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Forget Polls – Election is Everything

Posted on Monday, November 2, 2020
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by AMAC, Robert B. Charles
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pollsPolitical polling is suspect, more now than ever. Accuracy – as in 2016 – is a real question.  Biden appears to lead in national polls – but deeper analysis tells a different story.  Without wishful thinking, unpack facts.  And remember, elections not polls are what matter.

First, survey response rates are critical – and unknown.  Statisticians say response rates affect results. If a phone surveyor contacts 10 people before one answers, “non-response bias” exists.  That bias is important.  It comes from how people feel, plus survey administration, question length, and circumstantial factors, such as the respondent’s time, interest, fear, and distrust.

Here is the kicker.  Most political surveys, conducted on a short fuse by phone, do not reveal their response rates.  They do not admit “non-response bias.” What could that mean? A lot.

Consider a good response rate is one-third of those contacted.  Non-political experts say, “a low response rate can give rise to sampling bias if the nonresponse is unequal among the participants.”  In other words, a survey that irks those called – who are busy, stressed, fearful, distrustful, increasingly private, or maybe just conservative – misses an entire demographic.

Experts say “non-response bias may make the measured value” useless, even misleading.  What happens “behind the curtain” matters.  For most political surveys, we have absolutely no idea.

Before leaving “response rates,” note Pew Research reports political polling saw a 36 percent response rate in 1997 – but today gets six percent.  That means more than 15 people say “no” to a caller, before one says “okay.” See, https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2019/11/19/a-field-guide-to-polling-election-2020-edition/.

Another issue is “survey design.”  Short surveys increase response rate, but mask big issues. Knowing who won a debate does not reveal who someone will vote for, or if they will vote. Leading questions often produce desired answers.  That makes survey data inherently dubious. Omitting options – like USA Today omitting Pence’s name while surveying post-Pence-Harris debate – tips responses. Net-net, survey design can also undermine results, and mislead.

Now note this:  Phone response rates have been falling for decades.  As people shift to cell phones, call blocking, avoiding spam, protecting privacy, and get tired of surveys, they get less accurate.  Online options and social media reduce interest.  Then, add exhaustion with politics.

What else affects accuracy?  Curiously, in the United States more than elsewhere, COVID-19 stress is affecting mental health.  Perhaps a third of the country is highly stressed.  This reduces public engagement, even when emotions run high.  Surveys are likely their last concern.

As Pew notes, online polling – while convenient – makes demographic identification hard, so “random sampling” is impossible.  Today, 10 percent of Americans are “offline.”  Pew coyly notes they are demographically unique.  Yes, and another thing: They vote.

The last reason to question polls is counter- evidence.  Perhaps Biden is leading, but that is hard to square with Trump rally data.  On October 28, Trump’s rally in Bullhead, Arizona – with 23,000 in attendance – showed 24 percent not Republican, and 45 percent new voters since 2016.

Likewise, the Goodyear, Arizona rally produced 17,000 attendees, of whom 20 percent were not Republican and 35 percent new voters since 2016.  Reflecting other rallies, the Omaha, Nebraska rally saw 43,000 attending, with 40 percent not Republican and 24 percent new voters.

What does all this mean?  It could mean a repeat of Reagan’s 1984 realignment of Blue-Collar Democrats behind a Republican president.  Reagan stunned Democrats – winning a second term with his 1984 walk-off homerun.  Could it happen again?  Hard to say, but polls do not take these hard numbers into account – in critical electoral states.

Of course, the real reason polls fail to predict elections goes beyond dismal response rates, absence of random sampling, and demographic inaccuracy.  It goes beyond survey bias.

The real reason polls fail – is that they are not elections.  Polls – even the best – are just snapshots.  They are not real.  They are here and gone, of no consequence – soap bubbles not a signature.  They are a whim, venting of emotion, if people bother …which many do not.

Elections are very different.  On voting day, early or late, absentee or in-person, we are exercising a sacred right – a solemn, constitutional duty. We know this affects our economic wellbeing, chances of work, return on investments, fate of family, right to speak and worship freely, travel unrestricted, protect ourselves, private insurance, stability on streets, security at borders, fidelity with Founders.  Elections are real.

In 2020, our vote affects who will sit on federal courts, determining whether our Constitution remains “law of the land,” and whether this Republic – in Lincoln’s words – “will long endure.”

