Will Harris Cost Democrats the White House? | Trafalgar Group’s Polling Predictions

Full Episode Transcript:

Robert Cahaly: Kamala coming on the ticket has brought back enthusiasm on the Democrat side. The Republicans already had it. for many people, on the Republican side, they’ll hear it all the time, voting is the only way to scratch an itch they’ve had for eight years. they’ve got to vote. JD Vance is boogeyman, if you will.

And all of a sudden, that’s not the guy they saw on stage. they didn’t see an angry person. They didn’t see, some person that hates women and all that kind of stuff. They saw a different fan. Trump’s trying to win. He doesn’t, he can’t. We’re in Pennsylvania by a point. He’s got to be up by two and a half to actually get it.

Rebecca Weber: Hello, everyone. I’m Rebecca Weber and you’re watching Better for America, sponsored by AMAC, the Association of Mature American Citizens. Folks, I’m thrilled to introduce. My next guest, his name is Robert Cahally. He is the chief pollster at the Trafalgar Group, and he is one of the most accurate and innovative pollsters in the country.

Robert has been instrumental in revolutionizing polling methods and really delivering insights that challenge conventional wisdom. His expertise in political polling and voter behavior has earned him national recognition. Making him a really trusted voice in analyzing elections and public opinion. I’m thrilled to have you here with me, Robert.

Rebecca Weber: Thank you so much for joining me.

Robert Cahaly: It’s always a pleasure. And you guys do such great work and, very informative once you put information out there, people need to hear it.

Rebecca Weber: that’s great to hear from you because you really have an incredible perspective on things. and, our members are paying attention.

They’re paying attention. They’re looking at the polls. I guess my first question for you, Robert, is, is it true that Republicans are really showing serious registration and early mail in ballot advantages that we have never really seen before? Is that happening? That’s what I’m hearing.

Robert Cahaly: There’s a lot of truth to that.

And part of it is the enthusiasm gap. The enthusiasm gap has really changed a lot since where the rest was with Biden. In some places, like for example, Georgia, it got much tighter with the Democrats having a slight advantage on enthusiasm, but as some of the Rust Belt states, Harris didn’t move up quite as much and there is a great enthusiasm of Republicans and more importantly, there have been some people who have been instrumental on the ground to make all this happen.

Registering people and doing the kind of work the Democrats traditionally do, but not necessarily even paid for by the party, but just people getting folks registered and moving those numbers. But the enthusiasm is having a lot to do with it. Those blue collar Midwestern voters are actually not as keen on Kamala as they were in 2020 on Biden.

Rebecca Weber: It certainly seems that way. And that’s what I’m hearing and just traveling across the United States and seeing, there’s so much Trump then support on display, not seeing the same kind of display of, Harris waltz. it’s very interesting. I want to talk a month ago. We had the presidential debate.

It was the first debate, I believe the only debate that we’ll see. do you think that had a long lasting impact on how people are going to turn out and who they’ll vote for?

Robert Cahaly: I really don’t. We did a poll during that debate, an instant poll, and what we came across with was, I think it was 55 percent thought that she won.

43 percent thought that Trump won. I think there were 2 percent who thought it was a draw. But what was most important is, at the beginning of the debate, they were each at 47%. And this was across battleground states only. At the end of the debate, they were both at 48%. So we, there was, there’s, and people are like, how could this be?

And I’m like, there are a lot of people who think she won the debate who are still voting for Trump. That’s how it can be. it’s one of those things where people are not that monolithic. They can have an opinion that’s different than who they’re supporting. But what Trump did accomplish, and he missed a lot of opportunities in that debate, put her on the defensive.

But what he did accomplish is this idea, which I think Vance pushed again. All these things Kamala says, if she really believed all this, he would have been doing it. Like, why haven’t you done it? When he said, why don’t you just go down to Washington right now, wake Joe up, and do this? So that message is coming through, voters are getting this, Kamala’s telling me what I want to hear, but is it what she really believes?

That message is coming through.

Rebecca Weber: Yeah, coming through loud and clear. And just a few days ago we saw the vice president presidential debate. I thought Vance did an incredible job. he was steady, calm, he was very articulate, he was relatable. I thought he was, very gentlemanly patient, maybe he could have taken more opportunity to be a little bit tougher, to be a little harder, but I think, and this is just my opinion as an American citizen, that People welcome that, that quality that Vance has, and that is, he can hold himself, he’s steady, he’s calm, and he seems to be very much a gentleman.

Do you think that the vice presidential, debate might have impact? Or typically, is it true that, The VP debates don’t really have tremendous impact.

Robert Cahaly: they can and they can’t. one of the things that happened in this debate was probably most important for J. D. Vance is he humanized himself.

For so many people, J. D. Vance is a meme, a boogeyman, if you will. And all of a sudden, That’s not the guy they saw on stage. They didn’t, see an angry person. They didn’t see, some person that hates women and all that kind of stuff that’s been put out there. They saw a different Vance. he started off extremely articulate on the question about, the disaster with the hurricane to go right to, if you really cared about it, you would own short of this and just boom to say, yes.

