In Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel The Sun Also Rises, one man asks another how he went bankrupt. “Two ways,” the first man replies. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
Hemingway’s famous quote gave rise to what would become known as the “Hemingway Law of Motion,” or the notion that changes, whether in the economy, business, or politics, happen slowly, and then all at once. Changes may be gradual, even imperceptible at first, but the avalanche ensues once a tipping point is reached.
This phenomenon may befall the Democratic Party now in the “blue wall” states of the Upper Midwest—the so-called “Rust Belt.” Once a stronghold of Democratic electoral power, Trump’s 2024 victory in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—and his unexpectedly strong showing in Minnesota—may have been the first sign of a landslide realignment toward the GOP in this region of the country.
The numbers in the Rust Belt since the turn of the century paint a concerning picture for Democrats. From 2000 to 2012, Democrats averaged 52 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, 53.5 percent in Michigan, 51.6 percent in Wisconsin, and 51.5 percent in Minnesota. Since 2012, those numbers are 48.7 percent in Pennsylvania, 48.7 percent in Michigan, 48.3 percent in Wisconsin, and 50 percent in Minnesota.
For Republicans, it’s the exact opposite story. Between 2000 and 2012, GOP presidential candidates averaged 46.4 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, 44.9 percent in Michigan, 46.3 percent in Wisconsin, and 45.5 percent in Minnesota. Since 2012, those figures are 49.1 percent in Pennsylvania, 48.3 percent in Michigan, 48.6 percent in Wisconsin, and 45.7 percent in Minnesota.
In any given cycle, these changes have been small. But the trend is undeniable – on average since 2000, Democrats have lost ground to Republicans in all of the four blue wall states. Meanwhile, neighboring Iowa and Ohio, once considered swing states (Obama won both in 2008 and 2012) are now ruby red.
These small changes may have now led to a tipping point moment in the Rust Belt and perhaps the country at large. 2016 was the first major warning sign for Democrats, but the liberal establishment and media class were quick to write it off as a one-off, particularly since Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin with a plurality of the vote rather than an outright majority. But after a brief regression to the mean in 2020, Trump’s performance in the Rust Belt in 2024 provided more evidence that the region could be breaking hard for the GOP.
Without the blue wall states, Democrats’ number of plausible paths to victory nationwide becomes far smaller. It is true that Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, once considered more or less safe Republican states, have trended toward becoming swing states in recent cycles. But this development has been more than offset by Ohio and Florida becoming safe Republican states.
Take, for instance, this sample electoral map, which shows the results from 2024 without the other four swing states outside the Rust Belt (North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada). For at least the next few cycles, barring any major upsets in safe red or blue states, the Republican nominee would be on the doorstep of the presidency by holding Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The Democrat nominee, conversely, would need a sweep of all four remaining states to win the Electoral College vote.
Of course, this consequential shift in the Rust Belt did not occur in a vacuum; it is a direct result of Trump’s ascendancy to the top of the Republican Party.
Trump’s personal charisma and down-to-earth mentality undoubtedly helped him activate new voters and peel off old-school Democrats fed up with the party’s growing elitism and far-left direction on social issues. But what truly made Trump a potent political force is that he finally gave voice to the frustrations among the working class in these states that had been brewing for decades.
The Rust Belt is ground zero for the economic destruction wrought by the globalist policies of the 1990s and early 2000s. For years, blue-collar union workers in Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Milwaukee had been a core Democrat constituency. However as the political establishment in both parties allowed manufacturing jobs to be shipped overseas and failed to protect American industry, these workers became economically destitute and politically homeless.
Trump broke with Republican Party orthodoxy on trade and manufacturing, appealing directly to blue-collar workers with promises to bring back manufacturing jobs – a pledge he began to fulfill during his first term. At the same time, Trump has made inroads with black and minority voters similarly disillusioned with Democrats’ repeated failures and endless pandering.
Trump may have been uniquely suited to deliver a potentially fatal blow to the Democrats’ blue wall, but other Republican candidates can follow his blueprint for success. If Trump has indeed won the Rust Belt for the GOP, it is thanks to his America First agenda as much as his personal political ability – something other Republican candidates would do well to embrace.
Democrats may yet regain the momentum and rebuild the blue wall. But if a tipping point has indeed been reached, liberals may find their efforts too little, too late.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.
