Is Maine a National Bellwether?

Maine was once a conservative state, notoriously so. The phrase “As Maine goes, so goes the nation” accurately predicted 23 of 29 presidential elections up to 1932. If Maine’s governor was Republican, so was the president that year. In the 1970s, Maine began slipping. Is Maine back?

Arguably, the beginning of wisdom is knowing where we lie on the arc of history – personally and politically, with respect to our nation, state, and locally. Seeing around corners is hard, but good.

Forty years ago, as a kid in my 20’s, the opportunity presented itself to interview legendary Maine Senator Margaret Chase Smith, one of America’s first female senators, the first women to have her name placed in contention at a national convention for president, and leader of conscience.

Smith was a conservative who travelled the world to meet global leaders, women of enormous conscience, internationally and domestically respected. She was also, with few exceptions, last of a breed, patient, thoughtful, a friend of Dwight Eisenhower – who visited her in Maine – and Maine’s Democrat Senator, later Secretary of State, Edmund Muskie. She was strong, all about reason.

By 1980, Maine was changing. Maine no longer predicted national trends, would soon flip back and forth between Democrats and Republicans, until 30 years ago, when Democrats got the upper hand – minus four years under Republican Governor Paul LePage – and Democrats dominated.

But there are strong indications, and they should be taken seriously, that Maine’s core values and history as a conservative, common sense, everyday American state may be returning.

To some, that may seem an impossible dream, an unlikely turn, but look at the facts. Several years ago, Maine’s Democrat Governor, Janet Mills, three Democrat constitutional officers – including an embarrassing Secretary of State who tried to throw Trump off the ballot – and Maine’s legislative majority in the House and Senate began to come under intense fire.

More, they began doubling down on woke culture, ignoring public safety, drug trafficking, record high spending, high taxes, an eroding business, educational, and energy foundation. In a phrase, as an arrogant, one-party state, they began to betray the Maine people, who began waking up – culturally, morally, economically, from a public safety, care of kids, common sense perspective.

Recent events, the dustup over ignoring 50 years of Title IX law, Trump executive orders recognizing male and female as the only two sexes, stopping wild expenditures on what one Maine legislator, Rep. Reagan Paul, aptly calls “wind fantasies,” and a massive budget deficit, prove the jig is up.

In short, after a 50-year hiatus, there are signs Maine is about to emerge – between now and 2026 – as a conservative bellwether again. The Maine people – perhaps 85 percent of them in total – seem increasingly disaffected with Marxist, progressive, woke, morally bankrupt Democrat leadership.

The land of reason, common sense, small government, individual liberty, and independent thought, not to mention moose, eagles, bear, deer, and lots of snow, is about to show that Maine can lead again.

Predicting the future is hard, was at the outset and it now, but there are signs, historic, readable, and worth pondering, that the outrage Mainers are showing toward Democrat one-party rule, similar to what you see in other blue states, are about what is about to happen. Once again, Maine may recover its grounding, become a bellwether, and prove that conservative values eventually prevail.

Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC. Robert Charles has also just released an uplifting new book, “Cherish America: Stories of Courage, Character, and Kindness” (Tower Publishing, 2024).