America’s mining future could be at stake in the 2024 election – in particular the increasingly important copper mining industry.
Demand for copper is expected to grow dramatically in the years ahead, with McKinsey & Company predicting that the United States will need nearly 30 percent more copper by 2035. Despite this, however, the U.S. produced 11 percent less copper in 2023 than 2022, even as global copper production increased by 5.3 percent.
According to analysts from the Copper Development Association, the industry contributed $160.6 billion to U.S. GDP and supported nearly 400,000 jobs in 2023. The metal is a vital resource in the expansion of the American data center and semiconductor industries, which the administration and both parties in Congress have said they view as a priority. The semiconductor industry in particular has faced copper shortages in recent years, forcing manufacturers to search for alternative options that are often more expensive and less effective.
Despite this, however, the Biden-Harris administration has waged a regulatory war on the copper mining industry to appease environmental groups. The White House’s policies now pose daunting obstacles for investors, from suffocating red tape to arbitrary bans, stifling progress and innovation.
Earlier this year, the administration rejected a proposal for a major mining project in Alaska to reach an estimated $7.5 billion copper deposit. That decision came just one day before Earth Day, giving the impression that the move was motivated more by politics than by legitimate environmental concerns.
Back in 2022, the Biden Department of the Interior also canceled leases for two copper and nickel mines in Minnesota. A year prior, the administration canceled plans for another mine in Arizona.
Retired Professor of Geology Jean-Marie Lachapelle, who advised significant mining companies such as BP Minerals America and Cominco Ltd. in Canada between the late 1960s and 80s, told me that the slowdown in new mining projects in the United States should be alarming for Americans.
“All existing projects are based on excavations in the 1970s and 1980s,” he said. “Much more new investment is needed to meet current demand. The U.S. should keep a minimum level of investment, as it has significant copper resources, especially in Minnesota and Arizona.”
Professor Lachapelle also told me that some mining projects in the United States, for copper as well as other minerals, have been waiting nearly 30 years for approval, and new regulations from Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency may extend this timeline by another decade. “Uncertainty is not an investor’s friend,” he said.
The U.S. mainly imports copper from Latin America, especially Peru and Chile. However, experts I spoke with told me that U.S. trade agreements give foreign sellers an advantage, reducing the bargaining power of American buyers.
Along with making the United States more reliant on foreign imports, Biden-Harris administration actions stifling copper production have also directly undermined Democrats’ own ambitions for a “green revolution.” With its exceptional electrical conductivity, copper is a crucial component in lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind farms. “You can’t have green energy without mining,” Mark Senti, chief executive of Florida-based rare earth magnet company Advanced Magnet Lab Inc. told Reuters. “That’s just the reality.”
However, copper was not included as a critical mineral in Biden’s so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” (IRA), Democrats’ green energy slush fund. As a result, copper projects do not qualify for tax credits, even though the other projects that do qualify under the IRA are expected to drive the demand for copper even higher.
Economist Dr. Johann Gunnarsen, who advised mining companies in Australia, Japan, and the U.S. during the 1990s, told me that a “powerful alliance of environmental groups, local politicians, and federal agencies has significantly increased investment risks” for copper mining projects. “Today, many firms perceive this alliance as a threat similar to corruption in places like Africa.”
As Dr. Gunnarsen also explained, securing copper and other “critical metal supplies” is an essential step in reshoring American industry and could have a cascading effect throughout the U.S. economy. When American firms know that they have reliable sources of raw materials at home, they are more likely to invest in the United States rather than foreign nations.
While Biden and Harris both claim that they believe in “made in America” principles, their approach to domestic mining is just one more example of how their policies undermine their stated goals.
The U.S. would likely see a new direction – or rather a return to an old one – should Donald Trump retake the presidency this November. During his first term, Trump prioritized new mining projects while also balancing environmental concerns.
This year, Trump has likewise pledged to ensure the United States has the “cleanest air and cleanest water in the world.” He has also promised to unleash American energy and American industry by effectively harnessing America’s natural resources.
Demand for copper will continue to grow regardless of who wins the White House next month. The only question is whether or not American miners will be empowered to meet that demand.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
