Seemingly overnight, the world appears to have changed — the assumptions, rules, and expectations of global geopolitics have been so much suddenly basically altered.
Time will tell if this is a permanent change or only the passing fancy of the foreign policies of U.S. President Donald Trump and a cast of various political leaders scattered worldwide.
The year 2025 began with the chronic conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and the South China Sea region, but concluded with dramatic upheavals in Gaza, Iran, Eastern Europe, and South America.
At the core of most of these developments are the efforts being made in President Trump’s second term to reassert the interests of the U.S. as the defining global economic and military superpower. Those interests include a new economic playing field and the radical reduction of various regional armed conflicts.
Two of the most notorious troublemakers, Iran and Venezuela, have undergone the most change, i.e., a seemingly spontaneous popular uprising in Iran and the decapitation of the totalitarian regime in Venezuela via the U.S. military operation to capture dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife. Neither of these events has fully played out yet, but they are already changing the dynamic in their respective regions.
Leading up to these events has been a series of Trump-led actions to adjust U.S. trade with tariffs, the Trump third-party settlement of various regional conflicts, halting the temporary development of nuclear weaponry in Iran, a ceasefire in Gaza, the expansion of the Abraham Accords in the Middle East, a new North American trade pact, and the assertion of U.S. interests in the southern hemisphere, including especially Central and South America.
All of this has occurred with stunning speed and some unexpected early success.
This is not to say there are not other superpowers and major geopolitical players, including particularly China, India, and Russia. While continuing its campaign to assert economic influence in Asia, Africa, and South America, China has been quietly building a long-sought campaign to retake Taiwan. India, now the most populous nation in the world and the largest democracy, has been preoccupied with conflicts with Pakistan and other neighbors. Russia, under Vladimir Putin, has been mired in a costly war in Ukraine.
Although these countries and other major players in Europe have routinely opposed or complained about President Trump’s initiatives, their opposition has been primarily in words, and not in any meaningful actions. Only the United States, under Trump’s leadership, has taken decisive action to tip the geopolitical scales in his favor.
Meanwhile, voters in Europe, Asia, and South America have been electing more conservative leaders and governments to replace long-ruling leftist regimes. In fact, most of Europe has been moving right in the past decade, and now the same has been happening in South America, where a whole generation of conservative leaders, most of them sympathetic to Trump, have been voted into power.
Perhaps most notable of these has been President Javier Milei of Argentina, who is transforming a chronically failing economy into a successful one. Milei won a key victory last year in his country’s midterm elections, with his party becoming the top bloc in the Argentine Congress.
During his first term, President Trump had few global allies and a less consistent vision of foreign policy. He also did not have the loyalty and solid agreement from his own foreign policy staff – although he still managed to secure some noteworthy achievements, such as the Abraham Accords.
This term, his administration is working far more smoothly and effectively, and with a growing number of sympathetic world leaders, he has been able to speak boldly and carry “a big stick.”
How long this “new world” lasts is unknown. He will be in office for only about three more years. Many of Trump’s initiatives are still in process. He may lose his Republican majorities in Congress in this year’s midterm elections, and Democrats are eager to frustrate his ambitions.
Moreover, none of his now likely successors in either party seems able to match his political personality. And as I have already mentioned, other superpowers and their leaders are waiting in the wings of the world’s stage.
For the foreseeable future, however, the geopolitical post-World War II world is mostly in the past tense. A new assertive U.S.-centered world has, for the time being, replaced it.
And who knows? It might have more staying power than most observers today anticipate.
Barry Casselman is a contributor to AMAC Newsline.
