Chaos Theory and Missing US Leadership

In physics and math, chaos theory is how we unpack what looks random, get to initial causes, examine underlying patterns, connections, feedback loops, how one decision affects others, how presence or absence makes a difference. The theory also works, to a degree, in global stability. Leadership matters.

You may have heard of the “butterfly effect,” a whimsical notion that one butterfly’s flutter could prevent or create chaos somewhere else, that the whole world tied together in some complex way. In math, specifically in deterministic non-linear systems, this is true.

Central to the butterfly effect and chaos theory, including stopping a chaotic event, is the idea that things could be non-randomly (or deterministically) linked and that much of what happens is “non-linear,” that is, some small input creates a major change in output.

In human behavior, we see shadows of the principle, unlikely connections – often unmeasurable – which nevertheless do affect events in a faraway time or place.

In historical terms, would the French Revolution have happened without ours, World War II without World War I, today’ war in the Middle East without prior conflicts? Probably not.

If we can look back and find links, why not look ahead and game them, use chaos theory to our advantage, reverse-engineer peace from models of a “deterministic non-linear system”?

Of course, we know this is an overapplication of math or we would all be defining the future we want and getting the right butterfly flutters now. That said, there is merit in cross-application for stability.

What we should appreciate – but many do not – is that, even if life is not game theory, actions taken or untaken do absolutely affect the future, some enormously, some slightly, many somewhat.

We know knock-on relationships exist everywhere, even if we live in world of innumerable, unmeasurable variables. Just knowing how interrelated we are, nations are, helps to restore peace.

Thus, a good leader would immediately realize that the United States, China, Russia, Europe, and key Middle East players are involved in a multilevel chess game, at once complex, hopeful, and deadly.

Decisions we make now, their exact proportionality, measured nature, and rightness, will affect many future events. It is worth understanding as many of these contingencies as possible, to avoid chaos.

What do I mean? How about this. Last week, NATO member Turkey broke with US policy by saying Hamas, which precipitated a terrorist attack on Israel and is booth political and militant, is somehow “not a terror group.” This looks bizarre, a sudden fissure in NATO, a jarring statement.

Why did that happen? Does Turkey’s Muslim President Erdogan believe that? Does he want to curry favor with non-terrorist Palestinians, displace Egypt, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia as peace broker? Get closer to Russia for mid-winter energy, hedge his bets with a rising China, prevent terror at home?

Are there other variables afoot? Is Turkey concerned that pro-Kurdish members of the US Congress will accuse Erdogan of being a terrorist, since he just bombed Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) bases in Iraq?

Does America’s approval turn on his approval of us, does our approval of him matter, is he trying to look radical now to shift, concede or soften later?

Is Turkey’s sudden change of heart on admitting Sweden to NATO, leaving Hungary the long holdout, a way of Erdogan deflecting from that rash statement about Hamas – which jarred much of NATO?

Is Turkey playing both sides, giving NATO support for Sweden’s admission (as he did for Finland last year) and deflecting to Hungary, while preserving domestic standing with a 99 percent Muslim population?

If we are counting variables, did Turkey suddenly agree to Sweden’s admission to NATO also to get Biden’s State Department to ask Congress to “ok” sale of F-16s to Turkey – which he wants right now?

How, in turn, would ramping up Turkey’s airpower affect Europe, Mideast, Israel-Hamas war’s expansion?

Does Turkey want to avoid, or rather prepare for, being drawn into the war? If drawn in, how would this conflicted NATO member act? Join the US in supporting Israel, broker peace, use the conflict to hit Kurdish separatists in Syria, Iraq, internally?

While the world is complex, such questions are worth asking. This is just one ally. Add to the equation dozens of “hub and spoke” relationships, and you get a messy, multilateral entanglement, Gordian Knot.

Too much? No. The world is complex but we can hardly give up or cede leadership to China, Russia, Iran, Turkey or anyone else.  If hard to understand, the world needs us – our brains, heart, energy, history.

If we believe in our moral and physical power, and in global peace, even knowing the variables are countless, we need to ask tough questions of ourselves and others, act wisely, call the shots.

Even knowing we cannot reverse-engineer events to a butterfly flutter, prevent sectarian passion, or expect math to fix our chaotic human world, we must still try, have faith in our power to move the dial, assert real leadership, embrace “the good fight,” advance global peace, never cease.

Chaos theory has limits, as does American leadership. That does not mean we do not use it, learn from it, that it is not relevant. It is relevant. In some situations, leadership turns the dial. We have to try.

Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.