Free elections are much more like team sports than perhaps we think they are, and especially so today when team sports are so implicated in the daily lives of a nation of spectators who closely follow baseball, football, basketball, hockey, soccer, etc. — both professional and amateur.
Fans root for teams but also have their favorite players on their teams. So it is with politics — voters identify with political parties but also have their favorite candidates.
Candidates in free elections always have mattered, but idiosyncratic candidates can matter even more in a polarized political environment where most voters are completely absorbed in taking one side. In such an environment, we often see the sudden rise of populist figures on both the left and the right. These candidates espouse views and/or have backgrounds that have not led to successful campaigns in the past, but they nonetheless thrive during a unique moment in history.
The most notable recent such figure, of course, was Donald Trump, a real estate developer and TV personality with no campaign experience. In less than a year, Mr. Trump went from just a noisy celebrity to becoming President of the United States.
Each recent cycle seems to produce more examples of the celebrity/populist non-traditional political candidate in both parties. The 2026 national midterm cycle has produced several of them, especially in higher profile races for the U.S. Senate. At least three of them are in competitive races, and so could have an impact on which party controls the Senate.
In Texas, usually a strong Republican state, the sitting Republican incumbent, John Cornyn, was defeated in his party’s U.S. Senate primary by the state attorney general, Ken Paxton. Paxton is a much more controversial figure but had President Trump’s endorsement.
The Democrat nominee is James Talarico, a four-term member of the Texas legislature; a Presbyterian seminarian who has claimed that God is “nonbinary” and stated that the Bible is pro-abortion; and a critic of Israel and U.S. support to Israel. He holds progressive views on social issues.
Recent polls show Talarico slightly ahead or tied with Paxton. Paxton has already won statewide several times and will benefit from popular GOP Governor Greg Abbott running for re-election at the top of the ballot in November. Talarico appears on national liberal TV shows expressing controversial views and ideas, but has raised a record amount of campaign funds. National Democrats believe his non-traditional campaign can pick up this GOP seat in the race against Paxton.
In Maine, Graham Platner, an oyster farmer with a private school education and a well-to-do family background, will be the Democrat running against long-time GOP U.S. Senator Susan Collins, a moderate Republican who has often been at odds with President Trump. She is the only GOP senator from the northeast, where Republicans are routinely more moderate on social issues than in the rest of the country.
Platner has been the subject of several recent controversial news stories about his private life, and some prominent Democrats have asked him to leave the race. He does lead Collins by a few points in all recent polls, although Collins in previous races trailed in all pre-election polls before winning by several points against much less controversial Democrats on Election Day.
Platner has been compared to Pennsylvania U.S. Senator John Fetterman, a Democrat who similarly came from a wealthy background but cultivated a working-class image. Fetterman won in 2022 despite suffering a stroke that seriously inhibited his ability to campaign. He has turned out to be a thoughtful maverick and a strong supporter of Israel.
Platner, like Talarico in Texas and most other Democrats running in 2026, has taken anti-Israel positions. Like Texas, Maine is a prime pick-up target for Democrats in 2026.
In Minnesota, traditionally a blue state, incumbent Democrat (DFL) Senator Tina Smith is retiring. The likely GOP nominee will be Michelle Tafoya, a widely known sports TV broadcaster with no previous electoral experience. At the GOP state convention, she came in second in the endorsement contest, but the winner is unknown statewide and has raised almost no serious campaign funds. Tafoya already has raised significant funds, and a recent poll indicates she is the overwhelming choice of likely GOP primary voters.
One reason Tafoya failed to win the endorsement contest is that she is pro-choice in a party that is mostly pro-life – something that hurt her at the GOP state convention, but is likely to help her with independent voters in November. She has, however, impressed many state and national party leaders with her campaign skills and quick grasp of political issues.
Boosting her chances in November is the bitter primary battle for the DFL nomination between current Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan, who won the DFL state convention endorsement, and retiring 2nd District Congresswoman Angie Craig, who is considered the better campaigner and has raised far more campaign funds. Flanagan represents the progressive/radical wing of the party. Polls indicate that Flanagan is slightly ahead or tied with more moderate Craig.
Political ads already depict a bitter primary battle between the two, and Tafoya could be the beneficiary of this after the August primaries. This race has so far been neglected by national pundits, most of whom have considered this a safe DFL seat. The growing and highly publicized fraud scandals in Minnesota, however, are hurting many 2026 DFL candidates, and have given state Republicans an unexpected pick-up opportunity.
Democrats need to net at least four seats to flip control of the Senate. When the votes are counted, which party controls the majority come January could well depend on the performance of these non-traditional candidates.
Herald Boas is an AMAC Newsline contributor.
