Russia miscalculated. Events in Ukraine, across Europe, and globally – are moving fast, as Russia’s invasion continues to leave a path of fear, destruction, and death, creating growing refugee streams into Europe, upending longstanding assumptions around international security, law, and energy interdependence. As days pass, this looks increasingly like a blunder, with significant implications.
For starters, Russia has broken the post-WWII consensus that imagined civilized countries would not invade their neighbors, would not abandon established legal and moral norms, not endanger global security, trade, and interdependence. Expectations that Russia respected these norms are shattered.
At this point, implications of the invasion – and its surprising expansion – are several and concerning. While the use of nuclear weapons scary scenarios of World War III are overblown, the impact will last.
What really seems to be happening is that Mr. Putin thought this would be easy, painless, and prove himself a global force. He has overreached; none of that is true. Cocksure and militaristic, untroubled by moral and legal infractions, convinced that he could muscle over a weakly-led West, he has triggered an avalanche of opposition, which he likely did not foresee.
Within Ukraine, the people are irate, patriotic, willing to risk all and die, as many have already, to oppose this brutal, unprovoked, and highly destructive invasion. In places like Kiev, so poignantly celebrated by epic composers like Mussorgsky and his “Pictures at an Exhibition” – featuring the “Bells of Kiev” – the willingness to die for freedom and to oppose the invasion was not forecast.
Then in Europe, in concert with The United States, a new level of opposition has emerged. Germany has shut off the Nord-stream 2 pipeline, despite Germany, Poland, and Hungary, in particular, being highly dependent on Russia for oil and gas.
Europe only produces a third of its own energy, so it depends heavily on imports. Seventy percent of their natural gas comes from three countries, Russia, the US, and Qatar. While the US has gradually ramped up experts to Europe of gas in recent years, the process was slow. Now it may accelerate.
New logic suggests that the US Administration – if they finally sanction Russia’s oil and gas sector – will need to prepare for Russia to cut off supplies to Europe, which amount to 30 percent of all Europe’s oil and 40 percent of their natural gas.
If this happens, where will Russia get oil and gas? With the North Sea area having gone slack years ago, which is what triggered dependence on Russia, a rethink on energy may occur. Biden and others around the world may be pressed to restart and accelerate fossil fuel extraction, refinement, and export, which could be good for the Europeans and for the US job market and energy sector.
To keep the Europeans in line with heavy sanctions on Russian oil – effectively punishing Russia where it hurts, denying them revenue – the Administration may have to say that “climate change can wait,” and restart drilling, pipelines, fracking, and the policies of Trump and prior free-market advocates, which had made the US “energy independent” a mere 18 months ago.
This about-face would have major implications, positively fueling Europe, refilling their (at 30 percent) fuel reserves, bolstering the US economy, and firmly vindicating energy independence. We will see if the courage exists to put sanctions on Russia’s oil sector, and then to support Europe for doing so.
Other implications are both more and less obvious. If this invasion is not reversed, heavily punished, and Russia forced to back down, China may see an opportunity to hit Taiwan. The tolerance for illegal activity, violence, and invasion may have just risen.
On the flip side, if the Russian people’s opposition to this invasion and its immoral, illegal, heinous aspects grows, the impact inside Russia of political opposition could be profound. Putin may find his government – as autocratic and intolerant as it is – on defense. Protests continue to grow.
Finally, the global revulsion at this act of medieval conquest, seemingly indifferent to human rights, international law, and all-prevailing post-WWII norms, may unify the West, NATO, and even opposition to Russia’s ally China. The battle between lawful and unlawful, free and unfree, moral and immoral, democracy and communism or former communist ways, may be joined.
In the grand scheme, this invasion appears to be a horrible error by Putin, a clear misreading of history, Western power, will, and resolve to punish a brutal assault on freedom and democracy. That misreading is both Putin’s fault and – to some degree – the fault of shabby diplomacy up to the invasion. That said, we are all now here.
The future will be, in some important ways, defined by how strongly, with courage and unity, the West responds to this breaking of glass, this bold violation of humanity, law, and morality by Russia.