AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman
The now-chronic deterioration of President Joe Biden’s political standing and the voter disfavor with his administration’s policies appears to be taking a further toll on the Democratic Party’s prospects for the 2022 national midterm elections, now only eight months away.
The latest example seems to be Vermont, where recently the President Pro Tempore of the U.S. Senate, Patrick Leahy, 81, announced his retirement. Although this created an open seat in the November election, the initial reaction was that this was a safe Democratic seat, especially after Vermont’s lone House Member, Democrat Peter Welch, announced his candidacy to succeed Leahy.
But Christina Nolan, a former U.S. Attorney (2017-2021), has announced her bid for the GOP nomination and is a serious candidate to challenge Welch. Only 42, she was unanimously confirmed by the Senate to be U.S. Attorney for the District of Vermont in 2017.
As the representative for Vermont’s at-large House seat, Welch has run statewide and thus has high name recognition, but he is 74 and does not have prospects for gaining valuable seniority in a long senate career. Welch remains the clear favorite for now, but the impact of a strong opponent, and continued unpopularity of the President, could make for an upset in November.
Further complicating this senate race, and the one in neighboring New Hampshire, where Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan is vulnerable, is the curious trend of heavily blue New England states electing moderate Republicans for statewide offices.
Vermont (Phil Scott) and New Hampshire (Chris Sununu) each have Republican governors, as does Massachusetts (Charlie Baker) and as did Maine until 2019 (Paul LePage). Maine also has long-time GOP Senator Susan Collins. Leahy himself was first elected as a Republican.
New England Republicans differ from Republicans from Idaho or Mississippi on some hot button issues such as abortion, but the GOP may need them to win a majority and choose the senate leadership, thus providing a major barrier to President Joe Biden’s progressive legislative agenda.
A strong Republican showing in the Vermont senate race this fall could also have important implications for long-term political trends beyond 2022. While the northeast states usually vote Democratic in presidential elections, and did so in 2020 for Joe Biden, 2022 could mark the beginning of a shift. If so, Biden, or whoever the Democratic nominee is, could face trouble in New England in 2024 — not only because the president has lost popularity generally, but because of specific Biden policies on local issues — such as his restrictions on lobster fishing off the coast of Maine.
Biden’s extreme unfavorability is also putting wind in Republicans’ sails, making would-be longshot candidates into legitimate challengers. At the outset of the 2022 cycle, there was a widespread assessment that four races with an incumbent GOP Senator, including those in Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Florida, were toss-ups. Few observers would rate them as toss-ups today. Additionally, some incumbent GOP seats had the potential to be Democratic senate pick-ups, including Ohio and Missouri, but not in a “red wave” campaign year.
Should the red wave be a historic tidal wave, and should Mr. Biden’s numbers remain at current levels, there are several “safe Democratic” senate seats which might see upsets on election day. These include Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and New York, along with Vermont.
If New York as a GOP pick-up seems at first glance to be far-fetched, it should be remembered that New York has a multi-party ballot. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer could face an intraparty challenge from the likes of House “Squad” leader Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has in the past criticized Schumer for not being progressive enough. A Schumer challenger could be on enough ballots to divide the Democratic vote and enable a GOP nominee to win with a plurality. An unlikely scenario now, but it could happen in a red tidal wave.
In another, more normal mid-term cycle, some of the above speculation would be fantasy. But in a year with a border crisis, runaway inflation, Afghanistan, Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, controversial pandemic restrictions, and a president with favor only in the high 30s, anything seems possible.