America is at a dangerous place in history, far from our traditional fixed point. We see indicators – recurring lawlessness, long and high levels, and now abuse for political gain. What is happening? Will our society stabilize like a damping curve, or will we oscillate out of control toward chaos?
In physics, there is a way to answer that question, which involves calculating the “angular wave vector” and changes in wave amplitude, to see whether the curve you are on is more stable or unstable. Will things settle down, or will they grow more uncontrolled?
If you forgive the physical analogy reference, can we identify the eigenvector of society, where we are, whether the curve is stable or unstable, damping or not?
Is there a way to use data to predict whether recent events suggest higher frequency, longer, deeper bouts of instability, or the reverse, a storm-tossed society soon restabilizing?
In physics, to figure out whether you are on a stable curve that is temporarily unstable, or an unstable curve likely to get more so, you have to do lots of math, but there are “thought experiments” to assess whether the curve settles (returns to a fixed place) or whether, driven by persistent outside forces, the curve gets wilder.
So, where are we? Are we in a “rough patch,” temporary lawlessness – open borders, abuse of power, distrust of government, lawfare, riots, a tit-for-tat delegitimizing of institutions, White House to Supreme Court – or worse?
Most hope we are in a “rough patch,” a passing storm. We would like to believe the Constitution’s protection of individuals – and the legitimacy of our institutions – will hold. But will they?
One way you assess your place and whether you will return to a fixed point is data. Was the original fixed point stable or unstable? Are we the ball at rest in a troth between two hills, which can be rolled up one hill but returns to where it started, or the ball at the top of a hill, which rolled down rests in a different place forever?
In political terms, will the storm of lawlessness – penetrated borders, record drugs, public corruption, demagoguery, ideology, and misuse of the law to persecute opponents – pass or grow worse? Will the ball return to a place of stability, or not?
In history as in physics, to figure out whether the fixed point is stable or unstable, forces at work temporary or permanent, we must look for data.
Typically, data puts you on one of three curves –“stable and damped,” big swings but destined for normal, like WWII, 1960s instability, the oil shock of 1973, or “stable and undamped,” like rising and falling of interest (constant fluctuations), or “unstable and ever-increasing” (like a car fishtailing until it crashes).
Physics applied to politics might say that today’s curve will damp itself as institutions restore stability, or might pound us to exhaustion, or might increase “fluctuations… to catastrophic failure.”
Which curve are we on then? Consider our past. America has hit big storms before and survived every war – external and internal. Our institutions have so far outlived every politician who abused them.
Our people have never said, “Please, take my rights.” We are not saying it now. That said, we have almost lost rights many times until people stood up and asserted power over corrupt leaders.
A dozen presidents and vice presidents have been sued, charged, and put through the courts, Aaron Burr for killing Alexander Hamilton, Abe Lincoln, and Harry Truman before office, and Theodore Roosevelt for libel after office. The past ten presidents were all sued.
Scandals – especially tied to elections – often plague presidents, from the 1824’s “Corrupt Bargain” favoring John Quincy Adams over Andrew Jackson, who held more popular and electoral votes, to “Teapot Dome” under Harding and electoral corruption charges in 1876, 1912, 1960, and 2000.
Other data? Politics in the courts happens when we are closely divided, tempers running hot, and the incentive to abuse is high, as now. Elections do settle things.
In other words, if you look back, what you see is wild events, violence, and abused power – yet damping oscillations, much self-correction, returns to a fixed point.
Some will say the fixed point changed in the past 70 years, toward a more progressive, less conservative spot. That is so. But history is a strange thing. It depends on your rangefinder. The past 800 years have pushed individual rights.
To me, the “eigenvector” of society turns out to be a function of who we are, our history, unwillingness to let big government rule us, although we rise only in crisis. America is surely in a dangerous place, far from our fixed point. But lawlessness and corruption end, like wars. The hope is our “angular wave vector” and changes in wave amplitude return the ball to where it belongs. But we have to keep our eye on it. That is part of the equation.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.
