Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo
While most of the attention will be on the contests for the U.S. House and Senate this November, there are also 36 gubernatorial races to watch – some of which could have a significant impact on everything from election integrity to the Second Amendment and immigration policy. Races for governor also historically produce a new class of rising political stars who could make a name on the national scene in the years ahead, as well as provide some early indicators of what to expect in 2028.
Here are the top races to watch with less than four months to go until Election Day.
Nevada
The closest statewide race in the country this year could come in the Silver State, yet this contest has remained largely off the national radar.
Former Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo secured the governor’s mansion for Republicans in 2022 following eight years of Democrat rule, winning by just over 15,000 votes. Now, Lombardo is facing down Democrat Attorney General Aaron Ford in a race that most analysts rate as a toss-up. With relatively few public polls, Lombardo holds a 0.5-point edge in the latest RealClearPolitics average – a statistical tie.
Democrats are leaning hard into anti-Trump messaging, hoping that frustrations over high gas prices will be enough to flip the state. But Lombardo has a slate of legislative victories to run on, including strengthened school discipline policies, a drop in violent crime, and lower taxes – all achieved despite a Democrat-controlled legislature.
Trump’s “No Tax on Tips” policy, signed into law as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill last year, is also particularly impactful in this service industry-heavy state.
Wisconsin
The Badger State won’t hold its primary election until August 11, and a crowded Democrat primary field makes this race one to watch.
Eight Democrats have filed to run to replace incumbent Democrat Tony Evers, who is retiring. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez won a recent straw poll, but at this point, it’s still anyone’s race.
On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany appears to be the prohibitive favorite.
Polymarket bettors heavily favor Wisconsin to remain in Democrat hands, but a TIPP poll from March shows a tight race between Tiffany and several of the top Democrat contenders.
Recent history suggests that anything could happen in November, giving both parties a strong incentive to invest in this race. In 2022, Evers cruised to re-election by more than 10 points, but Republican Ron Johnson still managed to win re-election to the U.S. Senate. Johnson defeated former Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, who is competing for the Democrat nomination for governor this year.
Michigan
Next door in Michigan, another tight race is unfolding with incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer term-limited.
In this case, however, it is Democrats who have a heavy favorite to win the August 4 primary – Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson.
Meanwhile, a closer contest is underway for the Republican nomination, with former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox facing off against U.S. Rep. John James, businessman Perry Johnson, and Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt. Polling has varied widely, with James leading by as much as 23 points in one poll earlier this spring, while Johnson led by three in a poll fielded June 10-14.
Whoever takes on Benson should have a real opportunity to flip the seat. While Michigan has long been a Democrat-leaning state, President Donald Trump won it in 2016 and 2024, seeming to indicate a rightward shift. This year’s gubernatorial election will be a good test of whether those results were Trump-specific or part of a broader trend toward the Republican Party.
Georgia
Georgia is the only state with a Republican governor listed as a true toss-up by most analysts in 2026. While Republicans believe that they are forging inroads in the Upper Midwest, Democrats are convinced that they are making gains in Georgia and North Carolina. This year will be perhaps the biggest test of that theory to date.
Democrats’ hopes rest with Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a strident progressive who carries some serious political baggage over her record leading the state’s largest city. During the primary campaign, one Democrat activist told Politico that “Republicans will eat her for lunch,” specifically over violent crime and her COVID-19 policies.
The task of capitalizing on those vulnerabilities will fall to the Republican nominee, Rick Jackson, a billionaire entrepreneur. Early polls show Bottoms with a double-digit lead, but those are mostly surveys sponsored by Democrat-aligned groups. Incumbent Republican Brian Kemp won by about eight points in 2022.
Maine
The Pine Tree State was expected to be an easy Democrat hold until a shocking slew of scandals engulfed Maine Democrats’ nominee for U.S. Senate, Graham Platner. Most recently, a woman publicly accused Platner of raping her, leading to several of Platner’s high-profile Democrat supporters to call on him to drop out of the race.
Whether Platner remains the nominee or not, the debacle may act as an electoral anchor on his fellow Democrats – including the party’s nominee for governor, former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree.
Pingree faces a worthy opponent in Republican nominee Robert Charles, a former Reagan White House staffer and Assistant Secretary of State. (Charles has also notably served as a national spokesman for AMAC and is a frequent contributor to AMAC Newsline.)
Democrats are still favored to hold this seat, but further breaking developments in the Platner scandal could change that calculus.
Arizona
Republicans are out for redemption in Arizona in 2026 after GOP nominee Kari Lake fell short by less than one percent against Democrat Katie Hobbs in 2022.
Four Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination – U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, entrepreneur Scott Neely, businessman Ken Miceli, and U.S. Rep. David Schweikert. Polling shows Biggs with a seemingly insurmountable lead heading into primary day on July 21. Hobbs will not face a Democrat challenger.
Arizona is another swing state that Trump won in 2024, and one that Republicans believe is trending their direction. Recent statewide races there have all been decided by razor-thin margins, and there is every reason to expect another close result this November. Hobbs leads in most polls, but it is still early, and the race will likely tighten in the fall.
Americans should especially pay attention to the results in Arizona as an indicator of what to expect from Hispanic voters moving forward. This demographic swung hard toward President Trump in 2024, but early polling suggests Hobbs has the edge over Biggs with Hispanics this year.
In 2028, Republicans are counting on eating into Democrats’ edge with Hispanics to remain competitive in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and other states with large Hispanic populations.
Every election night has its surprises, and it may well be that another governor’s seat up for grabs this year delivers an unexpected result. But these races are the most likely to produce the photo finishes on November 3 – and provide some valuable early insight about where the country is headed two years from now.
Shane Harris is the Editor-in-Chief of AMAC Newsline. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.
