At least 19 states and 40 local jurisdictions are set to increase their minimum wage rates on January 1, 2026. But the evidence shows that such increases only end up killing jobs – particularly for young people looking for their first employment opportunity.
While the federal minimum wage remains $7.25 per hour, the minimum wage will soon be above $20 per hour in cities like Tukwila, Washington ($21.65), Seattle, Washington ($21.30), and West Hollywood, California ($20.25). Washington’s minimum wage will increase from $16.66 to $17.13 in 2026, New York’s will rise to $17 for New York City and $16 for the rest of the state, and Connecticut’s will increase to $16.94.
Proponents of increasing the minimum wage have long argued that it is a big win for workers. But in states that have implemented the most dramatic minimum wage hikes, it has been an unmitigated disaster.
California, with its runaway cost-of-living crisis, has long been at the forefront of the movement to increase the minimum wage. In 2024, Democrat Rep. Barbara Lee infamously proposed a $50 minimum wage, citing a study indicating that a family of four needed $127,000 per year to survive in San Francisco. While not quite that severe, the Golden State still has the third-highest minimum wage in the country at $16.50 (set to go to $16.90 in 2026), behind only Washington, D.C. (17.95) and Washington state.
Under the provisions of California AB 1228, the minimum wage for most fast-food workers in California is even higher at $20 per hour. That law was supposed to increase pay for workers. Instead, it led to many of them losing their jobs entirely and to fewer opportunities for young workers to gain valuable employment experience.
According to a study out last month from Reason magazine, AB 1228 has killed about 18,000 fast-food jobs in California. Prior to the passage of AB 1228, fast-food employment was rising faster in California than elsewhere in the country. But between September 2023, when the bill was passed, and September 2024, “employment in California’s fast-food sector declined by 2.7 percent.”
Another report from the California Globe argues that the economic devastation has been even worse. Citing Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the Globe relayed that California has lost a staggering 36,000 fast-food jobs. “In addition to the massive spike in job loss, many large chains, including Jack in the Box, saw them closing dozens of California locations so far this year,” the Globe reports. “Even the SEIU and other unions have admitted this year that AB 1228 has caused job loss in California.”
In addition to simply cutting staff and closing locations, businesses operating in states with high minimum wage rates are also more incentivized than ever to use technology to replace workers. Last April, a new restaurant chain in New York City made headlines for outsourcing jobs to the Philippines via Zoom. Customers are greeted with video screens instead of in-person employees.
As The New York Post reported, “The shops — which specialize in fried chicken and ramen — are taking advantage of the massive wealth gap between New York City, where the minimum wage is $16 per hour, and a Southeast Asian nation where hourly pay is closer to $3.75.” At least one cashier was allegedly working for three restaurants at the same time, cycling through different screens to take orders.
The outsourcing of entry-level jobs is a predictable consequence of New York steadily raising its minimum wage since 2013. Shockingly, however, state and city leaders do not appear to understand how this disproportionately impacts young workers. A June 2025 report from New York State’s comptroller lamented how New York City’s “youth unemployment rate was higher than the national rate.”
In past generations, working the fast-food drive-thru or manning the checkout line at a grocery store were seen as entry-level jobs that put some money in the pockets of young people. These jobs also allowed them to gain valuable soft skills like showing up on time and learning to follow directions from their boss. But now these opportunities are increasingly rare.
“Black, Hispanic, and Asian youth, especially males, continued to face even higher unemployment rates, with young Black workers at 23.8 percent, nine points greater than in 2019,” New York Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli warned. While DiNapoli noted that young people “tend to work in lower wage industries,” he placed the blame on “potential federal funding cuts to education and workforce development grants” and COVID-19 lockdowns. The solution, DiNapoli said, is to spend more taxpayer dollars on youth programs.
Ironically, some of the blame for the high youth unemployment rate should be placed on DiNapoli himself. In 2021, he boasted about using the state’s stock holdings in major companies to pressure them to raise their minimum wage rates.
New York City’s mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani similarly suffers from a case of economic ignorance. The “democratic socialist” included a pledge of “$30 by ‘30,” promising to raise the minimum wage to $30 within the next five years. “When working people have more money in their pocket, the overall economy thrives,” Mamdani said, according to a local news outlet.
Minimum wage hikes have plenty of consequences, from job offshoring to reduced hours, fewer employment opportunities for young people, and closing down businesses entirely. But liberals’ central promise of bigger paychecks for workers remains elusive. Instead of more money in their pockets, many workers are simply losing their paychecks entirely.
Matt Lamb is an associate editor for The College Fix. He previously worked for Students for Life of America, Students for Life Action, and Turning Point USA. He previously interned for Open the Books. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Examiner, The Federalist, LifeSiteNews, Human Life Review, Headline USA, and other outlets. The opinions expressed are his own. Follow him @mattlamb22 on X.
