As Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) layoffs strike various government agencies, Virginia Republicans and Democrats both believe fallout from the firings could aid them in the upcoming gubernatorial and House of Delegates elections.
On the Republican side, political operatives are optimistic that the firings will create a mass exodus of federal bureaucrats from the DMV (D.C., Maryland, and Virginia) area that could tilt the needle in the direction of the presumed Republican candidate, current Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Over 90,000 federal workers live in Northern Virginia, with over 140,000 total federal workers in the state.
Seeming to support this theory, some accounts on X and other social media sites have alleged that housing data shows an unusually high number of housing listings in Northern Virginia. According to Fox News 5, however, the D.C.-area housing market is stable, and other reports have cast serious doubt on the narrative that a significant number of government workers are moving out of the state.
Federal employees lean heavily Democrat, with 84 percent of donations from the group in last year’s presidential race going to Kamala Harris. Many live in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Arlington, Loudoun, and Fairfax Counties.
Four years ago, incumbent Governor Glenn Youngkin was able to cut into Democrat margins in these counties, paving the way for him to become the first Republican elected statewide in the Old Dominion since 2009. Sears is currently polling 4.8 points behind likely Democrat nominee Abigail Spanberger and could stand to benefit from Democrat voters leaving the DMV area.
During an event in Bowling Green, Virginia, earlier this month, Sears expressed her support for DOGE’s initiatives, praising Trump for “getting to the bottom of all this,” referring to government waste, fraud, and abuse.
“We do want people to be employed,” she continued. “That’s a given. What we want to know is how are we spending the taxpayers’ money, who is spending the money… and is there a better way to spend the money?”
In an interview with The Associated Press, Sears added that “the president was elected fully explaining what he was going to do. He didn’t hide anything from anyone.” On the topic of government agencies suffering from layoffs, she declared that “no one likes bureaucracy — we want to get things done. And unfortunately, sometimes the government stands in the way of the people.”
But Sears has also vocally supported an initiative by Youngkin to help former federal employees find new jobs in Virginia. According to the governor’s office, Virginia currently has more than 250,000 job openings.
On the other side of the aisle, many Democrat political operatives believe that the DOGE cuts will help Democrats, not Republicans, this November.
Recent articles in AP, The Dispatch, and Politico argue that large layoffs and cuts hit “close to home” for those living in the DMV area and could create an “anti-chaos government” platform for the Virginia Democrats.
The stakes for Virginia’s 2025 elections are high. Control of the governorship and the House of Delegates are both up for grabs. Youngkin, who won by less than two percentage points in 2021, is unable to run for reelection due to the Virginia Constitution’s prohibition of consecutive gubernatorial terms. All 100 House of Delegates seats are up for grabs, with Democrats currently holding a slim 51-49 majority.
In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris won 59 of the 100 House of Delegates districts, eight of which are currently held by Republicans. If this trend holds true in the House of Delegates elections and Democrats flip the governorship, they would hold a trifecta of power in the Virginia state government (they currently have a 21-19 majority in the Senate).
The elections this November will likely have significant legislative consequences as well. During his time as governor, Youngkin pushed for a 15-week abortion limit, which was thwarted by the Republican defeat in the 2023 Virginia Senate election. Now, state Democrats are proposing an amendment to enshrine the right to abortion, potentially up until the moment of birth, in the Virginia Constitution.
This makes control of the House of Delegates crucial for both sides. If Virginia Democrats take control and the abortion amendment proposition passes through the state House and Senate (the governor’s endorsement is not required), it will be on Virginia voters’ ballots next year.
The fates of several other Republican initiatives also hang in the balance of this November’s contests. Youngkin has, for instance, called for reform or outright repeal of the state’s car tax, as well as efforts to return some of the state’s $1.2 billion budget surplus to taxpayers.
Regardless of the impact of DOGE’s efforts, Virginia Republicans undoubtedly have political history working against them. In 2017 – the first year of Trump’s first term – Virginia’s elections were disastrous for the GOP. Democrat Ralph Northam won the governorship by almost nine percentage points, and Democrats flipped 15 House of Delegates seats, their largest swing in the chamber since 1899.
Four years later, during Biden’s first year in office, Virginia Republicans made a comeback.
Whether Trump can reverse this trend – and how DOGE’s “slash and burn” strategy impacts Virginia’s voter base – remains to be seen. But once again, it seems that national trends could go a long way toward determining Virginia’s political future.
Dominic Vogelbacher is a contributor for AMAC Newsline. He is a student at Washington and Lee University and Executive Editor of The Spectator, his school’s conservative newspaper.
