Israel and Iran are now at ring center, no longer in their corners, formally at war. Israel is no longer fighting just proxies, nor is Iran containing itself to proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, or the Red Sea. Israel now faces a six-front war, and the US is being drawn in fast.
How the latest Middle East war started, how it escalated, what happened on October 7, why that happened, who finances Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, what preceded the war, and where it is going are worthy questions. But put them in the “important” basket, not the “urgent” one.
Urgently, things are likely to change fast. They could get more violent, spread, and involve factors most are not thinking about, attacks in the US to a nuclear Iran, triggering a swift push by Sunni nations to go nuclear and opening the door to elevated European and Pacific conflict.
Unless US leadership steps up and persuades our Mideast, European, Pacific, and UN allies to speak with one voice and deter future erosion of regional and global stability, this bilateral conflict could become a kind of tipping point for wider, tinder-ready conflict.
In short, Israel faces six immediate – or urgent – fronts, areas of focus, and must neutralize them all, whether that means ending the conflict at that source or merely reducing it for now.
The Israel’s six fronts, which Iran’s attack now makes clear, are:
(1) Territorial Iran – an enormous military threat to the northeast, geographically separated only by Jordan and Iraq, which has decided to risk direct war with Israel, thus risk Israeli and US counterattacks, and is weeks from weapons’ grade uranium, mere months from a nuclear weapon;
(2) Hamas in Gaza to the east, which attacked on October 7, trigging a war front that Israel has turned into a wasteland, 30,000 Palestinians dead, remaining refugees compressed and hunkered;
(3) Hezbollah in Lebanon to the north, an Iranian proxy with 20,000 combatants, 3000 rockets, $700 million, and strong defensive positions, but no answer to Israel’s air supremacy and weak resupply;
(4) Syria to the north and surrounding Lebanon, an Iranian ally with thousands of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and missiles, including Quds force, tanks, tactical ballistic missiles, and 130,000 armies, allied with Russia, nominally and indirectly China, albeit mid-civil war;
(5) Yemen and the Red Sea, where Iranian-supported Houthi rebels attack global shipping in the Red Sea, seeking to disrupt the resupply of Israel and threaten Saudi Arabia, causing the US to defend; and
(6) A global public relations battle, which has been complicated – inside Israel, across the region, and with traditional allies, by the speed, intensity, breadth, and impact on Gaza civilians of Netanyahu‘s response to the October 7 attack, gradually but not entirely snuffing out Hamas.
To these six fronts, one must add the impact on Israel of Russia and China making inroads with Sunni Arab countries, Iran’s profound influence on – and infestation of – Iraq’s Shia-led government, and the breathtaking lack of leadership by the Biden Administration, which as undercut, confused, demoralized and disoriented the global community, including support for peace in the region.
So, that is where we are – and the next question is: Where does that collection of challenges vector the world, lead Israel next, and lead the US? Answer: As likely as not, to a broader, more intense more direct conflict between Iran and Israel, which means Iran, Iran’s proxies, and the US.
In practical terms, what does that mean? We need to unify the globe in opposing Iran, deter future escalation, seek stabilization of Gaza now in both military and humanitarian terms, new caution by Americans abroad, and intense counterterrorism vigilance at home, and finally tighten the US border.
The world is not coming to an end, but the danger level just notched up a peg, and at some point the potential for an all-out war with Iran becomes real. We must deter that now. Israel is at war on six fronts or more as you count, but in reality – these fronts affect everyone. We are all in this now.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.