That is why voting – is different from polls.  That is why the modern obsession with knowing the unknowable before an election – more vanity than validation, nonsense than horse-sense, is an unhealthy distraction, deception, defiance, not accurate refraction, reflection, or science.

Trump knows this.  Whether Biden does is secondary.  An electoral win is the key – and depends on our voting.  Polls aside, the big day is here.  The nation’s future depends on Americans of good heart, who love this country, voting.  Tomorrow, polls will be dust in the wind.  This election – this one precious moment – is what really counts.  Use it well.

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Honey
Honey
4 years ago

Trump/Pence November 3rd. And we must win the Senate and House and Governorships. I don’t want a slim victory. I will take it, but I want a landslide for our side because we must trounce this radical left Democrat party and bring back a respectable loyal opposition party. And the left media must suffer and be disgraced.

Shoe
Shoe
4 years ago

I have always felt that polls put too much weight on States like New York and California that is full of liberals. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter what the margin is in those states, they still only have the same number of Electoral votes. This deceitful polling practice ?, however, always makes it look like the liberal is way ahead.
Our community just had a 60 golf cart parade for Trump and the energy was amazing. There are a few Biden signs around but those people stay locked in their houses.
This will come down to whether of not we still have a majority of brave red-blooded Americans ???? or if the cowardly basement dwellers have populated like rats into a majority?

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
4 years ago

already voted, pre fill ballott & use drop box NOT mail box
statewide CA

Joyce Gibson
Joyce Gibson
4 years ago

I hope that all Christians are praying for the election, as it is the most important one in my lifetime. It is so imperative that Trump keep the presidency and that the Republicans keep the Senate and retake the house if we are to remain the United States of America. Otherwise if Biden wins and the democrats take the house and senate, we are doomed to be the Communist/Socialist State of China and Russia.

STEPHEN GREENWELL
STEPHEN GREENWELL
4 years ago

Jesus Christ did warn to beware of false prophets, as did Moses when Moses was teaching the wilderness generation how they were to live in the Promised Land. Moses gave two criteria for extinguishing false prophets from real ones. [‘Rock concert’ meant something different in those days.]
First, if what happened was different than they predicted, they were false. Second, if they promoted worship of other gods, they were false. The pollsters in the established media are guilty as hell on both counts. GET YOUR [SELVES] TO THE POLLS AND VOTE!

Phillip
Phillip
4 years ago

Thank you, Mr. Charles, for saying the many things that needed to be said. Not just the analysis of the flawed polling and the hope that we can take from it, but also pointing out the “exercising [of] a sacred right–a solemn constitutional duty” that gives true meaning to the phrase “government of the people, by the people and for the people. ”
Well said.

Steven
Steven
4 years ago

Anyone with a brain and can think for themselves can see the difference, but just incase you can not…Vote Trump 2020!

James
James
4 years ago

Excuses will not be accepted! If you still believe in America, you have only one choice! DONALD TRUMP! Get out and vote! Vote out all democrats!

Maria Salamanca
Maria Salamanca
4 years ago

My girls. two girls and i, vote in person for Trump!!.

Deploreable Sam
Deploreable Sam
4 years ago

Amen brothers and sisters!

TRUMP / PENCE 2020

Just Say NO to Crazy Joe
Just Say NO to Crazy Joe
4 years ago

I won’t quibble with anything the writer says, but he misses a lot. The response rate for DEAD people is ZERO. And all are democrats, and most of ’em vote. Many if not all states have set up alternative voting methods, and all are, to my mind, highly suspect. These absentee etc. ballots are highly subject to tampering and fraud. And the fraud is perpetrated by the left. This does not show up in the polls.

I believe the left realizes there is a good chance they do not have the legitimate votes to carry the election. It’s pretty clear to me that the election will be close, no matter which way it goes. So they are taking steps, and preemptive measures, to deal with the possibility of a Trump win. Their lap dogs, the media, are asking Trump if he will concede the election. And as usual he lets himself be played. Instead of saying, “OF COURSE I will concede, if I do not have the votes”, he says he has lawyers ready. This is fuel for the hate driven left to use to create doubt and divisiveness even before the vote is done. Never mind the left have their own teams of lawyers, which they boast about, it’s Trump who is the bad actor. Does anyone ask Crazy Joe if he will concede? If so I have not heard the question, nor his response. The left want the populace to be suspicious of a Trump win no matter what, so they can challenge it. In light of recent events, it is highly unlikely that sending anything but an open and shut case in their favor to the Supreme Court will do any good. I have the uncomfortable feeling that, should things not go the left’s way, they may try to involve the United Nations to come to their defense. This last is highly speculative, I admit. But the rest of the stuff, and more, the evidence is there, and plentiful, for anyone to see, who cares to look.

