As a teen, I did magic shows at birthday parties. Overriding principle – misdirection. To perform magic, you create an expectation and then upend it. You win confidence because people are surprised, and excited when they are. Are Democrats planning “magic” – Biden’s exit, new nominee? Beware, the hare.
In short, Democrat primaries finish June 8. Biden has won them all, nine left, Kentucky and Oregon on May 21, Idaho on May 23, then DC, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota on June 4, and Guam and Virgin Islands on June 8. Then, it’s all done!
Or is it? Right now, Biden and Harris seem foregone, convention three months off, August 19-20. But the world is upside down. Biden is ailing, and the polls plunging. He would be 86 at the close of his second term if he made it. Harris is a total loss, even in her own party, with no confidence.
Moreover, unlike years when a candidate – say Harry Truman in 1948, Jimmy Carter in 1980, or George HB Bush in 1992 – was lagging but hopeful, hope is nowhere to be found. Biden is missing steps, cues, words, phrases, dates, and places, only half present on his good days. Harris is disdained, cringe her constant companion, horror muttered by Democrats at her replacing Biden.
So, what could happen? As the press oohs, boos, moans, groans, cheers, and fears Donald Trump, something may be happening behind the curtain, Democrats planning a Disappearing Act pre-convention, Biden stepping aside for “the younger generation,” a trap door.
Do Democrat rules allow it? Yes. Has a candidate ever captured all delegates and lost? No. What would have to happen for this to occur? Five things.
First, the Biden-Harris tailspin would have to accelerate, making pledged delegates and superdelegates more uneasy, almost panicked. That may be happening.
Second, backroom DC would have to be quietly vetting replacements, from Governors Newsom (CA), Murphy (NJ), Whitmer (MI), and Pritzker (IL) to members of Congress, wannabes like Sen. Booker (NJ), Warren (MA), Sherrod Brown (OH), Bernie Sanders (VT), mayors, such Mitch Landrieu (New Orleans), Pete Buttigieg (IN, Transportation Secretary), and progressives like Rep. Ro Khanna (CA), Stacey Abrams (GA), AOC (NY), Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton.
For those who think these names are crazy, recall Barack Obama, chief credentials “activist,” undistinguished lawyer, minority, not Hillary Clinton – who grabbed a Senate seat, then White House, and brazenly set the course for “fundamental transformation” of America.
Third, media and social media, the great Democrat enablers, would have to be ready to go along, jump ship on Biden, let him fall through the trapdoor. They are hinting at it, with “in the know” outlets suggesting it could happen. Shadowboxing with what those outlets are others, loudly dismissing the idea, “Lady doth protest too much.”
Fourth, Big Money Democrats –“dark money” and open mega-donors – would have to push Biden, and Harris to step through the trap door. So far, high tech, high left, high labor unions, and the just plain high support Biden, but will that last?
Fifth, Biden, Harris, and those around them – starting with Dr. Jill – would have to weigh possible outcomes, and conclude getting humiliated, in the end, was a worse outcome – legally, politically, and personally – than bowing out and spending all that Chinese money.
This last requirement is the toughest. Biden is resolved he is “just fine,” convinced Afghanistan, Ukraine, Iran, China, and Gaza are victories, economy, border, drugs, housing, all the rest fine.
As long as Biden thinks the border is secure, inflation and interest down, parents the problem, abortion Catholic, Afghanistan free, Iran legitimate, China a friend, Egypt led by Mexico’s president, his own lineage “proudly” Jewish, Irish, Cuban, Greek, Turkish, Armenian, Arab, Polish, Black, and his uncle “eaten by cannibals,” getting him to drop out …may be tough.
But as weeks click by, watch closely. Do NOT put the possibility of a Biden vanishing act out of mind. The way magic works is, that you think the coin is in the right hand, the card is in the middle of the deck, and rabbits are nowhere until the coin shows up in the left, the card is on top of the deck, and the rabbit from the hat. Beware, the hare.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.
