President Joe Biden has not had a press conference. No Commander-in-Chief for 100 years – back to pre-radio – has taken office and avoided one for so long. That could be a sign or nothing. We will learn this week – when he has his first.
Historically, presidents joust with reporters. A dogged press tries to keep the government honest. Candid exchanges of questions and answers inform the public, allow minds to meet, reassure the world our president is on the ball.
What concerns many is that, even with a softball, empathetic press, Biden seems afraid. The impression is that he avoids exchanges with the press, foreign leaders, and Congress – because he is not up to the task. Unfortunately, evidence builds.
No one will say so, but mentally and physically, Biden seems to be faltering, increasingly dependent on handlers. That has big implications. Beyond avoiding live exchanges, Biden continues to misfire, stumbling on facts – the name of the Pentagon and Secretary of Defense, Vice President Harris’ title, where he is. He loses his train of thought, staff clips events. Last week, he nearly fell – three times – boarding Air Force One.
Worse, Biden’s mental and physical deficits are affecting how allies and adversaries see American readiness, resolve, and engagement. As predicted, China’s President Xi and Russia’s Putin are now chiding Biden, challenging him to “live” conversations. The specter is embarrassing. His “too busy” rings hollow.
Odd too, Biden ducks and delegates live calls with foreign leaders to the Vice President, has not addressed the nation in a joint session, has held no town meetings or unscripted events. In effect, he is back in the basement.
Together, these facts produce uneasiness, not just for White House staff, media defenders, and top Democrats, but for all Americans and allies. Unconstitutional initiatives are being pushed – by Democrats – to remove Biden’s Commander-in-Chief authority over nuclear weapons, border enforcement, and other areas.
Privately, many are worried – aware of what is not there. The seminal question – unless Biden proves everyone wrong this week – is “How long can this go on?” In theory, a “roll him out, reel him in” approach to the presidency could persist. In practice, it is likely to breakdown – possibly in crisis – than persist.
History teaches us weakness invites foreign challenges. Closer to home, Biden’s health foreshadows a constitutional test. Putting social unrest, COVID weariness, economic struggles, election questions, and hyper-partisanship aside – Biden’s state of mind is likely to take us in one of four directions.
First, a long and painful taper could be coming. Moderate Democrats – an endangered species – will try to keep him there until an irreversible fumble. While weak, Biden is their only buttress against looming leftist leadership.
They will quiet talk about “fitness,” encourage management of his deficits, truncate authorities, and hope for the best. Their endgame is running out the clock, hoping to avoid crisis, setting up a 2024 contest within the party. The downside is that China, Russia, Iran, and others will not be fooled.
The second direction – which many believe inevitable – is invoking the 25th Amendment to remove a faltering president, or setting up a dignified resignation, and elevating Harris to President. To date, the Amendment has not been invoked, so lots of questions are unanswered, including foreign perceptions.
On the one hand, history argues against the move. It would be jarring. “Fitness for Office” has been stretched. Reluctance to set a precedent has produced accommodations – hiding of facts – around presidential disabilities.
That was the case when FDR began to fade in the final days of William Henry Harrison and Garfield. FDR’s disabilities were pronounced but hidden. Historians argue over how much they impaired judgment, including at Yalta. See, e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paralytic_illness_of_Franklin_D._Roosevelt.
Given that history, Democrats could go another direction. Reluctance to invoke the 25th Amendment could produce a compromise; the sort historically used to address “temporary” disabilities – usually expected to improve.
George Washington, Franklin Pierce, Grover Cleveland, and Woodrow Wilson had health scares, trigging delegation to vice presidents under Article II, Section 1’s direction that a President’s “inability to discharge the powers and duties …” causes them to “devolve on the Vice President.”
Even after the 25th Amendment, health issues produced delegations to vice presidents, including by Dwight Eisenhower to Richard Nixon (heart attack), by Ronald Reagan to George H.W. Bush (after the attempted assassination), and in less dramatic circumstances. But the idea was that these were temporary.
The idea seems hard to argue in Biden’s case. Still, some “temporary” delegation to Vice President Harris, awaiting some indefinite outcome, is vaguely possible. Truth is, most would see that development as a self-evident farce.
A last direction is the best hope – if highly unlikely. Biden, that vanishing moderate could stage a surprising comeback, conduct a strong, engaged press conference, forcefully addressing critics domestic and foreign, show a commanding knowledge of events. Do not count on it.
Where does that leave us? Telescoping into this week – expect a room of friendly reporters, apologists with stories written about how Biden outperformed low expectations. Expect easy, planted questions and practiced answers. And expect Biden to be Biden – weak, general, stumbling, volatile.
Bottom line: Americans and – and those who wish us ill – see the reality. They see a weak US leader. They infer America is stumbling. Whatever the future, we need to correct that perception. Our commitments to freedom at home and abroad must remain strong. In the meantime, prepare for Biden’s press conference – but do not hold your breath.