And those are just a few reasons why the polls are not even worth acknowledging, never mind discussing. Ignore them, and GET OUT AND VOTE, and bring someone of like mind with you.

Art A
Art A
4 years ago

THE ODDS MAKERS ARE REALLY INTO THEIR PREDICTIONS. THEY HAVE TO MAKE $$$$$$$ FOR THEMSELVES. POLLSTERS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. They do “research work” for other entities. They get paid no matter what happens. Polls can be skewed to indicate whatever flavor may reflect reality. So many of these pollsters will look like fools after this election. There are too many variables,insufficient responses,or methods as these folks try to earn a paycheck.

THE BILL IS DUE. PAY UP TO THE CORRECT AMOUNT!!! MAGA/A-KAF-KAG TRUMP-PENCE 2020

Jack
Jack
4 years ago

I’ve already voted but I received 1 call with someone taking a poll for the Presidential Election and when they asked if I had decided who I was voting for I immediately told them President Trump and they hung up on me. I guess that wasn’t the answer they wanted so I probably got classified as no response. The voters better decide what they want. Four more years of progress, employment, private health care and a booming economy or a lifetime of the crazy far Left radical Socialist/Communism. They are already talking about packing the Supreme Court and abolishing the Electoral College. If and when the Dumocrats gain control, our election process will no longer exist. So get out there and vote for President Trump like your life depends on it because it does.

Allan Brem
Allan Brem
4 years ago

I do not believe that phone polls have any credibility. I believe in web-based surveys from recognizably legitimate sources.

Brenda Blunt
Brenda Blunt
4 years ago

Go Trump Go!!

GT Patr
GT Patr
4 years ago

I’m so grateful we have an opportunity to re-elect a real changemaker (Trump) instead of another gutless republican
( ie Romney, Mccain, Bush) or Democrat. They’re all the same. The key reason this will be a record setting turnout election
is that we have a chance to make a huge difference. In the past, its all been about which swamp creature you
preferred. Trump has forced the dems to reveal who they really are. They are now exposed and naked and they are
communists.

Myrna
Myrna
4 years ago

I appreciated this article: wise and inspirational. George Soros — open society, whatever that means, is not impressing many voters. The Democrat party is off its rails. I hope this election proves voting is personal. A public school teacher is telling her story on Right Side Broadcasting: she is witness to teachers recruiting for ANTIFA and BLM. America needs factual history to be taught.

Rachel
Rachel
4 years ago

I have already voted but I am praying for my neighbors, most of them are blue voters and they do not understand what that would mean for them. They do not listen to others, since they have made up their minds. So I am praying that God will open their eyes and see that Socialism is not the answer. Please pray today and tomorrow for our country. This country was founded on God’s word. I pray we will get back to it.

Ruth Pierce
Ruth Pierce
4 years ago

I was always told that the only election poll that counts is the one in early November (ELECTION DAY). I voted absentee about a month ago for President Donald Trump’s re-election! I have a feeling that more people will vote in this election than ever before. I like what your article said about Reagan Democrats. Maybe after tomorrow we will have “Trump Democrats”. That would be fine with me!

RH Kranz
RH Kranz
4 years ago

I would like to add something to “survey design.” I frequently see survey questions worded like this: “Are you happy with the way things are going in our country?” I am conservative and voted Trump/Pence 2016&2020. I see dembs impeaching him, threatening to re-impeach him, preparing to “stack the court” and add D.C. and Puerto Rico as states, ruining Justice Kavenaugh’s life and reputation, and assaulting Justice Barrett’s religion. So if a survey asks if I am happy/satisfied with the way things are going, I say “Nope.” And you KNOW my answer gets folded into the lamestream’s tally “In a recent poll, X% said they were unhappy with the direction this administration is taking the country.” Devious!!!!!
On another topic (briefly), I also believe widespread reporting of Sleepy Joe’s nearly insurmountable lead in poll after poll is a perfect example of voter suppression from The Left. “Why go and vote for Trump? It’s hopeless! You are wasting your time.”

