the poll can be asked in a certain way to steer the respondents to give the answers that are preferred by the polster, and there are many other factors that come into play that can be utilized to steer results.
Larry Elder is the man . Just think, this can be a spring board for Larry Elder to joint the national political scene which by all means needs to be straightened out by common sense.
Gruesome Newsome get rid of him and choose Larry.
That’s great, but sadly, I don’t believe this election will be any more legitimate than 2020. I hope that I’m pleasantly surprised…but I’m not counting on it. Hope and pray for the best…but be prepared for another farcical election.
The “election” is already rigged same as 2020. The communists have allowed mail-in voting in California for the “special election”. The usps will be over run with ballots from all over the U.S. I’m not a pessimist. I am a realist.
Being in California, never seen this problem where we have negative population and business growth. Fear is driving Newsom recall across entire population: People are scared of more lock-downs, business closures, vaccine mandates, power outages, free discharging water into oceans during drought, forests not maintained causing huge fires, billions going to worthless stuff California is buying, schools not open, government handing free space and tons of money to homeless, Just opening jails for no reason, even more heavy regulation, taxation to increase California’s governmental surplus and voting machine problem. These are incompetent leadership problems. We are tired of California Gov. strategy of dividing people and then blame one group, when it is the Gov. leaders fault. When digging your own grave, first rule is stop digging and thrive instead. People are pissed, the polls are not a good reflection of what is really one the ground. Bye Bye Newsom!
Newscum has done nothing in this state for anyone but himself and illegals. OH, forgot…he let thousands of felons out of prison…..We pay the highest gas tax in all 50 states……our roads are full of pot holes like his head. Will be good to see someone in Sacramento that actually cares about the state and the people. And we need to pass a bill BALLOT HARVESTING ILLEGAL. That is how the POS got in office to begin with.
I too fear that the recall election will be rigged like it was in 2020. If this electoral corruption isn’t fixed soon, our democracy is for all practical purposes lost.
Newsome is a lying, useless, failed democrat!
Time to go!
Gruesome Newsom knew some tricks … but his governance skills and actions were loathsome for the most part. Newsom new some tricks to get elected. Newsome and Pelosi … the California gruesome twosome of Californica DemocRat politics! And if you want to expand to a gruesome three some, throw in Camel Hairis! California has a lot of good people and citizens, but the DemocRats has communized state politics and many Californians are starting to wise up.
I have lived in California since 1953, I was 3. My family moved here from Alabama. My father worked in construction and California was building. Several of our family members made the move as well. It was a beautiful welcoming state at that time. A wonderful place to grow up and grow. Wonderful neighborhoods and lovely neighbors. I no longer live in the Los Angeles area, in fact I’m afraid to go there anymore. Too much crime and homeless. It’s tolerated by the governing forces (ie Gruesom Newsom). Criminals being let out of prison long before sentencing is carried out. Many have left the state. So sad. My children and grandchildren are here so I won’t leave. But my heart is breaking for this once great state. I will be voting for Larry Elder, I just won’t give up hope!!
Like other democrats states you get what you vote for.
Hopefully cuomo goes too
When will California wake up and stop allowing airheaded Hollywood and hippie geezers to lead them further down the road to oblivion? The radical leftists have never, ever succeeded at anything other than oppression and equalization of misery for the useful idiots that follow them……
Your statement is a reminder of another person that is currently serving in a higher office, creating the same HAVOC nationally.
He deserves it due to the California debacles
Pelosi should be booted right behind him
Regarding the “mentality” of the CA voter – How does a blatant communist like gov. nuisance get elected anyway ? I left CA at the end of ’88 and am glad I was transferred. It USED to be a great place in years before. What happened ? Many things and the wrong things at that.
I am totally praying we replace him with a good American governor who loves this country and this state. Had enough of the BS and troubles.
Gruesome Newsom is about to lose ’em …. Hispanics! They are finally catching on to the truth that DemocRat politicos believe they own the Hispanic vote … much in the fashion that Hitler Nazis thought they owned the Jews.
Not only Californians, but voters in most other states, must realize that the DemocRats have managed over time to get an edge on the voting process (Cheating) in such a way that they can seemingly get majority support at the polls even when they don’t have it in reality. Pre-Eisenhower Presidency the DemocRats in Texas managed for decades to control voting to lock out Republican and other non-Democrat politcal contenders by clever application of cheating. They were so good at it that it was considered fair in DemocRat primaries for the winner in that primary was often the best cheater. For example, that is how LBJ won his first Senate seat in the ’30’s … he out cheated his opponent and everyone new it .. but that was the hallmark of DemocRat balloting … and still is to some degree nationwide.