Chances the US is drawn into direct conflict with Iran, as well as support for Israel in response to an anticipated Hezbollah terrorist counterattack after Israel’s strike on a Hezbollah leader in Lebanon and presumed killing of the Hamas leader in Tehan last week – is high. Implications are serious.
Since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, and especially after Iran’s April 2024 missile barrage, the conflict between Israel and Iran via Iran’s surrogates in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has grown.
Arguably, narrow gauge attacks hit a new level last week, leading to a potentially broader exchange between Iran or Iran’s surrogates, namely Lebanon-based Hezbollah, and Israel.
What do we know? Five central facts.
First, Iran and Hezbollah, as they did prior to April’s major drone, cruise, and ballistic missile attack on Israel by Iran in April, have sworn to respond to the deaths of the Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
Iran’s surrogates have also sworn to open a “campaign on all fronts,” a “new phase” in the conflict. While words are cheap, threats frequent, and Israel ready, that implies a coordinated attack on Israel – and US bases in the region – by Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Yemen’s Houthi.
Iran is the self-evident coordinator of all these potential attacks and any “new phase” that broadens the conflict. That fact is well understood by all parties, and the US has pledged support.
Second, US pledges of military support to Israel under Biden-Harris, as well as leaders at DOD and State, have been inconsistent, weak, at times contradictory, and ineffective so far, with wild oscillations in foreign policy positions and engagement levels, no effect on Iran or the Gaza conflict.
When it comes to traditional deterrence, a show of force and promise of more if behaviors do not change, Biden-Harris, DOD’s Lloyd Austen, and State’s Tony Blinken have been utterly feckless. Worse than no show of force, they have oscillated between appeasing Iran and shaking a limp fist.
Iran has no respect for the Biden-Haris administration, which paid big money, freed billions in Iranian assets, dropped sanctions, and looked the other way at European violations. Iran also believes – with good reason – that Biden-Harris are spotty in support of Israel and afraid of war.
Third, if Iran or Hezbollah hits Israel harder this time than in April, the concepts of counterforce and counter-deterrence suggesting they may, things could spin out of control quickly.
Long before anyone talks of Iranian nuclear weapons, within short reach thanks to permissive policies by Obama-Biden and Biden-Harris, Iran possesses some 3,000 ballistic missiles able to hit Israel, another thousand precision-guided missiles, and their surrogates in Iraq have 300 more.
Compounding the potential for Iran and Iraqi surrogates to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome – ballistic missile defenses – absent more forward-leaning US support, the Iranian-supported terror group Hezbollah has at least 40,000 (possibly 120,000) rockets, and launched an attack that killed a dozen children in the Golan Heights last week.
Fourth, to be clear, Biden-Harris allowed Iran and Hezbollah to grow their respective arsenals, did nothing to contain, deter, or punish Iran, and instead awarded Iran billions in appeasement money before the October 7 attacks, rolling back Trump’s successful “economic strangulation” policies.
Fifth – a fact that cannot be ignored – the failed, dangerous, full-throttle appeasement of Iran by Biden-Harris, combined with ineffectual, unserious, non-credible foreign policy, has led Iran to believe they have a shot at taking Israel out, even if that draws the confused US into the war.
Behind the scenes, Iran and Hezbollah are poised to see how far they can go, how hard they can hit Israel without Biden-Harris responding, perhaps combining an offensive with attacks on US-bases in Iraq, at the periphery testing the US resolve with a global terror event.
While US forces are likely prepared to defend themselves and respond to attacks on US bases or a global terror event, uncertainty remains about how serious Biden-Harris is about defending Israel, if that pivotal US ally comes under direct attack from Iran.
Unfortunately, this week – and the months ahead – are likely to see a spike in Israeli conflict with Iran and Iran’s surrogates, which could draw the US into a broader war. If serious deterrence were ever needed, unequivocal commitments, and a show of preparedness and force, it is now.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.
