AMAC Exclusive – By Ben Solis
A new report released earlier this month has highlighted alarming potential deficiencies in the United States’ missile defense shield as adversaries like Russia and China have brought newer and more powerful missile technology to the battlefield.
The analysis from the National Institute for Public Policy’s Steve Lambakis focuses specifically on shortcomings in America’s space-based missile defense systems in light of the recent rapid advancements in hypersonic missile technology. “The current state of space sensors is inadequate to meet near- and far-term evolving missile threats,” Lambakis concludes.
Moreover, the Biden administration has shown no indication that they even recognize the severity of the threat. The report accuses the White House of not having “a clear and unified vision,” calling it “a stumbling block” for U.S. national security. “It is not clear that the Biden administration is committed to the advancement of the nation’s missile defense capability, let alone the full deployment of missile tracking sensors in space,” Lambakis writes.
Space-based missile detection and defense systems have become increasingly important as China continues to stretch its lead in hypersonic missile technology. Hypersonics, some of which travel seven times the speed of sound, are virtually invincible against all current ground-based missile defense systems.
The United States does not currently have a combat-ready hypersonic missile, although military leaders are optimistic that will change in the coming months. Nonetheless, the rapid proliferation of hypersonics has underscored the urgency of new defense technology that can contend with the threat.
Several U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific are already investing heavily in developing their own defenses. Australia is also on track to build a hypersonic missile of its own as well as more capable defense systems by 2035. As part of Japan’s expanded military budget, Tokyo is looking to develop “high-speed glide weapons” in response to China’s provocations. Collaboratively with South Korea, the Japanese also announced plans to commission destroyers with the Aegis missile interceptor system which has seen some success at intercepting hypersonic missiles at very short range.
But further advancements in hypersonic technology could render these already strained defenses completely useless. According to Space Force Commander General B. Chance Saltzman, deploying a large number of satellites that track and warn against hypersonic missile attacks is a vital first step to developing a new missile defense shield, and should be followed by investment into space-based technologies that can eliminate hypersonic missiles before they reach their targets.
But instead of pursuing this path, Biden last year banned U.S. testing of space weapons. Even as the U.S. is limited by this self-imposed ban, Russia and China have continued to conduct such tests.
America’s two chief geopolitical rivals have also continued to develop delivery systems for their hypersonic technology. According to recent reports, China currently has 2,200 missiles in its arsenal capable of reaching American targets, including military bases in the Indo-Pacific. China also designs its warships to maximize the number of missile launchers on board and has ramped up production of missile launcher trucks capable of firing up to eight rockets in rapid succession.
China has also grown more aggressive in its deployment of these weapons. Earlier this year, Japanese television station NHK reported that 11 Chinese and Russian warships passed through U.S. waters off the coast of the Aleutian Islands and spent two days there. Of those ships, seven were armed with hypersonic-capable missile launchers. At such close range, hypersonic missiles could evade ground-based conventional missile sensors and defense systems.
This looming threat has been accentuated by North Korea’s continued antagonism in the region. Earlier this week, Kim Jong-Un called for a “drastic boost” in the country’s missile production capacity. Pyongyang is reportedly working on developing “hypersonic gliding warheads” – no doubt with assistance from their neighbors in China.
The prospect of a North Korea armed with hypersonic weapons should be a five-alarm fire for Washington, as it is for other U.S. allies in the Pacific. According to Defense of Japan 2023, Tokyo’s official national security strategy, “more than ever before,” the Hermit Kingdom poses a “grave and imminent threat” to Japan’s security.
Some U.S. military leaders may have been lured into a false sense of security by the performance of existing U.S. missile defense systems on the battlefield in Ukraine. Earlier this year, Ukraine successfully downed several Russian Kinzhal missiles, which the Kremlin had previously claimed were hypersonic.
But subsequent analysis revealed that the missiles in all likelihood reached nowhere near Mach 5, the official threshold to be classified as hypersonic. While the news was a major embarrassment for Putin, it did nothing to alleviate concerns about China’s hypersonic arsenal.
As China continues its military build-up, the United States stands at a crossroads. If American missile defense infrastructure falls further behind, it may be impossible to catch up.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
