AMAC EXCLUSIVE
With the Iranian regime bringing the Middle East ever closer to all-out war, the Biden administration has utterly failed to pressure Tehran’s allies in Beijing to contribute to averting further bloodshed that could imperil U.S. – and Chinese – economic interests.
Iran’s barrage of missile attacks on Israel over the weekend was just the latest escalation of a brewing conflict. Tehran launched more than 300 suicide drones and missiles against the Jewish state, thankfully resulting in minimal damage as most were intercepted high above the ground.
However, Iran has been fueling unrest for months in the region through its terrorist proxies – most notably the October 7 Hamas attack on Israeli civilians.
The ongoing attacks of Iranian-backed Houthis on ships in the Red Sea are another major crisis. Last November, the Houthis hijacked a commercial ship, and have since damaged at least 34 vessels, injuring and killing dozens through missile attacks.
On March 6, a missile attack on the True Confidence cargo ship left three dead. While the vessel was Liberian, it was carrying steel products from Lianyungang, a city in northeastern China, to ports in Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
The story highlighted the threat from Iran-backed instability to China’s vital trade interests in the Middle East, even as Beijing continues to enjoy friendly ties with Tehran.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank that monitors worldwide trade, the Houthi attacks have already reduced shipping through the Suez Canal by more than half – an amount that constitutes 21 percent of global energy transit and 60 percent of all trade traffic from Asia. Though most of that trade has been rerouted, it prolongs delivery deadlines, raises costs, and cuts into profits for Asian firms.
Julian Hinz, Director of the Kiel Institute’s Center for Trade Policy, has said that even if trade volumes normalize, the terrorist threat will continue to impact decisions in the long run.
Experts in the region whom I spoke with said that an easy and simple first step Biden should have taken to place pressure on both China and Iran should have been to publicly call out Beijing for failing to condemn Tehran’s actions in the Middle East. Thus far, China has failed to act either diplomatically or contribute financially, even to stop attacks on shipments of their own products.
Professor Crescenzo Manzoni, a retired professor of politics and international affairs who served as an advisor on China to NATO in the 1990s, told me that Beijing “likes to be called a responsible partner, but regularly escapes accountability.”
“No one is naïve,” he said. “China most likely will do nothing, but Biden demanding action would unmask their sheer cynicism and wickedness.”
Manzoni added that the battle against the Chinese Communist Party’s creeping influence around the world must include strong rhetoric from American leaders in particular, which he called “a more powerful weapon than any nuclear missile, which we learned during the Cold War.” But, he said, “Sadly, this White House has abandoned that strategy.”
According to him, Biden should follow President Ronald Reagan’s example when the Soviet Union shot down a Korean Airlines civilian aircraft and explain “whom America confronts in the Red Sea and the Middle East” – namely, Iran.
“Biden should clarify that Iran is a close ally of China,” Manzoni said. “It should be obvious for Americans that Beijing is actively refusing to curb Tehran.” Biden taking such action would be a “game changer” because “it would reveal the truth that most Western media conceal.”
Former professor of strategy and international security Joaquín Isidro Escárcega, an advisor to prominent Spanish politician and former Prime Minister Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo, offered his analysis that “the era of peace in the world ended with Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and China’s unwillingness to challenge it.” With that precedent set, Tehran felt empowered to advance its own malign interests in the Middle East.
“Beijing’s hostility to the West was not secret since the Tiananmen Square massacre, but its reaction to Crimea made that fact doubtless,” he said, emphasizing that China shares the Soviet Union’s weaknesses.
“Biden should show the world the bill for U.S. defense operations in the Middle East and indicate how much American families and taxpayers are financing,” Escárcega said, adding that Biden should demand China pay for American efforts that ultimately defend Chinese commerce. This would be a “serious blow to China’s image.”
While the exact figures have not been disclosed, it is likely that the cost of U.S. operations defending trade routes in the Middle East is running well into the tens, and perhaps the hundreds of millions of dollars. Each interceptor launched by the U.S. military to take down Houthi missiles costs upwards of $100,000.
Retired Rear Admiral Tom Drugan, a former commanding officer on a guided missile destroyer, told me that things are “not slowing down” and likely won’t be anytime soon. “Unfortunately, there appears to be a steady stream of arms flowing to the Houthis,” he said, adding that a flood of low-cost weapons could be intended to “deplete U.S. inventories.”
“While I have my doubts about Beijing’s willingness to pay, their refusal would starkly contrast with their polished statements, exposing the gap between words and reality,” Professor Manzoni remarked, advocating for a more muscular stance from America.
Manzoni further highlighted the audacity of Xi’s simultaneous promotion of his Belt & Road railway route as an alternative to the Red Sea, calling it a “mockery of the American effort” in the region.
One former high-ranking official in the Chinese Communist Party, who spoke to me on the condition of anonymity, told me that the CCP “views itself as at war with America and the West.”
“It wants to plunder your arsenals and weaken your economy,” he continued.
So far, Biden’s inaction has allowed that plan to succeed.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
