While the vice-presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz on Tuesday has dominated the headlines in recent days, the first of three Pennsylvania Senate debates on October 3 could be similarly consequential.
After three-term incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., held a steady polling lead throughout the summer, Republican David McCormick is now within striking distance. If McCormick can complete the comeback, Democrats stand virtually no chance of holding the Senate this November – even if they can manage to unseat a Republican incumbent elsewhere.
According to the latest RealClearPolitics average, Casey now leads by just four points after having led by 7.6 in late August. In some polls, the margin is even closer. One survey from Rasmussen Reports in late September found the race tied.
Conventional wisdom throughout 2024 has held that Pennsylvania would be one of the most difficult pickups for Republicans this cycle. Casey has spent the majority of his career in public office and is the first Democrat to win three consecutive terms in the U.S. Senate. Casey easily won re-election by nine percent in 2012 and 13 percent in 2018 in a state that is typically a political battleground. His father, Bob Casey, Sr., was the 42nd Governor of Pennsylvania.
But McCormick has proven himself a worthy challenger, focusing his campaign on the issues that both matter most to voters and are weak points for Casey and the Democrat Party – namely, the economy and immigration. According to a September poll from the Philadelphia Inquirer, The New York Times, and Siena College, McCormick leads Casey by one point among likely voters on the question of who they trust to handle immigration. On the economy, Casey leads 46 percent to 40 percent. But with 15 percent undecided, McCormick still has an opportunity to make gains before Election Day.
Inflation and the increasing cost of living in particular are emerging as major issues for both candidates, especially with all-important suburban voters in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. McCormick has blasted Casey over his support for the White House’s trillion-dollar spending packages that sent inflation soaring in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Casey, meanwhile, has followed Kamala Harris’s lead in blaming “corporate greed” for cost increases.
McCormick has also tied Casey to unpopular, extreme left-wing Biden-Harris administration policies, undermining Casey’s attempt to paint himself as a political moderate. In one of the more striking ads of this cycle earlier this summer, McCormick’s campaign spliced together footage of Harris advocating for radical policies like defunding the police, abolishing ICE, banning fracking, decriminalizing illegal border crossings, and abolishing private healthcare alongside a clip of Casey enthusiastically endorsing Harris.
“Bob Casey just endorsed the most liberal nominee in U.S. history,” McCormick posted with the video on X.
With the race now looking like a true toss-up, three key factors will likely determine the outcome.
The first is spending by both parties over the final few weeks. The race is already one of the most expensive in history, with more than $300 million in ad spending and reservations this year. So far, Democrat-aligned groups have outspent Republicans by about 15 percent. Republicans will look to close that gap before November 5.
The second key factor will be the debates. The first contest is this Thursday in Harrisburg, followed by a televised debate in Philadelphia on October 15 and another debate in Pittsburgh for which a date has not yet been set.
On the debate stage, McCormick will have a chance to confront Casey directly over how his policies have failed Pennsylvania – in particular his support for the Biden-Harris administration’s war on American energy. Although Kamala Harris now claims to not be in favor of banning fracking, a key Pennsylvania industry, she explicitly called for an outright ban on the practice in 2019.
The third – and perhaps most important – factor in the race will be the presidential outcome. Trump currently leads by less than one point in the latest RealClearPolitics average. Around this time in 2020, Biden was leading Trump by about seven points before gaining ground in the final weeks of the race. If that trend repeats itself, Trump could win by a healthy margin in the state, likely bringing McCormick along with him. Even if Trump wins by only a small margin, McCormick could flip the seat if his current momentum continues.
A Harris victory, however, would likely mean that Casey holds onto his seat. In 2012, the only other time he ran for re-election in a presidential year, he performed about four points better than Barack Obama in the state. His favorability rating has also consistently outpaced that of Obama and Biden.
With polls also tightening in Florida and Texas, where Republican Senators Rick Scott and Ted Cruz, respectively, are facing competitive re-election battles of their own, Pennsylvania could live up to its nickname of the Keystone State. Republicans are heavily favored to win Democrat Joe Manchin’s West Virginia seat and are in a solid position to oust Jon Tester in Montana, giving them a 51-49 majority if all else holds.
But if Democrats can flip a Republican seat, the GOP will need another pickup for an outright majority. That could leave Pennsylvania in the critical position of deciding control of the Senate.
Andrew Shirley is a veteran speechwriter and AMAC Newsline columnist. His commentary can be found on X at @AA_Shirley.
