Did Putin Kill Prigozhin?

Oddly aligned with history is the sudden death of Putin’s internal opponent, onetime-friend-turned-mutineer, leader of the mercenary “Wagner Group” so active in Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Reporting says he died in an accidental air crash… but bad actors walk abroad.

Questions surrounding the event recall another crash 60 years ago. In July 1943, Poland’s Prime Minister in exile, Wladyslaw Sikorski, and seven others left Gibraltar after reviewing troops and promptly crashed, killing all but the pilot.

At the time, Poland’s relationship with the Soviet Union was strained, even as Poland fought Nazi Germany. Sikorski was a man of strong influence and views, a promising leader.

Oddly, the Soviets had a plane parked on the Gibraltar airstrip that day, accompanied by a high-ranking Soviet leader and operatives, including a British double agent (discovered later).

That crash, which ended the life and influence of a rising Polish leader, remains a matter of considerable conjecture since it eliminated an historical figure who would have played a major role in WWII and the follow-on Cold War, outlines of which were already emerging.

Similarly, while public reports had Putin and Prigozhin at an uneasy peace, one is hard-pressed to believe that. Putin, notoriously thin-skinned, suffered a blow to his prestige with Prigozhin’s “march on Moscow.” While aborted, it ended any idea of unity, let alone inevitable victory.

All this must have sat poorly with Putin. Having made an adversary of Prigozhin, who was vocal, ruthless, and knew Putin’s weaknesses, must have seemed to Putin like opening another front.

Questions surrounding the crash, while partially answered, are not fully so. Caught on film, we know a plane did crash; it fell like a brick after what sounded like midair explosions.

We know the plane was a private Embraer, type seldom to crash, tail numbers Prigozhin’s plane.

What else? We know Prigozhin was listed on the manifest, if accurate. We know ten were aboard, and eight bodies were recovered, if that data is accurate.

We know Prigozhin must have known Putin was unforgiving, so was constantly on guard. We know, from Western sources, that no missile hit the plane, so whatever happened was internal.

We also have what lawyers call demeanor evidence. Despite no identification of Prigozhin’s body, Russian investigators were instantly on the scene, Putin offering a glowing public memoriam.

So, did Prigozhin die in the crash? Was he on that plane? Did he cross Putin and pay with his life? Did Putin take a pound of flesh, as they say, for Prigozhin’s public mutiny?

Was Prigozhin’s continued presence, hard-to-suppress voice, potential for future military challenges, and reservoir of embarrassing knowledge about Putin too much?

We know 10 Putin critics died violent deaths – and he jailed his leading political opponent.

But – as in the plane crash that occurred 60 years ago, removing the Polish Prime Minister from the scene – there is a lot that remains unknown and may never be known.

In that case, while the Soviets were suspected of sabotage, nothing was proved. Reports surfaced later that some on the manifest, including the Prime Minister’s daughter, were later seen alive.

Could Prigozhin have staged his own death to escape being further hunted by Putin? Certainly, Poland’s wartime Prime Minister did not do that. Could Prigozhin and Putin have reached some clandestine accord that would make him officially dead yet let him live? Not likely.

In Putin’s world, where war is justified by ancient lines, rites, and titles, pursued with resolve, as recruitment, retention, and battlefield victories falter, and China becomes his lifeline; where losing a non-existential war is sold at home as winning another “Great War,” who can say?

What we do know is that this is another odd turn, if not unpredictable, still solemn, sobering – another indication that Russia’s power structure is unstable, that Putin may feel increasingly cornered, insecure, and determined to deter challengers and settle scores.

This death – even without further facts – will send a shiver through those who oppose Putin within his military, his intelligence structure, and, more broadly, in Russian politics.

Hard to say is whether this event will do more than erode – if not erase – the Wagner Group’s influence in the war or have any influence on average Russians, still 80 percent behind Putin.

Still, like the global shiver created by the Polish Prime Minister’s suspicious death 60 years ago, this death reminds us we live in a world of unremitting intrigue, not unlike WWII and the Cold War, where we often know less than we think, need to be vigilant, and bad actors walk abroad.

Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.