The various intervals of so-called ceasefire in the Iran conflict were always a charade which served short-term interests, initially of both the Iranian regime and the United States. But the deaths of three U.S. troops over the weekend during an Iranian attack on an American base in Jordan were the final proof that this status quo is now untenable.
The bad guy in this conflict, the Islamic Republic of Iran, has realized the ceasefire intervals work against its interests and mostly serve the interests of President Trump and the U.S. military. The Iranian regime has accordingly resorted to constantly breaking the terms of the ceasefire memorandum of understanding, thus shattering any illusion of serious negotiations and ending this stop-and-go period of fragile ceasefires.
The divided and unclear power structure of the totalitarian Islamic Republic regime was forced into a lose-lose predicament by the ceasefires. With no U.S. air attacks when a ceasefire was in place, the factions within the regime went to war with each other. When the air attacks resumed, the factions united, but their ability to defend themselves and retaliate had been reduced to a minimum because their air force, navy, and air defense systems had been destroyed. All they had left were drones and missiles, and only a few launchers to fire them at their enemies.
Despite their tremendous military and infrastructure losses, the Islamic Republic had three cards to play: huge revenues from their oil and gas resources sold abroad; the ability to block maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz; and their security forces, which controlled virtually all the guns inside Iran and could enforce a certain level of police control over the population.
At this point, the U.S. has cut off the regime’s oil and gas revenues by stopping shipping to and from Iranian ports. The U.S. has also frozen Iranian funds deposited abroad and tried to send in arms to the local resistance via the Iraqi Kurds. The first two strategies worked almost immediately, but the arms shipments via the Iraqi Kurds were not delivered inside Iran.
As domestic economic conditions deteriorate further, and the general population cannot obtain even basic necessities like water, food, and utilities, a “Petrograd 1917” situation could soon develop, sending masses into the streets, even without the go-ahead signal from Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi or President Trump. (In March 1917, a similar situation in the Russian city of Petrograd – now St. Petersburg – with the population plagued by food shortages during World War I led to the Tsar’s abdication and set the stage for the October uprising that brought the Bolsheviks to power.)
Such desperation has already begun to occur now as many Iranians, facing starvation, no medicine or health care, and other extreme deprivations, are taking to the streets of Tehran and other major cities.
The U.S. Central Command forces have pounded IRGC infrastructure heavily for more than nine days. It also is possible that U.S. forces might occupy the islands in the area of the Strait of Hormuz to enable non-Iranian shipping through the strait while maintaining the blockade of all regime commerce through that vital waterway.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) response has been to send some missiles and drones — and threats — toward Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, while carefully avoiding Israel and the United Arab Emirates (whose immense retaliation capability the IRGC rightfully fears).
As heavy U.S. air attacks, going into their tenth day, take their toll on the regime, Iranian leaders have predictably reached out via third countries to resume negotiations. But they do not seem to realize that this gambit will no longer work, especially now that at least three U.S. soldiers have just been killed by Iranian missiles and drones, with dozens more wounded.
This attack was a red line for President Trump, who now appears ready to bring about the “final battle” against the IRGC and the Islamic Republic’s 45 years of terror and tyranny. The rapidly approaching U.S. midterm elections only heighten the urgency of bringing about this outcome, as President Trump wants a swift and decisive victory to boost Republicans’ electoral prospects and bring down gas prices before November.
The current intense U.S. air bombing is seen by many observers as the final weakening of the resources of the regime before setting loose the Crown Prince’s Immortal Guard and other local resistance forces in Iran to finish the job on the ground. Recent reports of widespread sabotage across Iran, and increased reports of defections of IRGC and Iranian Army officers and soldiers, support the contention of this fast-approaching final battle.
Only this outcome can avoid an even greater tragic humanitarian disaster for the long-suffering Iranian people.
Herald Boas is an AMAC Newsline contributor.