If you really care about this issue, and it’s not just about socialism, here are the steps you would take, and you haven’t taken those steps. And that’s an argument that I’ve been waiting to see some conservatives make, that Western Europe and America are the most efficient places with the least amount of pollution, and every time you build something somewhere else, you’re contributing to pollution instead of making it less.

And that’s an environmental argument that people on the conservative side can win, and I think he articulated that well, even on the abortion, I thought the way he said, Decided by the state, my state didn’t vote the way I wanted them to, but that’s The way it’s supposed to be, like he respected that they made a decision that wasn’t what he wanted, but that was the way they did it and it was the way it should be.

I thought he showed real maturity there.

Rebecca Weber: I’m with you there all the way, Robert. I want to pick your brain a little bit about, you really, your turnout models too. I was speaking with another guest Who said she said, if just 1 percent more Republicans vote in 2024 presidential election in those red states, red counties, just 1 percent more, Donald Trump will win it.

But how do we know who’s going to vote this time around? Do you have any turnout models that speak to maybe this enthusiasm and the number of people that will in fact vote early vote on Election Day?

Robert Cahaly: Yeah, I think that this election is setting up to be an even larger turnout than the massive turnout of 2020.

I think this is distinctly possible because Kamala coming on the ticket has brought back enthusiasm on the Democrat side. The Republicans already had it. for many people, on the Republican side, they’ll hear it all the time. Voting is the only way to scratch an itch they’ve had for eight years.

They gotta vote. it drives them crazy. They can’t wait to vote. They, it’s like they want to vote and put a, a flag on the ground and declare victory because they’re just, they’re angry and they want to see a change and so I think that you’re going to have very big turnout. we’re looking at the impact of the newly registers, people that have registered since the 2022 election, looking at the patterns of what happened in 22, I think a lot of those will be back and it’s just, all these models need to include this.

But models can only go so far. We can, as I always say, we can only predict people. We can’t predict ballots. And in places with voter ID, I can tell you a lot better than in places that are all mail in without voter ID. That’s a lot harder to poll for obvious reasons.

Rebecca Weber: you said in 2020 that Trump could win, Pennsylvania, but he would lose it, due to fraud if he didn’t win by a really wide margin now.

I saw that in 2016

Robert Cahaly: too.

Rebecca Weber: And 2016, that’s right. So do you feel that’s still the case considering that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court just ruled that mail in ballots must be postmarked before election night, which is really wise. that should be, Across all states, we shouldn’t be voting after election day.

Robert Cahaly: it should be, but there’s still a lot of things that happen in the city of Philadelphia that are just, and there’s been thousands of, not thousands, have been hundreds of articles written about this. I’m not going to rehash it. Anybody who doesn’t think there’s problems in the elections in Philadelphia has clearly never been there and never seen the things that happen with their voter court and everything else they have.

so there’s a lot that goes on. So I do believe that the best way for, if Trump’s trying to win, he doesn’t, he can’t win a Pennsylvania by a point. He’s got to be up by two and a half to actually get it with what could, and may or may not happen. The other thing is the Democrats are much, much better. At ground game organization to get out the vote, whereas Republicans talk about sending dozens of people, Democrats send hundreds of people.

I remember the Georgia Republican, and Democrat runoff of 2021. They put a thousand people on the ground here in Georgia, a thousand stackers.

Rebecca Weber: Wow.

Robert Cahaly: And it was amazing. And they do that kind of work. you always talk about outkicking your coverage. the Democrats can outdo the polls by a point to a point and a half simply with their get out the vote effort.

Rebecca Weber: So then what margin does Trump need really to win, to make this thing too big to rig?

Robert Cahaly: that’s your expression, not mine, obviously, but no, I would tell you he needs one because it’s only about two and a half. He needs to win, Arizona by a point and a half, and probably a point in Michigan, and maybe a point and a half in Georgia, and around a point in, Wisconsin.

And I’ve learned the hard way, I’m not going to predict anything about Nevada. But North Carolina, on the other hand, I know a lot about North Carolina elections, and I just don’t think there’s any shenanigans. I think it’ll be what it is.

Rebecca Weber: Interesting. and Robert, what I found really fascinating was that you had developed this shy Trump voter theory, which.

it really says, it speaks to, tapping into people who won’t say out loud or up front that they will vote for their candidate, but they will say, Oh, it’s, I’m pretty sure my neighbor will. Tell us a little bit about that. And do you see, that, polls are, people are reluctant to sometimes tell the truth because they, want to keep their ballot secret.

Robert Cahaly: it’s interesting. It’s completely moved in the reasoning. In 2016, it was this idea of, Hillary saying it was a basket of deplorables, and you had people that were just, the kind of folks who just didn’t want to deal with All the nonsense from their, friends know when they were going to vote for Trump.

they might’ve been voting for Trump. They wouldn’t put a yard sign in the yard. They just didn’t want to deal with it. And so it was they were shy. They just wanted to do it and, cast their vote alone. And if we talk about a lot of the husbands did not want to tell their wives they’re voting for Trump.

