AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris
With more than two months still to go until Election Day, there are a number of potential developments that could yet shake up the midterms. Here are five that would instantly change the national political environment heading into the home stretch.
A Deliberate Leak That Joe Biden Won’t Run in 2024
As the fall approaches and Democrats feel the heat of public frustration at the dire state of the nation’s affairs, some in the President’s party and even his own White House may be tempted to do something desperate that they hope would change the political game. One strategy would undoubtedly instantly redraw the electoral landscape: dropping the bombshell that Biden will not seek reelection.
While the prospect of Biden himself announcing before November that he won’t run for a second term seems unlikely at this point, the choice may not be up to him alone. Cunning political operatives hoping to save Democrats’ chances might calculate that by preemptively rendering Biden a lame duck, they could turn the election from a referendum on Biden—as Republicans wish to style it—into more of a choice about the nation’s future governance.
Such a leak, whether from senior Democrats in Congress or perhaps even officials in Biden’s own White House, would do much to take the wind of voter anger out of Republicans’ sails. It would simply be difficult to arouse the same passions against a spent political force in Joe Biden. Meanwhile, many Republicans have built their entire message around opposition to Biden, often barely mentioning Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and the Democrat Congress. Democrats effectively announcing Biden’s imminent retirement would leave the GOP without a clear message in the closing stretch of the campaign and cut short the expected rallying effect of the President’s historic unpopularity.
For Democrats and the media, Biden has always been a blunt instrument to advance their own power. Don’t be surprised if they throw what’s left of his political career to the dogs this October if they think it will improve their chances in November.
A Major Development in the Hunter Biden Saga
According to information from anonymous sources late last month, Justice Department prosecutors are weighing possible criminal charges against the President’s son for his sketchy business dealings and involvement with foreign governments – charges that could implicate Joe Biden himself. Additionally, there are still a number of lingering questions about the FBI’s involvement in covering up the Hunter Biden laptop scandal ahead of the 2020 election. Just last week, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg admitted that the platform actively censored the story at the behest of the FBI.
According to a Rasmussen poll conducted after Joe Biden took office and mainstream outlets finally admitted that the Hunter Biden laptop was legitimate, two-thirds of voters believe the story is “important,” while 79% believe it could have changed the outcome of the 2020 election if it was not suppressed by the media. With pressure mounting on investigators to provide explanations for the string of suspicious payments to the Biden family, another major bombshell could be just around the corner. This time, voters will likely be far more skeptical of the inevitable media cover-up.
(More) Damaging Revelations About the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago Raid
Following the FBI’s raid on former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home, questions have emerged about the motivation for the raid and just how much senior members of the Biden administration – and the President himself – knew about the assault on Biden’s chief political rival. Following the release of a comically redacted affidavit that offers only a shoddy legal basis for the raid, and as Attorney General Merrick Garland continues to dodge questions about why it was necessary to send 30 armed agents to rifle through every slip of paper on Trump’s property for nine and a half hours, taking with them private and privileged material, it is increasingly obvious to voters that the raid was a blatant political hit job.
According to a recent Rasmussen Reports poll, a whopping 53% of voters agreed with the statement that the FBI has become “Joe Biden’s personal Gestapo.” America has not even begun to reckon with the profound concern and even genuine fear that realization may be inspiring in ordinary voters.
Conclusive evidence showing that the raid was indeed politically motivated, unjustified, or illegal would certainly raise the corruption of law enforcement institutions to become one of the top midterm issues for a vast swath of voters. Such a development would again lend credence to Trump’s persistent warnings about the unholy alliance between the Democratic Party and embedded career bureaucrats in the intelligence community.
Another Major Foreign Policy Disaster
Democrats have already seen one precipitous polling dip following Biden’s disastrous evacuation from Afghanistan one year ago. Then, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine exposed how little America’s adversaries fear the United States under Biden’s leadership. At the same time, the Biden team has remained stubbornly committed to re-entering the disastrous 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal while China has grown more aggressive toward Taiwan, alienating U.S. allies around the globe.
Should Ukraine completely fall, China move on Taiwan, or some other similarly calamitous world event occur in the next eight weeks, Biden – and by extension the Democratic Party – will likely see a backlash from voters, who will instinctively understand that Biden’s weakness provoked disaster.
Major Economic Downturn
Inflation remains near historic highs, the country is effectively in a recession (despite Democrats’ attempts to redefine the term) and gas prices are still nearly 40% higher than when Biden took office—but there is still time for things to get worse before Election Day. Home sales were down more than 12% in July, indicating that there may be trouble ahead in the housing market. Several major hedge funds are also predicting a major slide in the stock market in the coming months. A sharp economic downturn in October could seal Democrats’ fate in November.
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If these or any other unforeseen developments shake up the campaign between now and election day, Republicans must be ready to respond quickly and to capitalize on the opportunity. As we have been reminded time and again in recent cycles, the election is not over until it’s over—and circumstances often continue to shift dramatically right up until the voting stops. Given recent history, the smart money may well be on quite a few additional surprises before all is said and done.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_.