Garye
Garye
4 years ago

Please – EVERYONE make sure you vote for President Trump,
American freedom is on the line!
We need a RED WAVE like the failed,corrupt anti American socialist democrats have never seen before!

Mimi
Mimi
4 years ago

I think that our president will be elected by a huge majority. I live in California and I wouldn’t be surprised if we go red this year. On a neighborhood site I participate in, the democrats are discussing Biden’s tax increases and their afraid. Our state is already over taxed by our liberal government and none of us can afford to pay more. The uninformed among them say “no increases unless you make over 400K”. The informed and math proficient among them say, but he is going to end the tax cuts which means we will all pay more in taxes and I can’t afford to pay more!! Plus in my community we’ve had two big Trump rally’s on the last two Sunday’s. Big caravans driving and honking for Trump. Really makes the Dems freak out!!!!! Hahahaha. TRUMP 2020 !!!!!!

Homer
Homer
4 years ago

I answered a poll once. The 1st question was a double negative. I was confused and didn’t answer the question. End of call.

John A. Fallon
John A. Fallon
4 years ago

Freedom of the press means if you are unbiased and honest, give “we the people” all the FACTS and let us make informed decisions nobody can file a lawsuit against you or fire you, lying to us to get your way is illegal, after we RE-ELECT TRUMP we should DEMAND that the MSM get punished for thier crimes and lose thier grossly overpaid jobs. VOTE FOR TRUTH, FREEDOM AND LAW AND ORDER! R.E.D. AND VOTE TRUMP!!

AL PELLICANO
AL PELLICANO
4 years ago

I’m voting for President Trump count on it voting republican all the way so President Trump has both the House and the Senate!

Sharon Ormsby
Sharon Ormsby
4 years ago

After hearing Biden’s speech today, I couldn’t even believe what he was saying! Does he really believe what he was saying? Nobody was cheering for what he was saying, nobody was honking for what he was saying until he asked them to honk for him. He said finally, we’ll take back all the business that we’ve given to China-excuse me, isn’t that what Trump has done? Then he went on to falsely state about the business Trump had in China which was closed before he even ran for office. Not a word about his own son’s dealings…dead silence from “his audience”, was there one? He went on and on about all of the things he was going to do and shame on him-Trump has done them. Then he went on to say all these things about Trump was bad. Seriously, if people put him in, they all need their brains examined.

Patrice K
Patrice K
4 years ago

I must say, I have been getting tons of calls & texts this year. Is it bad that I have been telling the polsters that shuuuure I will be voting for the Democrats! Uh huh sure I will be. Sarcasm implied. I am hoping that the Dems will be blown out of the water & the red tide washes them down the drain.
We must also win our states elections if we want to control the government the least little bit. Local elections are every bit as important!
Vote people!

JohnH
JohnH
4 years ago

I am one of those people that will never tell strangers who I will vote for. That is private & will keep it that way. The phone calls are another pain that people learn to not answer or hang up, so the polls today do not mean as much as the old days of person to person polling. Just heard on news this morning, that Republicans made 1-million phone calls in the last week That number is staggering & I was not one who was called.

Jones
Jones
4 years ago

Polls do not effect me because I have made the decision never to vote for another liberal. The last 4 years have shown me that there is absolutely no worth in the Democratic party.

Judy
Judy
4 years ago

Apparently only people with even the slightest bit of intelligence know better than to follow polls. Politico is one of the worst Liberal non-fact reporting Social Media sites which continues to roll out the poll numbers for the Left’s candidate, Joe Biden. I couldn’t help myself, I just had to comment that I was ecstatic about Biden beating Trump in the polls. I wrapped it up with, “Polls don’t lie!” Hoping some of the dumbheads would latch on. Our country needs hours of earnest prayer for this election. we’ve never been in such a dangerous position before. Also praying the outcome won’t lead to a civil war. At the same time I don’t expect our American Patriots to lay down and take voter fraud by the Left though either. Christian’s get your votes in…and sign your ballots!!

