President Joe Biden is set to host a summit this weekend with leaders from Australia, India, and Japan, the so-called “Quad” diplomatic network. But Indo-Pacific security specialists I spoke with said the meeting is unlikely to alleviate tensions as China continues to take full advantage of Biden’s weakened position.
As Biden prepares to exit the political stage, the reality is that the world and the Indo-Pacific region in particular have only become more unstable under his watch. While Biden billed his foreign policy approach as “practical diplomacy,” the results have been dismal at best.
One official from a Quad country, who spoke to me under the condition of anonymity, described the situation under Biden as one of “non-stop severe turbulences.” Biden was “supposed to be a captain,” this official said, “but his leadership is missing.”
My source also warned that Trump’s assessment of the looming danger of war in the region is exactly correct. “President Trump tells you the truth,” he said. “World War III is extremely near.”
A look at security developments in the Indo-Pacific over the past two months illustrates just how dire the situation is and presents a stark backdrop for Biden’s meetings on Saturday.
In August, China again increased its incursions into Taiwanese airspace, continuing a pattern that has dramatically worsened under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. A Chinese spy plane also entered Japanese airspace for the first time since World War II.
In early September, Russia and China also conducted a large-scale joint naval exercise which involved more than 400 warships and 90,000 personnel. Just this week, a Chinese aircraft carrier crossed into Japanese waters just 24 miles from a Japanese intelligence observation point. A day later, on September 18, North Korea test-fired ballistic missiles that fell into the ocean near Japan’s exclusive economic zone.
Recent satellite photos have also shown an expansion of China’s naval base near the Senkaku Islands, raising concerns in Tokyo about potential disruptions to its connection with Taiwan.
The Defense Ministries of Japan and Taiwan have expressed fear that China might also launch an attack on the Philippines, potentially even mounting a ground invasion. China is now preparing to launch its third aircraft carrier, a development that will augment its ability to conduct long-range military operations throughout the South Pacific. Experts believe the ship could be ready as early as next year.
Beijing’s rhetoric and aggressive diplomatic posture have been just as concerning as its military endeavors. China is now making unfounded claims to most of the West Philippine Sea, including the Escoda Shoal, which falls within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. This month, Beijing dispatched some 203 vessels to crowd the waters around the shoal in its largest display of force yet.
With its coast guard ships, the Chinese navy now regularly rams Philippine fishing vessels and patrol ships. In one incident earlier this summer, a Chinese boat rammed a Philippine ship that was trying to re-supply an outpost. The Chinese sailors on board had bladed weapons and spears according to Gen. Romeo Brawner, the Philippines’ military chief of staff.
While Chinese officials have insisted that they just want Chinese boats to be able to fish in the disputed waters, a security expert I spoke with said that all of the areas China is contesting are strategically important for a potential invasion of Taiwan. The Taiwanese defense ministry believes that any Chinese invasion would start with a missile barrage from the northern part of the Philippine Sea, right where China is now claiming water rights.
As a former high-ranking NATO official who wished to remain anonymous since he advises a government in the Indo-Pacific told me, Chinese President Xi Jinping “is brilliant in concealing his violent plan.” Another military official told me that Xi has “spent three years building obstacles and stoking fear in the region from the north of Japan to the north of Australia.”
“Xi has determined that the Philippines pose the greatest threat to Chinese expansion or an invasion of Taiwan,” he added. “This appears to be lost on the current White House.”
Seven security experts I spoke with, including former NATO officials, said that the best hope now for avoiding war is a significant increase in Taiwan’s defense spending.
Former President Donald Trump has called for Taiwan to boost its military budget, although critics have misconstrued this as suggesting that he would not be committed to Taiwan’s independence. As one former NATO defense official told me, “If Taiwan acts on Trump’s suggestion, it would create the best potential for defeating the CCP’s aggression.” Dr. Richard Fisher, a China specialist and former advisor to U.S. House Republicans, told me that with the right investment Taiwan could possess all the resources it needs to fend off China and avoid relying completely on the United States.
But Taiwan’s security as well as overall peace in the Indo-Pacific may well hinge on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election this fall. Biden has only careened the world toward war and will likely have few answers for America’s allies when he meets with them this weekend.
Harris’s policy – to the extent that she has articulated any – seems to be a rinse-and-repeat of Biden’s failed approach.
The best hope, then, for peace, appears to be Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
