Prepare for Iran. What do I mean? I mean Iran is already deep in an undeclared war with the United States. We must stop dozing, and smell the coffee. As in the 1980s, Iran is hitting allied tankers, US military positions via proxies, and pushing the envelope. We need to build a coalition, retake high ground, and hit back.
What has Iran done in three months? Through proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and other shadows – Iran hit Israel directly, hit shipping to Israel, hit two dozen US-affiliated targets in Iraq, pushed the US and Israel from Lebanon, Syria, and – if private reports are true – has eyes on our southern border, pushing people and material north from Venezuela.
Why? Iran sees their moment, when a feckless, arrogant, and corrupt Biden Administration is on their heels, unable to conceive – never mind act upon – a strategy to stop them.
To Iran, this is too good to be true. The painful Trump sanctions forced a drawdown of critical resources, harsh repression at home, and curtailment of spending on terror and nuclear weapons development. Biden lightened Iran’s load.
Biden, in a desperate focus on securing a “peace deal” with Iran, actually freed up six billion dollars in formerly frozen assets, so now Iran can spend more freely on repression at home, terror abroad, and finalizing nuclear weapons.
Iran is within months, some say weeks, of a nuclear device, enrichment of uranium at 60 percent. The reality has security observers shy to discuss it, but this is happening because Iran has no fear of – all loathing for – the US, and sees an opening.
What else? We know Iran is allied with nations wishing America – and our freedom-loving, free-market approach to world order – no good. Iran is aligned and diplomatically engaged with China, Russia, North Korea, Venezuela, and others.
We know Iran is pushing America in other ways, land-based and naval attacks on foreign-flagged tankers by drone – done through proxies, but all going back to Iran. Iran has now deliberately put a warship, a destroyer, in the Red Sea. For what aim?
In the past three months, Iran has adopted a posture of aggression not seen since the 1980s, when multiple attacks were launched on foreign-flagged tankers and US warships, the Persian Gulf raked by risks now in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.
So, the real question is not whether Iran is a force for no good, a source of evil and terror, or intends to sow disorder, disruption, division, and – as possible – chaos. They are and they do.
The real question is how to deal with this rogue in a disturbed region, weapons growing more lethal, potentially existential in power, Iran pushing the theater.
The answer is to look back at what has worked before, what we dismiss as irrelevant because it is past, yet is highly relevant, a source of guidance: History.
Specifically, Reagan in the 1980s – as he promised before he did it – confronted Iran, a nation waging war openly against Iraq and a source of radiating terror and disorder. He said, stand down or we will disable much of your ability to harm.
Iran ignored him, at their peril. In naval actions between October 1987 and April 1988, Reagan sank half the Iranian Navy, reduced their oil-producing power, demined the Persian Gulf, and defended international trade around the world.
What else? Reagan formed an international coalition, which became a powerful maritime force to preserve liberty, safety, and free trade, especially in the Gulf.
Uniting the world to preserve the good, in opposition to what we know as evil, he created Operation Earnest Will, protecting the Persian Gulf and its commerce.
What happened? Iran backed down. Deterrence worked. Not only did free trade flourish, and global respect for the US and its allies rise, but Iran was so clipped they initiated an end to the Iran-Iraq War—briefly, a balance returned.
Humanity, of course, has a way of making a mess of good things from the Garden of Eden to the present. Before long, more conflict erupted. Iraq and Iran retooled.
Truth is, we will never secure a moment in human history when peace breaks out for good, and war is vanquished. That is because humans run the planet.
What we can aim for is periods of rationality created by deterrence, strong leadership producing a decisive, hard-headed defense of liberty, and awareness of risks.
Evil forces buffet us now. Chief among the nations that do not believe in human rights, democracy, peace, liberty, and prosperity – or defending “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” – is Iran.
Iran is at war with us by proxy and ideologically, perhaps soon directly. China is not far behind. We must be ready. So, let’s think ahead. Let’s prepare for Iran.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.