GT Patr
GT Patr
4 years ago

Frank Luntz ( a popular pollster) said that if the polls are wrong this time, the industry is dead

GT Patr
GT Patr
4 years ago

I am much more concerned about becoming communist than being a covid patient.

Raymond
Raymond
4 years ago

A waitress yesterday wanted to bet me a dollar that Trump will win again. Just to jinx Biden I took the bet. I am not ready to call my friends “Comrade”

Larry W
Larry W
4 years ago

I believe this article is correct in that polling is becoming less accurate noted by all the reasons listed. The country is so polarized and evenly divided that you can’t get a true sampling from most regions anymore. One will be slanted in one direction and the other is completely opposite. Are folks truthful when they answer the polling? Remember, No one knows how you vote when you go into the booth by yourself.

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
4 years ago

Joe Biden is the perfect Communist Candidate!  He is incapable of thinking for himself!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for America!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
4 years ago

The DemocRats, The Media, Teachers Unions, etc. try to make us believe they are invincible!  They ARE NOT!  Push back against the bullies!! Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
4 years ago

First Remove every DemocRat (RED), then we can eliminate all RINO’s – the “old line” Republicans.  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
4 years ago

Because of the traitor Paul Ryan and the RINO’s, President only had a partial/sometimes majority!  We AMERICANS need to give OUR President a TRUE Majority in 2020!!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
4 years ago

What is happening today is exactly why OUR Founders wrote and passed the 2nd Amendment!!  If we are not willing to fight for OUR Country, we do not deserve to have it!!  There are STRONG indications that the “Left/Communists/DemocRats are planning some sort/level of THE “Reign of Terror” when President Trump wins reelection!!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution Version 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
4 years ago

Lincoln wanted for the slaved to be able to “eat from the work of their own hands”! The DemocRats, the RINO’s, the Media, the Entertainment Industry, etc. (That is: the Communists) want everyone to be dependent on “The Government”!! Control your own destiny!! Be free!! Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
4 years ago

Get our Children our of Public Schools and turn-off Mainstream Media!  Become a Free American!!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for Our Republic!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Bill Brown
Bill Brown
4 years ago

Both the DemocRat Party and the National and International News Media belong to the One World Government/Communist Machine!! Turn them all OFF!!  Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!!  Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!!  Stand-up for America!!!!  Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!

Jim b
Jim b
4 years ago

Polls in the 2016 and this election were cleary used as tools to discourage republicans.
You could possibly call it voter suppression if you were a democrat.
Jim

DORIAN H
DORIAN H
2 years ago
  1. there are too many people ignored by Congress in states where the popular vote was 50..5 to 49.5, and the “majority” claimed that the “people had spoken”. There needs to be term limits. Issues have become items of short-life. A larger Congress of members of both sides [where the minority and majority are represented, needs to be in place. The ‘districts drawn on maps’ has not worked. Small population states have been ignored, except for the need when voter fraud has allowed districts to be turned from one party to another. Changing to both sides to be represented would eliminate voter fraud to determine the ‘majority’ in a district.
  2. Term limits is indeed strongly needed; having percentage representation eliminates the majority rule in all districts and allows greater representation of ALL people.
  3. The U.S. has forgotten that their is a definite separation of powers in the tri-une government we have. The executive branch is supposed to only carry out the laws made by the Congress, or as interpreted by the courts.
  4. Government collection of tax money on the Federal level has become insane. There is no need for the feds to ‘return’ money from the states. The people of each state should be able to direct the public works programs needed in their states. The only time Fed money is needed is in times of natural disasters.
  5. There has always been religion allowed to be in the governing of the people, but no government involvement in religion. If a state wants school prayer, that is perfectly correct. If a group dislikes that, let them form their own opinions and keep it to themselves, when the majority speaks. Disallowing open prayer because a few dislike it, is constitutionally wrong.
A row of supercomputers running simulations of quantum cryptography algorithms to test their efficiency and effectiveness
President Joe Biden, son Hunter Biden and sister Valerie Biden walk across the South Lawn of The White House on July 28, 2024 in Washington, DC. President Biden is returning from a weekend trip to Camp David. (Photo by Michael A. McCoy/Getty Images)
President-elect Donald Trump shakes hands with Dana White during the UFC 309 event at Madison Square Garden on November 16, 2024 in New York City.

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