AMAC Exclusive – By Andrew Abbott
Ahead of his re-election bid next year, President Joe Biden is desperately trying to sell his economic record as a success story, trumpeting the supposed triumph of “Bidenomics.” But polling shows Americans aren’t buying it, and state-by-state data reveals serious flaws in the White House’s arguments.
As inflation has cooled this year from 40-year highs in 2022, elected Democrats and the mainstream media have proclaimed that Biden deserves credit for “lowering inflation.” But as conservatives have been quick to point out, a lower inflation number doesn’t mean things are getting less expensive – they’re just not getting more expensive as fast as they were one year ago. Inflation also still remains above the Fed’s two percent target rate.
Moreover, it was Biden’s gargantuan spending plans that sent inflation spiraling out of control in the first place. In touting “Bidenomics,” Democrats thus appear to want credit for (slightly) solving a problem that they themselves created.
Other metrics also paint a far less rosy picture of the economy than Democrats want to admit. Despite Biden’s claim earlier this month that “real wages for the average American worker is [sic] higher than it was before the pandemic,” a simple check of available economic data reveals that real wages have actually decreased slightly since March 2020, from $11.15 per hour to $11.05 per hour.
Another analysis from the Heritage Foundation earlier this year found that the average American family has become $7,400 poorer under Biden. Many business leaders are still predicting a recession in the near future, and layoffs in sectors like the tech industry are an ominous sign. U.S. business activity growth also slowed to a five-month low in July.
Most of the “Bidenomics” argument rests on comparisons between the economic state of the country today and during the depths of the pandemic – an intentionally dishonest comparison that ignores the unique situation Biden inherited as president.
For example, in December of last year, Biden claimed that he had created “more jobs than any administration in history at this point in his presidency.” But these were not “new” jobs being created. Rather, those numbers reflected workers returning to their old jobs. According to the New York Post, “In January 2020, per Federal Reserve data, there were 152 million non-farm U.S. employees. Last month, just 153 million.” In this context, Biden is actually far behind other recent presidents (and especially President Trump) in job creation.
Public polling suggests that the American people aren’t being swayed by Biden’s victory lap on the economy, either. Just 37 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, two points worse than his poor overall approval rating. Consumer spending is slumping, and small business sentiment remains subdued.
On questions that matter for working families—like whether they can afford to buy a home or a new car—Biden’s inflation has driven interest rates so high that many are struggling, the president’s deceptive claims notwithstanding.
Under the most generous interpretation, the American economy is doing… okay. It is true that the country has (so far) avoided the catastrophic economic collapse many experts feared. However, families are still struggling, and uncertainty continues to be the defining feature of Biden’s tenure.
Beneath the national numbers, there is another story that further undermines the “Bidenomics” argument. One of the biggest reasons the country’s overall economic numbers have looked somewhat positive is the relative prosperity seen in red states – which have rejected the “Bidenomics” model and liberal economic policies in general.
As the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board noted earlier this month, Biden “has Republican-led states to thank for the resilient U.S. economy and labor market.” While the White House has excitedly reported a 5.4 percent rise in earnings between the first quarters of 2022 and 2023, a state-by-state breakdown reveals that liberal states like New York, California, New Jersey, and Illinois saw much slower growth (2.6, 2.9, 4.3, and 4.6 percent, respectively) compared to red states like North Dakota, Florida, Nebraska, and Texas (9.7, 9.1, 8.6, and 7.7 percent, respectively).
Population trends also show that Americans are flocking to red states like Tennessee, Florida, and Texas, while fleeing liberal havens like California, New York, and Illinois. Lower taxes and less regulation in red states are clearly spurring growth, while classic tax-and-spend liberal policies – the basis of “Bidenomics” – are hampering growth in blue states.
Far from the typical narrative parroted in the mainstream media about blue states “subsidizing” red states, it appears to be the success of red states that is masking a far more dire situation in blue states – and lending “Bidenomics” a thin veneer of legitimacy.
If Biden truly wanted to have the U.S. economy humming again and build an economic record to be proud of, he would do well to follow what conservative lawmakers have been doing from the beginning, rather than trying to leech off their success.
Andrew Abbott is the pen name of a writer and public affairs consultant with over a decade of experience in DC at the intersection of politics and culture.
