The Latin phrase “Quo Vadis” (where are you going?) was made famous in the New Testament, and later became the title of a well-known Polish novel, and still later the title of a Hollywood movie. The Latin phrase “Cum Vadis Abire, Iosephus” is much more secular, and is the question now being asked throughout the U.S. by many Democrats following President Joe Biden’s performance in his presidential debate with former Republican President Donald Trump.
The answer to the original biblical question of where was “to Rome’.
But the secular question above of when now has five possible answers.
The first is, “Before the DNC convention by voluntary withdrawal from renomination.” The second is, “Any time, by the cabinet invoking the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution” (making Kamala Harris acting president). The third is, “on January 20, 2025, after losing re-election.” The fourth is, “after January 20, 2025, by the cabinet invoking the 25th Amendment should he be re-elected.” The fifth is, “January 20, 2029.”
As matters stand now, the latter four are unlikely, particularly scenarios two and four and especially the final date.
In spite of their dislike of him and his administration’s policies, many Republicans are not eager to push Biden out the door because they feel a Joe Biden-Kamala Harris ticket will produce a landslide win for their nominee plus control of the House and Senate.
As with so much in this political campaign cycle, the nation is in uncharted political territory.
Mr. Biden already has more than enough committed delegates to be renominated at his party’s national convention in Chicago in August. The primary season is over, and the party establishment decreed that no one should oppose Mr. Biden despite his long-standing low favorability polls that had gotten worse and worse. It would take an historically and psychologically extraordinary effort to deny him the nomination if he doesn’t go voluntarily.
The only real precedent for what Democrats face now was in 1844 when former President Martin Van Buren had a majority of delegates to the Democratic convention but was opposed by pro-slavery Democrats who voted that a two-thirds majority was required for nomination. Van Buren could not get two-thirds and was therefore blocked, and with former President Andrew Jackson maneuvering behind the scenes, slave-owning James Knox Polk was nominated and then won the presidency over Whig nominee Henry Clay. (Had Van Buren won the nomination and the presidency, he would have been the first president elected to non-consecutive terms.)
Should Mr. Biden refuse to go voluntarily now, he would likely be the head of the Democratic ticket in November. Down-ballot Democrat candidates for local, state and national office would likely be affected by the presidential race, which could then result in a Republican landslide. Biden’s refusal to withdraw would make it very difficult for his party to name a replacement at the convention, and even more difficult after the convention in mid-August.
Obama political advisor David Axelrod has warned Republicans that if Mr. Biden withdraws, his replacement could do well against Mr. Trump, but all current polling shows that the frequently named substitutes, i.e. Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, former First Lady Michelle Obama, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, do no better or worse than Mr. Biden. It is unknown how Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro or Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo would do.
With much of the Democratic establishment now (but very belatedly) calling for Joe Biden to stand down, the next few weeks are going to be very curious. First Lady Jill Biden is being called on to persuade her husband to retire, but she is usually believed to be one of his strongest supporters. Former President Obama has repeated his support for Biden despite the debate fiasco.
One Democrat institution, however, has deserted him — the establishment media. A key factor in Biden’s narrow 2020 victory, many of these large print and broadcast venues seem to be falling all over themselves in calling for him to stand down immediately. Their seeming panic and desperation would be heightened if new polls show the Biden/Harris ticket falling further in the post-debate environment.
The next few weeks are going to be very instructive indeed.
Barry Casselman is a writer for AMAC Newsline.