Now, in 2020, it wasn’t quite as much of that, because it was very much out. and Trump was an incumbent, but now it’s changed because, with all the stories about, people who are praying on a street corner for an abortion clinic, have, the feds come in their house with guns drawn and this idea that the Department of Justice may be weaponized against conservatives and all of the, canceling.

People don’t want their name on a list. They are very concerned. Who are you? What are you doing with this information? We get that a lot. So yeah, it’s like one they were shot and now they’re a little scared They’re a little scared because they don’t know what’s going to happen I mean in the same way that gun owners will tell you they don’t believe in gun registration because they don’t want there to exist A list of who and where all the guns are it’s very much the same feeling No, they don’t you know people they don’t know what’s going to happen with that we make a point having our website guarantee anonymity when we pull the voter list The first thing we do is delete all the names And we start from there.

We don’t know the names. You can hack our site. You can’t get the names because they’re gone. And not that I’m fighting about a heck of a site. I’m just saying they did that in 2020, but I’m just saying it’s important that you protect people’s identity. Yes. and that you honor that. And, we try to have a reputation for doing that.

A lot of times people don’t know what this real poll or just somebody trying to make a list of

Rebecca Weber: Yeah, it’s interesting my mother’s perspective on this whole, who’s going to win in Trump, Vance, and Harris, Waltz. She’s looking at the vice president. She’s saying, you know what, Trump might not be the perfect candidate, but I really like Vance, and after all, Trump’s only got four years.

Do you think that’s, Playing into people’s minds because there are a lot of people who think Trump, they just don’t like his delivery, his style. they think he’s rough around the edges, maybe offensive. but as we saw in Vance, he really is very Reagan esque. do you think that is something in in the recesses of, the voter’s mind?

Robert Cahaly: Yeah, I think you’ve got some of that. The thing about Trump is your opinions are baked in. Yeah. There’s not anything new that people are learning about Trump. The reason that Kamala is having trouble now is she started as a clean slate. And so when you’re a clean slate, you really can only go down.

it’s not like they can find a bunch of things about you and go, Oh, really? I really like her more. any person you start digging in their life and everything they’ve ever said, especially somebody with like her, that’s got so much videotape of her saying so many things that are quite controversial.

When that comes out. But Vance offers like a contrast. It’s like a, a, to paraphrase George W., George H. W., a kinder, gentler America first. And it is that, I still believe in the same thing, I’m just going to be a little more cordial, but not to, the point of deference. I’m going to make my point and I’m going to make it hard, but I’m going to make it in a calm manner and execute.

it’s, hard. Some people always want to judge Trump. you have to put your mind to what this guy has been through. I just, I can’t imagine. I can’t imagine everything you went through in 2020. I can’t imagine being shot at twice. So I’m not going to judge how a guy like that acts.

When he’s been through all that and I can understand his need to lash out at those people because he’s that angry and he’s had the system weaponized against him and just, It’s really hard to believe one person is bearing all this.

Rebecca Weber: Yeah, really good analysis there. I’m going to give you the final thoughts, Robert.

but my final question for you here is, prediction. November 3rd, November 4th, November 5th. Do you think we’ll know quickly, who the winner is? And how do you think it’s going to shake out?

Robert Cahaly: a week and a half ago, I would have told you I thought it was leaning toward Commonwealth. What we saw, and we saw it the last night of our Georgia polling, and Matt Towery, who does, works with Insider Advantage, he and I do a podcast together every week, check it out, Polling Plus, but we both noticed it when he was doing Pennsylvania and I was doing Georgia about two weeks ago, and there was a tick up the day that Sunday when the word came out that there was another attempt on Trump’s life.

And since then, we’ve seen an uptick for Trump and, I’m beginning to see some separation, in places like Pennsylvania. I think that he may be on the way. for the first time, RCP is now positive, for Trump on Pennsylvania. It hadn’t been like that in a while. I feel like he’s moving in the right direction.

And I will say this, we’ve been measuring some of these possible hidden to shy voters. I think there’s a significant amount out there. So at this point, I will say as of today, I will tell you, I think that, I think it’s likely Trump and it is quite possible that we will know on election night, because even the states that have to count might not matter.

there’s a possibility of there being a lot of hidden votes. I don’t know for sure, but I tell you, I think in the end, Trump will probably tweak it out as of now, but it may very well be if the Hidden Vote is there, we think it could be. And if other things notwithstanding, I think we may very well know election night.

Rebecca Weber: that would be refreshing. It’s exactly how it ought to be. Robert Cahaley, thank you so much for joining me. This is always really a joy to speak with you, to hear your side of things, how you’re, Coming up with these incredibly accurate, innovative practices. Thank you so much, Robert, for all that you’re doing.

Robert Cahaly: Thank you. I enjoy doing it.

Rebecca Weber: we love having you here, so we’ll have to have you back with us again real soon. And to everyone out there listening, be sure to join or renew your membership with AMAC. There is strength in numbers. The more members we have, the more work we can get done in Washington. So be sure to tell friends and family all about AMAC.

We’re doing a lot of work on the grassroots level to join AMAC, learn how you can get involved. Thank you for joining me. God bless you. Have a great day. Everyone.

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