After a few days of exuberance in the Democrats’ radical and populist base and an avalanche of hype from their sympathetic establishment media, the sober reality of Kamala Harris’s choice of vice presidential running mate has already begun to sink in.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a latecomer to the short list, was chosen and immediately promoted as a moderate who appeals to rural voters in the Midwest, as well as a former Army reservist and later high school teacher who, before being elected governor, served as a congressman in a purple outstate district.
He was not generally expected to be chosen over the early favorite, Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, or some others, including Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. Even Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, a red state, was initially thought more likely to be chosen than Walz.
As the date for a decision by Harris approached, and it seemed more and more likely that Shapiro was the frontrunner, the verbal knives came out to sabotage the Pennsylvania governor. Yes, it was generally conceded that he could ensure the Democrats would win his state’s key 19 electoral votes, but various progressive groups raised alarms, including teachers union leaders worried about Shapiro’s past support for school choice, and concerns from the party’s pro-Palestinian wing about Shapiro’s long-time support for Israel.
No matter that Shapiro’s support for Israel was virtually identical to all the other hopefuls, including Walz, and that he had denounced Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, as had the others. Because of his personal religious beliefs, it appears only Shapiro was singled out.
Because he was himself a potential future presidential candidate, others suggested Shapiro might overshadow Harris in the campaign.
Various reasons were also suggested why Mark Kelly and Andy Beshear should not be the choice, and in the end, it was only Walz who was left standing in the field of possible running mates.
Once chosen, the campaign to sell his candidacy began immediately: a native Midwesterner, long-time service in the Army reserve, high school teacher and coach, congressman, two-term governor of Minnesota, a popular moderate. But after only a day, the image began to crumble.
An allegation that he avoided his Army unit’s combat deployment to Iraq has appeared in several publications based on statements by his former Army unit colleagues.
Promoting himself as a moderate, Walz was elected to Congress in Minnesota’s purple First District. His tenure there was quite undistinguished. But as his voting record moved to the left, his re-election margin shrank.
Again promoting himself as a moderate, he won the governorship, but again moved to the left, this time sharply. During the pandemic period he imposed perhaps the toughest lockdown in the nation, even creating a formal way for citizens to snitch on their neighbors. During the notorious riots that broke out in Minneapolis, he failed to intervene to protect the affected neighborhoods. He initiated or supported radical legislative policies that increased regulations and real net taxes on small businesses that have caused many individuals and corporations to leave the state.
Despite the current hype that he will appeal to rural voters, Walz’s 2022 re-election numbers clearly indicate he has very little support in rural and small town Minnesota. Most of his vote came from radical progressive voters and teachers’ union members in the Twin Cities of St. Paul and Minneapolis.
The always shrewd and dependably fair Sean Trende has wondered aloud in Real Clear Politics why Tim Walz was chosen. Shapiro and other candidates had risks, he wrote, but they, especially Shapiro and Kelly, at least were likely to help win their states (where Trump currently has led in the polls). Minnesota, which earlier had seemed to be in play, is a long-time blue state, and when President Biden stepped down in favor of Harris, polls quickly showed the Democrats clearly ahead again.
Like many contemporary elected officials, Tim Walz is a political chameleon who is constantly adapting himself to current political and policy trends. He did this in Congress, and now as governor. This has made him popular with his party’s urban progressive base, but has created hardships for most other citizens.
He is, by all accounts, a likable retail politician, and touted as an example of “Minnesota Nice.” But as Newt Gingrich has pointed out, “Minnesota Nice is the facade behind which Governor Walz has been operating a program of Minnesota Mean.”
What does he bring to his party’s ticket in November?
Not Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes, which already seemed safely on the Democrats’ side. Not rural and small-town voters, or the votes of small businesspersons who found his policies hurt them. Not parents who feel his unquestioning support for teachers’ unions has led to the decline of public education.
But he does reinforce the voters on the progressive left who already support Kamala Harris, giving Republicans a strong theme with which to run against the Democrats and their Harris-Walz ticket.
Tim Walz might not matter if you believe, as many historians do, that the vice presidential nominee doesn’t make a difference in a presidential election. There is much empirical data to support this notion.
But if the election ahead, which is likely to be close, is decided against the Democrats by the number of electoral votes in Pennsylvania or Arizona, it won’t make Kamala Harris look like she made the right choice for her running mate.
