Some days, you feel like saying, “Come on Charlie Brown.” Biden has finally responded to Iran killing US troops in Jordan, launching 85 one-off shots at proxy targets. While some are better than none, birdshot seldom affects a marauding bear, nor a handful of pebbles in a near-nuclear radical Islamic state. Let’s get real.
History teaches deterrence works, but what is deterrence? And how do you do it right? There is the question apparently unstudied by the Biden team. Here is how.
Context: The United States backs Israel, which aims to end Hamas, an Iranian-supported terror group sworn to destroy Israel. Hamas attacked Israel, with Iran’s support, on October 7, 2023. Israel retaliated, going into Gaza. Innocents on both sides have died in large numbers. Iran does not care.
Iran supports Hezbollah, a terror group in Lebanon – thousands of missiles. Iran supports the Houthi rebels, the terror group in Yemen, Zaidi Shia, and Shiite Muslims.
After Hamas attacked Israel and Israel responded in Gaza, Arab countries sought a ceasefire, the release of hostages, and humanitarian aid to Palestinian refugees. The UN added its voice. Biden, ignored, added his. Iran does not care.
Actually, this is exactly what Iran wanted. The US and Israel are isolated, and Europe and others assessing Israel’s actions under the Geneva Conventions. Biden, who arguably precipitated this war by appeasing Iran, seems unable to be cogent.
Iran sees all this, sees its moment. Surrogates in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, keep hitting Israel with rockets, targeting US bases in Iraq, Syria, and now Jordan, attacking ships in the Red Sea, a transit channel for 10 percent of world trade.
The region is filled with Iran’s live fire from Iraq, Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. US bases continue to be hit, US warships are forcing down Iranian drones, and insurers no longer want to cover shipping through the Red Sea, raising costs.
All this is bad enough, and should have led to a fast response, but no. While seeking a ceasefire, Biden should have hit Iran’s Navy and proxies months ago. He did not.
Eventually, Biden’s team sent warplanes and missiles to hit Houthi strongholds, scattered targets allegedly tied to Iran’s IRGC Quds Group, but weeks late and after giving them all warning. By that time, Iran’s chessmen were moving.
Again, the right answer would have been an international coalition to protect the Red Sea last October; they did nothing until January, late and ineffective.
Why? Confusion, unstudied in history, religion, and Iran’s modus operandi, Biden’s team was at a loss.
Not surprisingly, Iran has no respect for Biden, counts him a fool, and plays him like Lucy playing Charlie Brown with the football. Iran eggs Biden on, embarrasses him, pulls the ball, and does it again.
Change: Late January, things changed materially – Iran got ambitious and Biden’s unprepared defense team was lazy. Iran hit Americans and killed them in a friendly Jordan. With impunity, Iran killed three innocent American service members.
Iran’s surrogates gloated. Iran told Biden there was no connection. Biden delayed, said he does “not want war with Iran,” gave Iran a warning, hit 85 empty targets, minimal value, minimal impact. Iran shrugged.
What a contrast. Almost 20 years ago, my job for Colin Powell was to set up a training base for allied personnel in Jordan. If Iran had hit that base, all hell would have broken loose.
Almost 40 years ago, Iran hit tankers and a US Navy ship in the Persian Gulf. President Reagan promptly sank Iran’s armed platforms, a dozen ships, with no apology.
A reporter, Sam Donaldson or Helen Thomas, asked if this meant we were “at war” with Iran. Reagan almost chucked. “No, they would not be that stupid.”
Reagan silenced Iran, stunned them, with no hesitation or warning, high impact. They did not restart their antics for years, pulled back, and concluded the Iran-Iraq war.
So, what should have happened? War? No, not necessary. Biden – whose team fumbled the ball, missed the drone that killed US troops, sent birdshot into the field, hoping it might scare Iran. Not likely.
Biden should have sunk the rogue Iranian destroyer coordinating terror acts from the Red Sea, then hit senior IRGC leaders, the evil hearts behind the attacks.
He should have immediately deployed a second carrier strike group to the region, parked it in the Gulf, and lit up the sky. He should have flipped the US switch on to OCO – Offensive Cyber Operations, and used them with focus and discretion.
As he opened the OCO aperture, he should have ramped up DCO – Defensive Cyber Operations – with advanced planning, predicting what Iran and China will do. He should have given no warning to Iran – or China – of any of this, just done it.
To block kinetic threats, he should redouble ballistic missile defenses, add funding to the supplemental bill pending in Congress, be bipartisan, and just do it.
Finally, he should have swiftly spoken from the Oval, no cards, all heart. He should have reviewed how Reagan, Eisenhower, and Kennedy responded to such events.
He should have launched, had an impact, then said: “Iran, jig is up. Back off or we take out leadership chains, more ships, forcibly shut down your nuclear program, and fully support other Arab countries and the world.”
So, there it is. Did Biden focus on key targets, have a plan, launch fast, no warning, register impact? No. Iran deterred? No. Some days, you feel like saying, “Come on Charlie Brown.”
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.
