Iran is within weeks of a nuclear weapon, and from there forward – if not stopped immediately by a collaborative world response – they can replicate, and create enough weapons to destroy Israel and the US within a year. That is what open-source experts say. So, what is needed? American leadership.
Before we answer that important question, ask yourself a few more. What does creating a nuclear weapon really mean? Several things, not spoken about. Yes, Iran needs to complete enriching uranium to weapons grade, or 90 percent, and they are close, but more is needed.
The shine is off Teheran’s enrichment program – it has been for a long time. The goal is crystal clear: Nuclear weapons. Nuclear energy requires five percent enrichment, research 20 percent, weapons 90 percent – and Iran’s gas centrifuges appear to have spun uranium gas to within reach of 90 percent, or a concentration of Uranium 235 (u-235) sufficient to make a nuclear bomb.
More specifically, “Iran’s number of installed centrifuges, the mass and u-235 concentration of Tehran’s enriched uranium stockpile, and number of enrichment locations … prohibited research and development, illicit uranium metal production, and centrifuge manufacturing and installation,” are all beyond limits set years ago, and Iran has consistently lied about what they are doing.
To be clear, this did not start under Joe Biden, nor under Trump, or Obama, but dates back to 2003, when George W. Bush was president. But the pace has changed, jumping under Obama, despite payouts to appease Iran and slow the process, again under Biden. While it likely continued under Trump, the Trump-era sanctions measurably hurt Iran, and markedly slowed the process.
Now, we come to this hour, the global witching hour, when Iran is on the verge of “break out,” as nuclear observers call it. Iran is very close to declaring themselves nuclear. From there, who knows what might happen, since they are behind the current wave of Middle East violence, behind Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Yemen’s Houthi rebel attacks on commerce in the Red Sea, hundreds of attacks on US forces in the region, including in Iraq.
But there is more to this matrix than meets the eye. To put a nuclear warhead – even one, let alone multiple – on a ballistic missile and deliver it to any location, Iran also needs a reliable weapons design, detonation system, and survivable warhead, all three hard to create, let alone perfect.
While Iran already possesses short, medium, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, such as the Shebab-3, based on a North Korean missile, perfecting the weapon-to-missile fit – getting weight, size, shape, detonation, and functionality to deliver a nuclear weapon – gun or implosion – is hard.
So, what does that mean? In the end, four things. First, if Iran creates a nuclear weapon, we have to know and act fast. Second, Iran will seek to quickly match it to a missile, and begin creating more. Third, the rest of the Middle East – and perhaps the world – will look for a nuclear deterrent, that is, a means to counter Iran, which could open Pandora’s box. Finally, without an immediate reliable means for ballistic delivery, Iran would look for other means to terrorize the world with their new weapon.
Assuming we are prepared to take decisive action – an undefined combination of cyber and physical responses to slow, deter, neutralize, or destroy Iran’s ability to ramp up production, what else should we be doing?
Answer: We should be on guard, looking for some asymmetric, low-tech, unlikely, or surprise Iranian use of this weapon against a Western, likely Israeli or American, target.
How? Iran could put such a weapon on a small boat and deploy it to the Persian Gulf or the Red Sea, could seek to deploy it overland to a regional ally with US personnel, such as Iraq, or it could try to walk it over some open border, for example into an unsuspecting US city, and then detonate it.
Bottom line: Iran is close to taking terror up a notch, from concentric circles of chaos around Israel to terrorizing the globe with a walk-in nuclear weapon. Here is where politics ends and conscientious, collaborative, responsive, deterring action begins. US leadership is needed – now.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.
