Although the midterms are still six months away, attention is already turning toward the 2028 presidential election and what is sure to be a messy Democrat primary.
As things stand today, former Vice President Kamala Harris is leading the pack in most 2028 polling averages, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom and former Biden Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. But none of those candidates has a commanding lead, and each has significant vulnerabilities that could be their undoing once an actual primary gets underway.
Harris ran one of the most disastrous presidential campaigns in history, blowing through more than a billion dollars in 107 days. Newsom’s home state has become the laughing stock of the country under his watch, and he has already committed a number of embarrassing blunders as he tries to boost his national profile. Buttigieg has a solid base of support but is massively unpopular with black voters, a key Democrat primary constituency.
That could leave a lane open for another lesser-discussed candidate to swoop in and seize the Democrat mantle. If there is indeed a dark horse preparing for an unexpected run to the nomination, here are the five most likely candidates.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Since she burst onto the scene in 2018, AOC has been synonymous with far-left progressivism and Bernie Sanders’ brand of so-called “democratic socialism.” She has frequently appeared with Sanders on the rally stage, endearing herself to his loyal followers who nearly helped him lead a successful insurgent presidential bid in 2016 and 2020. At 84 years old, Sanders is unlikely to run again, and Cortez is his natural successor.
Adding to the intrigue, reports have surfaced in recent months that Cortez has quietly worked behind the scenes to soften her image as a bomb-thrower and cultivate a relationship with less radical members of her party.
Cortez would have a lot of work to do to convince Democrat power brokers and donors that she can win outside of deep blue New York. She is strongly disliked by non-progressives and would certainly animate the Republican base to turn out and vote against her. But she is a prolific fundraiser and comes into the second quarter of 2026 with nearly $15 million in cash on hand – one of the largest sums of any member of Congress. To Democrat primary voters clamoring for younger voices to take the lead in the party, AOC could be an attractive option.
Still, Cortez could decide that she’d rather challenge Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer when he is up for re-election in 2028. Cortez has been a constant critic of Schumer and is very popular in New York City. There, her progressive track record is a strength, not a weakness.
Sen. Mark Kelly
In February, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly said he would “seriously consider” a presidential run in 2028. As of mid-April, he was still “undecided.” But his fundraising activity and constant sparring with President Donald Trump seem to indicate that he is leaning toward running.
Prior to joining the Senate, Kelly was an astronaut and naval officer. Although he ran as a pragmatic moderate, he has lurched to the left in recent years, voting in lockstep with the most radical members of his caucus. Last year, Kelly notably appeared in a video suggesting that military personnel should defy orders that they believe are illegal – an apparent attempt to undermine President Trump’s constitutional authority as commander-in-chief of the military.
Coming into April, Kelly had an eye-popping $22.3 million cash on hand. If he does indeed decide to run, that’s a healthy war chest to start off.
Sen. Cory Booker
Sitting right behind Kelly in the cash on hand contest is New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, with $21.9 million. Booker was part of a crowded Democrat presidential primary field in 2020 and participated in five debates before suspending his campaign and endorsing Joe Biden.
Like most of the potential 2028 contenders, Booker has built his reputation in the Senate around being an anti-Trump firebrand. In 2018, he proudly identified as part of the so-called “hell no” caucus, voting against all of Trump’s nominees simply because they were Trump’s nominees. Notably, earlier this year, Booker introduced a proposal to effectively eliminate federal income taxes on the first $75,000 of income for married couples – a bill that isn’t likely to go anywhere in the Senate but is exactly the sort of messaging opportunity that a presidential hopeful would pursue.
However, Booker has also shown that he is prone to some embarrassing and tone-deaf moments that have a tendency to sink presidential campaigns. During the contentious confirmation hearing for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, Booker bizarrely compared himself to Spartacus, intentionally defying Senate rules to release confidential documents. Kavanaugh was ultimately confirmed anyway, and Booker was mocked online. In another cringeworthy display of self-important delusion, Booker compared Justice Ketanji Brown-Jackson to Harriet Tubman and called her his “North Star.”
Booker clearly wants the spotlight, and there is no bigger spotlight in politics than the President of the United States. But history shows that politicians who look like they want it too badly often alienate voters and end up humiliating themselves. It isn’t clear that Booker can deflate his ego enough to be relatable to voters.
Gov. Josh Shapiro
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was rumored to be a top contender to be Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate in 2024. But speculation swirled that Harris and her advisors were concerned that his Jewish faith might alienate anti-Israel voters. (Shapiro himself has even alleged that Harris’s team asked him if he was an “agent of the Israeli government.”)
The Democrat Party’s anti-Semitic streak would likely still be a major problem for Shapiro to overcome in a potential 2028 bid, but he nonetheless could be an attractive candidate if Democrats are looking for someone perceived as a “moderate.” Shapiro’s governing record is hardly centrist, but he does have a strong job approval rating and managed to win Pennsylvania – a state many Democrats view as critical in national elections. Trump walloped Democrats in the Rust Belt in 2024, and they need to retake this ground to win back the White House.
Former Mayor Rahm Emanuel
Former Obama Chief of Staff and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel isn’t on many peoples’ radar – but he sure is acting like he’s interested in running for something. He recently told Axios that he wants to “dominate” the “renewal” wing of the Democrat Party and challenge figures like Gavin Newsom. While most Democrats are making their campaigns about opposing President Trump, Emanuel is betting that a future-focused lane will help him stick out in a crowded primary field. Obama strategist David Axelrod told Axios that he believes Emanuel is “very serious and is on a year-end timetable for a go, no-go decision.”
Emanuel’s relatively low national profile would make a presidential run difficult – but as he would be the first to tell you, at this point in the 2008 cycle, Barack Obama was just an obscure first-term Senator. Another Democrat candidate could burst forth from outside this list and storm to the nomination – or Harris and Newsom could suck up all the oxygen and quickly make it a two-way race. But if an outsider candidate does make a serious run, it will likely be one of these prospective candidates.
Shane Harris is the Editor-in-Chief of AMAC Newsline. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.
