Democrats are currently favored to retake the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections this November (although that outcome still is far from certain), but their prospects are far more dicey in the U.S. Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.
In order to win control of the upper chamber, Democrats must successfully defend all of their seats and flip at least four Republican-held seats, or (even more unlikely) flip an additional GOP-held seat for every seat they lose. This unenviable position leaves them at the mercy of the weakest links in their candidate field. If even one incumbent fails to retain his or her seat, or if primary voters nominate one or two weak challengers for a Republican seat, Democrats’ dreams of retaking the Senate are all but crushed.
Here are the five candidates most likely to cost Democrats the Senate this November.
Roy Cooper – North Carolina
While the fact that Roy Cooper managed to win two terms statewide as a Democrat in the Tarheel State seems to bode well for his Senate prospects, that also means that he brings a governing record with him into the race. North Carolina has trended purple in recent years, but Cooper’s far-left record as governor is sure to feature heavily in Republican attack ads.
Most notably, in 2023, Cooper vetoed three bills that would have protected parental rights, the safety of children, and women’s sports. He vetoed the Parents’ Bill of Rights, which gave parents access to their children’s curricula and vital health information; House Bill 808, which prohibited gender transition surgeries for minors; and the Fairness in Women’s Sports Act, which prohibited males from competing on girls’ sports teams in North Carolina schools.
The North Carolina General Assembly ultimately overrode all of these vetoes, but Cooper must own them nonetheless now that he is asking voters for their support once again. Cooper took a hard left turn following his re-election, and North Carolinians are unlikely to take kindly to such a radical lurch.
Cooper is also facing off against an especially skilled opponent in former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. The polls currently show Cooper with a lead, but North Carolina has a history of breaking late for GOP candidates.
Jon Ossoff – Georgia
Jon Ossoff was elected in Georgia in a hotly contested run-off election in 2021 that effectively handed Democrats control of the Senate. Like North Carolina, Georgia has become more of a battleground in recent years, but Ossoff’s record is more fitting of a deep-blue stronghold like California or New York than a swing state.
In 2025, Ossoff notably voted against the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, which would have banned biological males from participating in women’s sports. A few years prior, in 2022, he voted for the so-called “Women’s Health Protection Act” that would have codified radical late-term abortion-on-demand in federal law.
Ossoff won by just a few percentage points in 2020 as part of a bad year for Republicans. If the GOP can fare even marginally better this year, they have a solid chance of knocking off Ossoff.
Abdul El-Sayed – Michigan
Michigan has one of the most hotly contested Democrat primaries in the country this year to replace the retiring Gary Peters (D). Incumbent U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens is facing off against State Senator Mallory McMorrow and physician Abdul El-Sayed, the son of Egyptian immigrants.
Initially, it looked like a two-way race between McMorrow and Stevens, but El-Sayed has made a late push and appears to have all the momentum. The primary election isn’t until August 4, so either of these three candidates could take the lead and win on Election Day.
But if El-Sayed does indeed pull out the surprise upset victory, it would seriously imperil Democrats’ chances of hanging on to this critical seat. El-Sayed has frequently promoted violent, anti-Semitic, and even pro-terrorist rhetoric, comments that would surely alienate moderate and Independent voters.
Earlier this year, for instance, El-Sayed said during a rally, “When they go low, we don’t go high. We take them to the mud and choke them out.” El-Sayed has also accused Israel of committing genocide, refused to disavow pro-terrorist left-wing agitator Hasan Piker, and defended terrorists as acting out of “pain and frustration.”
Michigan’s large and growing Muslim population could propel El-Sayed to victory in the Democrat primary. But the current Republican frontrunner, former Rep. Mike Rogers, would have a strong chance of defeating him in a general election, particularly if El-Sayed’s radical views are exposed on the debate stage.
James Talarico – Texas
Like clockwork, Democrats are once again telling anyone who will listen that they’re finally, really going to flip Texas this time. But just like every other time, they appear to have nominated a candidate who is far too radical to have any hope of winning the state.
The party likely believed that it dodged a bullet in the Democrat primary when Texas House Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. But while Crockett had a larger national profile, Talarico is just as radical.
Last year, for instance, he introduced House Bill 5310 in an effort to repeal Texas’s laws protecting the unborn. Talarico, who is currently studying to be a Presbyterian minister, has also stated that “God is non-binary,” said that Jesus is a “radical feminist” and wants people to be pro-choice, called for “tearing down” ICE, fought to let men compete in women’s sports, and claimed that there are six sexes, among other radical positions and statements.
Democrats’ hopes for flipping Texas appear to stem primarily from an ongoing messy primary between incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. But voters are likely to care far more about stopping a radical left-wing activist from being elected to the U.S. Senate than GOP infighting.
Mary Peltola – Alaska
Democrats are confident that former Rep. Mary Peltola can win Dan Sullivan’s seat in the Last Frontier because she won the statewide Alaska U.S. House district in 2022, becoming the first Democrat to do so in 50 years.
But the circumstances of Peltola’s victory leave plenty of reason to question Democrats’ optimism. Specifically, she won in a special election following the death of incumbent Don Young. Special elections are notoriously low-turnout affairs, particularly in a vast, remote state like Alaska.
2022 was also the first year that Alaska implemented ranked-choice voting (RCV). Under Alaska’s RCV system, no one won a majority of first-choice votes, and Peltola ultimately prevailed after other candidates were eliminated and their second-choice preferences were redistributed.
In that process, Republican Nick Begich III, who would have beaten every other candidate in head-to-head comparisons, was eliminated first because he had the fewest first-place votes. Begich subsequently defeated Peltola and won the seat in 2024.
There is a strong argument to be made that Peltola benefited heavily from confusion around RCV and how second and third-place votes were distributed. That’s much less likely to come into play now, four years later, as 2024 showed.
The odds of flipping four Senate seats in any cycle are slim. But given Democrats’ crop of candidates this year – and some of the candidates in seats they are trying to defend – the GOP has every reason to be optimistic that it can hang on so long as it takes nothing for granted and works hard between now and Election Day.
Alan Jamison is the pen name of a political writer with extensive experience writing for several notable politicians and news outlets.
